The Northside Lounge A Chicago Cubs blog with an occasional tangent on pop culture |
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Thursday, October 27, 2005
Complete the sequence: Red Sox, White Sox, ______Are you watching this, Jim Hendry?The White Sox have won the World Series. Congratulations to their fans (the ones that don't slap Craig Biggio's wife or beat up umpires). Shame on Cubs management for not finding a way to accomplish said feat even once in 97 years. (Although in fairness, if we had gotten half the umpiring breaks in '03 that they got this year we'd have one already.) Let's hope somebody decides its time to get serious about winning now. (If I followed the pattern, this would be the paranthetical jealous slap at the Sox, but the infintesimal likelihood of anyone at the Trib getting serious about winning has depressed me so much I will instead return to my Civ 4 game now.) : | Friday, October 21, 2005
Rockin' in Charm CityLeo Mazzone is leaving Atlanta for the Baltimore Orioles, apparently mostly because they are doubling his salary to $500,000. That is to say, the Braves seem to be of the opinion that Leo Mazzone isn't worth 1/30th of what Mike Hampton is making this year.Now I am generally skeptical that there is a huge amount of difference between one major league coach and the next. Not that they don't provide a worthwhile service, but I generally feel there is a large pool of potential coaches not much better or worse than the guys who actually hold the jobs. Mazzone is an exception. He has had the most effective staff in the majors for fifteen years, with hardly a down year in the bunch. Year in and year out, he turns guys like Jorge Sosa (13-3, 2.55 in 2005), Jaret Wright (15-8, 3.28 in 2004), Damian Moss (12-6, 3.42 in 2002), and John Burkett (12-12, 3.04 in 2001) into upper-echelon pitchers despite their lack of success either before or after they work with him. He's built great bullpens just about every year, showing no hesitation to work in pitchers fresh out of A-ball and more often than not getting them to produce. At some point, its got to be more than a cooincidence. But now the penny-wise, pound-foolish Braves have decided he isn't worth an extra $250,000, and the Orioles have themselves a new pitching coach. I don't claim Peter Angelos is any great shakes as an owner, but that blind squirrel has found a nut today. Meanwhile, the Cubs (79-83) have brought back their entire coaching staff, and there is nary a nut to be found. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Ninety-seven years and counting. : | Sunday, October 16, 2005
Playoffs? Pfff.When I was in montessori school some twenty-four years ago, kids who misbehaved were sent to sit in "the no-fun chair," a red chair in the corner where you had to sit while not getting to participate in all the fun and excitement of the montessori classroom. That's about what October has felt like.None of the four teams that made it to the ALCS would place in the top-half if I ranked the teams I'd like to see win the World Series from 1-30. Only the Angels (losing in an elimination game as I type) would escape the bottom quartet (Yankees, Cardinals, White Sox, and Astros). In fact, for a few days I had trouble repressing my hatred for all concerned enough to make a "lesser of two evils" pick to root for. It is on that note that I would like to thank The Genius for reminding me that he and the Cardinals have earned their place in the gutter of my esteem. His petty tantrum after Jason Marquis walked Lance Berkman on four pitches each clearly outside the strike zone got that message through to me loud and clear. Aside from delaying the game to make sure everyone knew that everything revolves around him, he upped the ante by trying to bully his way past the crew chief to get at the home plate umpire. Kudos to Tim McClelland for standing his ground and getting the brat off the field so the men could go back to playing baseball. By men, I am obviously not including Jim Edmonds. Not to be left out of the crybaby sweepstakes, Edmonds managed to get something meaningful attached to his name in the boxscore by moaning about balls and strikes and earning an early shower. La Russa and Edmonds, both putting their personal arrogance ahead of what's best for their team- shocking, isn't it? Gonfalon Cubs BlogWhat is Gonfalon Cubs Blog? Its the new Cubs blog at Baseball Think Factory. Their tagline is "Baseball for the thinking fan," a concept they have decided to throw out the window by asking me to run their Cubs section. The best part about BTF is the depth of knowledge their commenters have (no slight to you loyal NL readers), so that alone should be worth a visit. Also Mike Isaacs and Luke Jasenosky, two very sharp Cub fans from a mailing list I frequent, are going to be writing there as well. I plan to do mostly news and the more stat-heavy stuff over there while keeping more personal items (like trashing Tony La Russa) over here, so if you are in to the analysis side of things come check us out.Hey, the Angels are up 3-2. Hope is not dead. : | Tuesday, October 11, 2005
2nd Annual CBA Predictions Contest: Results!The key to a strong finish in this year's contest was faith in Derrek Lee and lack of faith in anything else wearing Cubbie blue. Our overall winner, a blogger, rode pessimistic predictions for runs scored and allowed, wins, and finish to a commanding nine-point lead over second place. That winner was...wait for it... ME! As much as it breaks my heart to have to tell you this, it seems that yours truly has won the 2005 CBA Predictions contest. I had the team down for 84 wins, 726/692 scored and allowed, third place, and Lee to win OBP and homers. Of course, it would be awfully fishy to claim the prizes in my own contest, so I have decided to pass the winner's prize to the runner-up, Paul Gibson of 1060 West. He takes home his choice of $100 in Wrigleyville Sports merchandise or a Ron Santo prize pack detailed below. The high-scoring reader was Brian Olmstead, who was a bit less pessimstic but nailed Jason Dubois as trade bait and Aramis Ramirez as a Cub All-Star, to name a few. He'll take the remaining prize that Paul passes on.
Finally, I'd like to thank everyone for participating. I fully intend to run the contest again next year, so come back and compete next year, and for goodness sakes, dont trust in Dusty if you want to win anything.
: | Monday, October 10, 2005
Sad SundayThere is no joy in Mudville, or in my house this weekend. Georgia Tech dominated N. C. State Thursday night, but scored only 14 points and dropped the winning touchdown pass into the hands of an opposing safety to blow the game. Georgia won a big game Saturday, which brought me about as much joy as listening to Sox fans wax braggadocious this winter will. Saturday night Costa Rica annihilated the US 3-0 in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated. Admittedly, we were playing a B lineup with nothing on the line (since we've already qualified for Germany), but losing 3-0 is still losing 3-0. The Falcons lost their star quarterback, managed a heroic comeback behind backup QB Matt Schaub, tied the defending champs with three minutes left, and let them drive down the field to kick a game-winning chip-shot field goal. Then the Braves...I was playing disc golf early yesterday afternoon on a heavily wooded course that I somehow forgot I had vowed to never play on again. Through twelve holes I was 15 over par and had walked through more than enough brambles, spider webs, and poison ivy for one day. I quit and remained the parking lot while the rest of my group played the last six holes. One of the softball players in the parking lot had a score- 5-1 Braves. When my fellow disc golfers returned and got in the car, it had become 6-5 Braves in the ninth, and Kyle Farnsworth was on. This pleased me, since
As you probably know, Farnsworth mowed down the first two hitters before giving up a drive to center that cleared a painted yellow line by a couple inches for the game-tying home run- off the bat of Brad Ausmus no less. I hate yellow-line home runs. There should be a fence, and if the ball goes over it it's a home run and if it doesn't it's not. From there, an amazing nine more innings of baseball. A would-be game-winning homer misses the foul pole by maybe an inch (Chip Caray said on the radio that it might have hit the foul pole had it had raised seams.) 7+ innings of no-hit baseball from the Braves bullpen. Two at-bats from Roger Clemens, who ended up the winning pitcher when Chris Burke finally overcame Down Syndrome to hit a game-winner in the 18th. All in all, I can't say this game matches the 16-inning classic in Houston in 1986, but it might be the second greatest baseball game I've ever seen. Clemens being the winning pitcher bugs me, not so much because I hate to see him win as because it was a missed opportunity for him to be the goat, an outcome that would have warmed my heart. So all in all, it was one of the most amazing sports weekends imaginable, only with every outcome worse than the one that preceded it. Oh, and everyone in Louisiana, Guatemala, and Kashmir is dead. Wheee. I'll have CBA Predictions results and that promised announcement maybe as soon as this evening. Till then, may our Mondays be better than our weekends. : | Sunday, September 25, 2005
They died in the rainLike an entry to the Bad Hemmingway Imitation contest, the Cubs finally, mercifully, gave up the ghost on a wet Saturday afternoon in Chicago. Better yet, they did it with a loss to a key rival, propelling them on toward the playoffs. We now officially have nothing to play for, unless you count our outside chance at reaching .500.I'll have final results of the CBA Preditions Contest and an announcement both coming in the next week to ten days. There is an awful lot of work to be done to get this team back in contention, and although I am pessimistic that we have the people in charge to accomplish that task I am still going to cross my fingers and hope. Let's go Cubs. : | Friday, September 16, 2005
Sibling RivalryI sat in a hotel room in Birmingham, Alabama, last night watching the Cubs make a last, last, last ditch effort to prevent the Cardinals from clinching the Central on our field. They succeded, sort of, in a comedy of errors set to a torrential downpour, but the game was eventually called and by the time I awoke the Cardinals were indeed, inevitable, division champs.It occurred to me the other day that my analogy of US/Mexico to Cubs/Cardinals the other day was more accurate than I gave myself credit for, if only I had swapped the respective parties. Many Mexicans see the United States as a kind of an older sibling, always richer, stronger, more respected, and to be honest kind of a bully. Until the last few years, they at least always had soccer to fall back on, but recently that has taken a turn as well. Mexico hasn't beaten the US outside Mexico in six years, notably losing a quarterfinal elimination match in the World Cup two years ago. Two weeks ago (I faintly recall through a euphoric drunken haze) we beat them again, 2-1 to earn a trip to Germany for the next World Cup. Simillarly, we tend to suffer at the hands of the Cardinals year-in and year-out. Once in a blue moon we manage to claw our way past them, metaphorically locking them in their room and celebrating our victory ('84, '03), but sooner rather than later they get out of their room, return promptly to thrashing us within an inch of our lives, and the natural order is restored. And so it has gone again. Last night the Cardinals captured their second division title in a row, each by huge margins, after we managed to steal one by the skin of our teeth in 2003. Unlike with US/Mexico, there are no built-in structural reasons we shouldn't be able to overcome our tormentors, but as long as ownership continues to hire people who make bad baseball decisions, our results are unlikely to improve over what we have seen for the last 90+ years. Sigh. : | Monday, September 05, 2005
DOS Y CEROIf you want the long, occasionally tedious story of my trip you can read it here. Its been two years since the Cubs made me feel like that. May it happen again soon. : | Wednesday, August 31, 2005
KatrinaI've long been a natural disaster afficianado, particularly when it comes to meterology, but a few more like this and I think I may have had enough. This afternoon I came across an uncannily prescient article describing New Orleans and the Big One. Google started me on the second page, and I read most of the way down before I figured out the article was written long before Katrina arrived.My father volunteered to go down to Mississippi to represent his employer in relief efforts, so he is somewhere near Biloxi as I type. My employer (Southern Company, owner of Mississippi Power) may issue a call for people willing to head down at which point I'd likely be joining him. For the time being, try to send a few bucks to the Red Cross Hurricane 2005 fund or some other relief organization. Tonight I'll send half my poker winnings, so root for me. Pocket aces for hurricane relief, baby! UPDATE: Bayou celebrates!You know I'm automatic. Ten people sat down at the table in my living room tonight, but only one was playing for the kids (and using a karma-riffic Beau Rivage Biloxi chip as a card protector to boot). I battled all night, and at the end my cowboys held up against A2s for the championship. $20 to cover a buyin and a rebuy, $47 to buy three gallons of gas on the way to Columbus this weekend, and $47 for the kids.I'm happy I won our game and get to brag a bit, but in all seriousness please remember the situation hundreds of thousands of our friends are facing right now. If you can spare some cash, they could really use the help. : | Tuesday, August 30, 2005
Cutting baitJim Hendry is doing one thing right- he has recognized that the Cubs have virtually no chance to make the playoffs now (around a tenth of a percent on the playoff-o-meter) and is making moves accordingly. Lawton was sent to the Yankees for Justin Berg. Todd Hollandsworth has now been dealt to Atlanta for Angelo Burrows and Todd Blackford. Kerry Wood has been shutdown for the season and will have arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder tomorrow.Ideally, Hendry would have realized where the Cubs stood before we reached this point. Heck, ideally he would have realized that Todd Hollandsworth ceased to be one of the twenty-five best options we had for a major league roster spot sometime in late spring. Furthermore, none of the prospects he has acquired has much potential of ever seeing a major league roster. Still, its better to make these moves and at least try to convert 2005's sunk costs into 2006's capital. Cutting bait on 2005 is good, but the fact remains that the big fish is still flopping around stinking the joint up. Hendry has made some good personnel moves, probably more good than bad. If he cans Dusty I'm willing to give him another chance. If he won't... we're better off without either of them. : | Thursday, August 25, 2005
You know the drillI followed the game from work through Yarbage, and when I headed home we held a 1-0 lead and Mark Prior seeemed to be in complete control. Then I got whipped in tennis, then I returned to the internet to find we had lost 3-1, then I saw highlights of Aramis going down like an antelope made prey on Mutual of Omaha, and finally I busted out on the bubble in our weekly poker tournament. Good times!Glendon Rusch against Jason Vargas tomorrow as the Marlins come to town for three. Although hope is pretty well buried at this point (playoff-o-meter somewhere below 1% when it gets updated today), one of the things that makes baseball special is that there is a long time between "probably over" and "absolutely positively irrevocably dead and gone." That makes autumn witherings like this awfully grueling. The upside is it allows for miraculous, life-affirming comebacks on occasion, or at least so fans of other franchises tell me. Oh well, maybe the miracle starts tomorrow. Let's go Cubs. : | Monday, August 22, 2005
ContentAs August wears on and the Cubs show little sign of a resurrection, its becoming post mortem season. I'm listening to Pat and Ron drool over every potential free-agent on the Braves roster, and I've got to admit 2006 seems a more likely World Series date than later this year.Discussion on a Cubs mailing list I subscribe to today concerned an article from the Daily Southtown in which Andy MacPhail reflected on his last eleven years in charge of the Cubs. A couple selected quotes: I am very content with Jim, and I know he is very content with Dusty. I'm confident the formula is going to get us there. Despite what appears now to be a hovering around .500 year, I'm confident we are going in the right direction. In a vacuum, I would put very little in a vague vote of confidence like this. Obviously MacPhail isn't ready to make a move (since he hasn't as of this writing), and as long as he is not pulling the trigger I wouldn't expect him to publically undermine his employees. In a vacuum, I'd take these statements to mean MacPhail was probably terribly dissatisfied with the team's accomplishments the last two seasons but just didn't want to say so to a reporter. The part that worries me is we aren't in a vacuum. We've got years, decades- arguably an entire century of evidence that the team's management is congenitally incapable of putting together a winning baseball team. I'd lay good odds that MacPhail meant what he said and said what he meant, and I fear that means we'll all be asking ourselves what went wrong for many Augusts to come. : | Monday, August 08, 2005
Always look on the bright side of lifeIf Brian's fellow hanger-abouts could sing cheery songs in the situation they were in, so can I. This weekend's sweep at the hands of the Mets marks another new low in a season that has had more than its share. It culminated in Sunday's game when our one reliable pitcher couldn't even be relied on to defeat his Bizzaro namesake Victor. The Playoff-o-meter is down to 3%, a new low for the season and yet a value that, truth be told, sounds insanely optimistic.As this team looks towards next year, its not without strengths. There is pitching talent, two star hitters in their primes, and a handful of promising young position players ready to break onto the scene. Its going to take some succesful moves from Mr. Hendry to make it happen though, and the first needs to be severing ties with Dusty Baker. He has always made lousy tactical and player-selection decisions, but the arguement in his favor has been that he has an ability to get more out of his teams than their talent would suggest. Unfortunately, that talent never existed or else he lost it sometime in between Game Six and today. The nicest thing I can say about him after three years is he is an improvement on Don Baylor, and that's not a rosy enough resume to keep him around. Will Hendry have the courage to pull the trigger? I have no idea. In fact, I can't even be sure he sees Dusty as a problem. Still, if the Cubs limp through the last two months playing the way they played the last week, public pressure should mount to the point where Hendry will have to at least consider making a move. I'm not quite at the point where I can bring myself to actively root for the Cubs to lose, but I can't help but notice the upside. So if Jose Macias and the Cubs greet the dreadful Reds pitching staff with swinging strikeouts and weak groundouts tonight, don't feel like chewing on gristle. Don't grumble- give a whistle! Every pathetic loss is one step closer to a new boss. Always look on the bright side of life! : | Friday, August 05, 2005
It hasn't stoppedContrary to my colleague's assertion/hope/plea in the title of yesterday's post, the Cubs lost again yesterday, missing an opportunity to pick up a game on the division-leading Cards and wildcard-leading Astros and plunging the Playoff-o-meter to its lowest point of the season at 5%. This time the main culprit was the once reliable Mark Prior, who gave up three homers to push his season total to a career-high 17 homers allowed. There were other villains of course, but I doubt anyone is eager to hear about them.Today's cause for faint hope is focused on the return of Messrs Wood and Garciaparra, and Scott Williamson's first appearance on the major league roster. Of course, on the downside, Jerry Hairston is seriously injured, Garciaparra has a .404 pre-injury OPS and a 3-13 West Tennessee rehab stint to show for 2005, Wood isn't deemed healthy enough to even attempt to start, even Derrek Lee is coming back to earth a bit, and even if this team somehow beyond all reason managed to mount a historic comeback and get back in the race, Dusty would just throw Zambrano 224 pitches to blow it in the end anyway. I am truly sorry for the negativity. In all honesty, I do believe there remains an outside chance for this years Cubs. Baseball's a funny game, and sometimes when you least expect it miracles do occur. I think right about now its accurate to say I couldn't expect a comeback much less, so why not? Today we get our dynamic young lefty Rich Hill against the Mets' crafty elder lefty Tom Glavine. May fortune favor the young. : | Tuesday, August 02, 2005
Sunday, July 31, 2005
Too little, too lateOn a day when the Diamondbacks tagged Greg Maddux for six runs and the bullpen for seven more, we at least did finally get a little help for the offense. Hendry traded Gerut straight up for Matt Lawton, practically forcing Dusty to add a guy with a decent OBP to his next lineup card.Don't get me wrong- Lawton's a very useful guy to have around. I think he's an excellent pickup and well worth trading Gerut (and Dubois if you want to go back that far.) He's 33 and a career .370 OBP guy (.380 this year.) He's even got some speed- 49 steals in 70 attempts over the last three years, albeit only 16/25 this year. The trouble is there is a long way to go. We remain four games out in a race where there are a whopping eight teams either ahead or within two games of us. Its going to take a hefty winning percentage to come from four back to fight off all those opponents. Its a closed system, and its extremely likely that one or more of those teams has to get hot, meaning we'll have to be even hotter to pull it out. The one thing I wonder is whether Hendry couldn't have pulled this off back when the Dubois/Gerut deal was originally made? Or even earlier? Its not like the Pirates really needed to keep Lawton around as part of their pennant chase or anything. The impact of a move made on deadline day is inherently limited compared to the impact of the same deal made with more games left to play. I don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth, for this does look like another looting of the Pirate roster (albeit on a smaller scale), but if we come up one game short I'll certainly wonder whether two more weeks of Matt Lawton getting on-base might have made the difference. Four back. Its not impossible, and adding Lawton makes it that much less impossible, but it remains an awfully steep hill to climb. Lets go Cubs. : | Monday, July 25, 2005
Felix FelicisMy alarm goes off for work at five in the morning. I therefore haven't seen the end of many night games on school nights this year. Last night was a case in point- I sat down to catch the first couple innings on TV. As it turned out, the first inning was plenty to satisfy any urge I had to watch baseball. I did listen to another couple innings on the radio as I was getting ready for bed, so I went to sleep with the Cubs down 3-2. I woke up (closer to 5:30 than to 5) and headed out to the computer to check the score.I knew something was up when there were not one, not two, but three incoming IMs waiting for me from the night before, but never in my wildest dreams would I have imagined that the trigger was an extra-inning grand-slam from Neifi Perez. I'm listening to the audio archive of the tenth inning over the internet as I blog and dress for work now. Yarbage told me yesterday afternoon that last night was the key game of the season, so if he's right there are good times a comin'. Sit back and enjoy. Neifi! : | Friday, July 22, 2005
CBA Prediction Contest UpdateJoltin' Joe from VFTB asked for an update, so here it is. Kurt Evans and Jeff Biddle are our leaders in the blogger and reader categories respectively. Jason Steffens and Christian Ruzich, the vanguards of the early CBA are both in the top five, and yours truly squeezes in between them. I'm not sure what I'll do if I end up winning my own prizes. Today's fun fact: of sixty-five entrants, precisely ZERO chose Derrek Lee as their Cub to make the All-Star game. That's two less than chose Corey Patterson.Anyway, take a minute to silently thank contest sponsor Wrigleyville Sports, especially if you are in contention. After all, you could use your Wrigleyville Sports gift cards to purchase this week's featured product on their website, the Cubs bikini. No further comment necessary.
: | Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Wrigley ReportJeez, I manage to go somewhere and see the Cubs play and Dennis has to go steal my thunder. He always turns up when you least expect him!Anyway, I'll try to make my recap of Sunday's game relatively brief since its 48+ hours old by now. Pittsburgh Rob, an occasional commenter on this very site, emailed a few weeks back saying Southwest had a sale from Pittsburgh to Chicago and he wanted to visit Wrigley Field for the first time. I certainly couldn't turn that down, so we rounded up the third of our three high school amigos and headed for Chicago.
The only real drawback to the game was the intensity of the heat during the two third of the game when the sun was not blocked by cloudcover. Sweat just poured out of myself and everyone I could see with the exception of one bizarrely sweatproof lass a couple rows in front of me. I wonder how she does it. Anyway, the Pirates got a couple garbage-time runs before Sergio closed it out to run my lifetime record at Wrigley to 5-1. After the game we went back to Navy Pier, rode the ferris wheel, took a really cool architecture cruise on the Chicago River, went up to the top of the Sears Tower, and closed things out with dinner in Greektown. All in all, an excellent trip. So, to recap:
: | Dubois for GerutThe Cubs and Indians swapped fringe outfielders yesterday, With Jody Gerut arriving to give the Cubs a slightly different look in the outfield. Its a challenge trade, so I'll compare and contrast what I think of what the two guys bring to the table.Age- Dubois is a year and a half younger and has about a year and a half more major league experience. Slight edge to Dubois. On-basednessBoth guys hit for nearly identical averages in the minors, although Dubois tended to be a bit old for the leagues he was playing in. Dubois was pretty good at drawing walks (.090 isolated OBP in AA and AAA) while Gerut was a bit better (.102). In the majors, Gerut has lost some of that patience (.073) while Dubois has lost more (.048). A hitter becoming a hacker under Cubs tutelage? Shocking. Slugosity- Dubois has always had some pop, but never to the degree that you would expect big major league home run totals out of him. His major league performance has been what you would expect from his minor league numbers. Gerut showed middling power through the minors, but raised hopes with a .215 ISO in a bit of a breakout rookie year. Performances in the subsequent years have been a return to form (.153 ISO last year and .102 this year.) He'll probably be good for better than the 1 HR in 138 AB he's had this year, but don't expect a return to 2003. Platoonedness- Gerut has been much better against righties, particularly this year when he has gone 1-23 with no XBH against southpaws. Considering the sample size I'd expect his splits to trend back toward the mean, but considering his skillset and the presence of Hollandsworth, maintaining the split wouldn't be so bad since he'll be in mostly a platoon role. Defense- This is the biggest advantage for Gerut. Hendry was quoted as saying he's above average in both corners and average in center. The range factors back him up (although the sample size for center field is fairly small.) I think Dubois could've been better in the field with more regular playing time, but its fair to say he was never going to be as good with the glove as Gerut. Overall- This trade is unlikely to change the face of baseball history, but its hard to see any downside to it. Gerut is a useful third/fourth outfielder who won't hurt us in the field. I'd rather see him taking PA in left than taking them away from Hairston in center, but either way he should be adequate. Along with the recent callups, its tempting call the increase in players with on-base skills a trend. I don't want to count my chickens too early, but these could be the first steps toward a Cubs offense with runs scored totals commensurate with their slugging prowess. I'll be back tonight with a recap of what was probably the hottest afternoon I ever spent at a ballpark Sunday at Wrigley. : | Wednesday, July 13, 2005
Copa del Mundo de BéisbolI like the idea of a Baseball World Cup. I don't care for the idea of it being a side business for Emperor Bud. But with Alex Rodriguez having completed his heel turn by announcing plans to abandon his birth country and wrap himself in the Dominican flag, I'm warming up to it again.Don't get me wrong- I don't really care what country A-Rod chooses to compete for, and I generally think its cool when people show their respect for their homelands. Heck, I've got a Danish flag in my living room and its been over a hundred years since one of my direct ancestors lived in Denmark. Nonetheless, when you A) join the Yankees, B) try to slap Bronson Arroyo with your purse, and then C) turn your back on the red, white, and blue, then yeah, that's enough reason for me to enjoy rooting against you. Of course, his tendency to chill the fortunes of every team he joins may be the only thing that keeps the US competitve when we face the Dominican Republic, so here's to you A-Rod! : | Tuesday, July 12, 2005
TCR RoundtableThe good folks at TCR included me in their All-Star Break roundtable so go check out what I and others had to say.: | Sunday, July 10, 2005
Storm PartyThe Cubs dodged a hurricane and blew away the Marlins, sweeping all three games this weekend by a combined score of 26-10. There were some things to like about this series. Obviously, the not losing was a welcome change. Wood and Maddux both looked very strong. The spark the offense showed was long overdue, and given that it coincided with the arrival of some of the youngsters it was even more heartening.Still, the Cubs remain 12 back of St. Louis in the division and 6.5 back of the Braves for the wildcard. Worse, there are five other teams we'd have to jump over to claim that fourth NL playoff spot. Now is not the time to get our hopes up. Let's just relax, enjoy a Jeter-free All-Star break, get the kids some more playing time to open the second half and see where things go from here. : | Thursday, July 07, 2005
Braves sweepAnd that should just about do it. Mark Prior gets lit up while the Braves 5+ ERA starter three-hits the Cubs in the afternoon. Roberto Novoa throws fastballs to the leading home run hitter in the majors (who happens to have a well-known preference for fastballs) until he hits one out to ice the nightcap. The Cubs fall four games under, eight out of the wildcard and fourteen behind the Cardinals.I said I'd have pictures and stories, but there's nothing I am really dying to show and tell. I understand Patterson and Dubois have been sent down and Murton and Adam Greenberg have been called up. What this will do about Dusty hitting Neifi Perez and Jose Macias at the top of the order I do not know. Today was a lousy day. Here's hoping tomorrow is better. : | WakeI went to my first wake a couple months ago, and I feel like I may be going to my second tonight. If the Cubs get swept in a double-header today... well, anything would still be possible but its hard to imagine the team recovering to make the playoffs. The rain is swapping the pitching matchups, giving the Cubs a decided edge in the afternoon game (now Prior vs Horacio Ramirez ) but a tougher row to hoe in the nightcap (Jerome Williams vs Smoltz).Here's to the victim kicking open the casket, rising up, and sweeping the Braves today. I'll post pictures and thoughts when I get home tonight. : | Wednesday, July 06, 2005
DarkThings look grim. I'm having severe difficulty trying to find the words to express my frustration. Dusty. Neifi. Corey. Maddux. Now Lee hurt. I just don't know what to say.The Cubs are staring at an eight-game losing streak if they don't either beat Smoltz tonight or win in front of me Thursday night. I was regretting that I was unable to attend the first three games in the series here in Atlanta. Now... sigh. : | Monday, July 04, 2005
Happy Fourth of July!I hope you are enjoying arguably the best holiday of the year (I'll accept petitions on behalf of Thanksgiving) as much as I am. I spent the morning waving a giant US flag and hollering at everyone who went by while running the world's largest 10k here in Atlanta this morning. I came home to catch some coverage of NASA hitting a comet (here's to cheap, safe, effective unmanned space exploration) like Derrek Lee teeing off on a hanging curve on the outer half. This afternoon its a cozy cookout at my place and then off to hopefully find a Cubs ticket at Turner Field tonight. If we can just please get a win it may well be a perfect day. : | Sunday, July 03, 2005
ConsistencyIts funny how fast things change. This team has run hot and cold, and so just when I start to feel good and post something optimistic Dusty drives the Cubsmobile into a tree and we're headed toward the second division (archaic term, I know) again. A month ago, it seemed like all our pitchers were hurt and yet the team went on a tear. Now the pitchers have returned (and seemingly looking like their old selves) and its losing streak time. The pitching matchup seems awfully favorable (Zam vs Drese), and I have extra personal motiviation because I am going to have less fun at Turner Field this week if I am watching the Cubs continue to spiral downward.And speaking of consistency, Lance Armstrong crushed his main rivals in the first time trial of the Tour de France yesterday. I wonder if he's ever considered a second career as an outfielder. : | Thursday, June 30, 2005
Bon Voyage and Welcome BackIts been a little hectic the last week or so, but I couldn't let the DFA of Joe Borowski and the return of Kerry Wood pass without comment. In many ways, they are mirror images of each other. Borowski the reliever; Wood the starter. Borowski the 32nd round pick who bounced from Baltimore to Atlanta to the Bronx to the Mexican League to the Northern League before briefly seeming at home in the Friendly Confines; Wood the fourth overall pick who shot through the system before exploding on the scene in 1998. Borowski who went from obscurity to two years of excellence and apparently right back to obscurity; Wood who remains one of the games bigger stars despite not yet turning in the Cy Young campaign he seems made for.Each has had performances that will live forever in the memories of Cub fans. I'll always remember leaving class, walking into the campus newspaper office, and checking my email to find it full of messages telling people to turn on WGN. I did so in time to catch the final inning and a half of the fabled 20K game. I still don't know if I am supposed to curse Kevin Orie for costing Kerry the no-hitter or thank him for allowing the twenty strikeouts. Likewise, I'll never forget who blew away Jim Edmonds to end the best Cubs game I've ever seen. Perhaps both men reached their apex right here in Atlanta, GA in October of that year. Wood, coming off two months of dominating pitching in which he willed the Cubs to the playoffs with a sub-2 ERA, delivered a two-hit, eleven strikeout performance over 7.1 to win Game 1 and came back with a five-hit, seven whiff outing to win Game Five and the series from the favored Braves. In each game, it was Joe Bo who took the mound in the ninth, striking out five of the seven Braves he faced to twice nail down the saves. And now, Joe moves on while Kerry comes back. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Borowski catch on somewhere. He had an 11/1 K/BB ratio this year and his only problem was giving up the long ball. Before the injury he had two solid years of dominance from the pen. He's 34- not young but not quite dead yet either. Let's hope its with a team we never have to run into. Meanwhile, Wood blew back into town with six sterling innings yesterday. I can't claim to be optimistic about his chances of dominating the second half of this season. He's been worked hard by everyone from his high school coach to Baylor to Baker. The injuries have cropped up over and over again, but when he's healthy he's been good and at times brilliant. If he's healthy and if he can dominate and if Prior and Zambrano stay strong and if Corey comes back to life and if Lee isn't saving his April for September this year and if Cedeno or Nomar can come back and save us from Dusty's Neifi-love... ...we might just have a shot at this thing yet. : | Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Happy Birthday, Mark Grace!It's June 28th, the day the nation pauses to appreciate the career of the greatest baseball player, World Series hero, and class acts the game has ever known. He turns 41 today, and while we can't all go to the lengths the great Brad Wackerlin has to pay tribute, I'm happy to at least take a moment to say thanks.: | Tuesday, June 21, 2005
Jerome Williams makes Cub debut tonightMaddux, Lee, Ramirez, and some timely defense helped stop the bleeding last night. Tonight it's Jerome Williams who gets a chance to don a Chicago Cubs uniform and help the cause. Let's take the opportunity to update the chart I posted when the trade was made a few weeks back:
Hallelujah! Jerome Williams figured it all out in Iowa and he's now ready to resume where he left off before last year's injury problems! Or, maybe not. The numbers above are misleading for a couple reasons. First, the gaudy ERA doesn't include a disproportionate number of unearned runs. Count them and you've got an ERA of 2.22 that jumps to an RA of 3.70. Second, the walk rate looks better, but throw in the two batters he hit and it jumps to a less flattering 7.2%. Third, his control looks worse still when you consider the whopping five wild pitches he threw in just four Iowa starts. Its a small sample size, but that's a phenomenal rate. Only two pitchers in the majors have higher rates, John Parrish and Byung-Hyun Kim. I'm not saying Williams shouldn't be given the start. He has a promising track record, he's available, and we don't have a lot of other options right this minute. I'd just reccomend tempering your expectations a smidge before buying your J. Williams Cubs jersey. : | Monday, June 20, 2005
Swing batter swing!I got an email yesterday from Friend of the Lounge Trent McBride asking about Corey's first pitch tendencies. He wrote:(McCarver and Buck) cited the stat that (Patterson) has a big lead in across baseball- percent of AB swinging at Sadly, the best data I have is from ESPN.com's splits, and while they give first pitch in play, after 1-0, and after 0-1, they don't break 0-1 down into called strikes and swinging strikes/fouls. Still, we can take a look and see what we find.
Corey's performance from 0-1 is up a bit from previous years while his performance from 1-0 is down a bit. When putting that first pitch in play though, a problem emerges. Patterson's OPS drops from .907 to a lowly .653, explaining pretty much his entire downturn this season. Its hard to say why this might be happening, but there may be a clue to the change in Patterson's approach if we look at the breakdown of PAs of each type. Note how the FPIP rate has actually plummeted this year, from 39% to 18%, even as the 1-0 rate has jumped by roughly the same amount. Up until this year, Patterson's success was largely built on strong success when putting the first pitch in play. This year he has, either by choice or by inability to make contact, not been putting the first pitch in play and not hitting it with authority when he does put it in play. Could it be that Corey would be better off hacking more than he has been this year? I hate to say it, but it just may be true. : | Duncan vs HorryI'm a Hawks fan, but the Spurs have been my backup team for about fifteen years now so I enjoyed seeing their exciting overtime win in Detroit last night. As I'm sure you heard if you watched Sportscenter or opened a newspaper sports section today, the man getting most of the credit for the victory is Robert Horry. Horry, who in the regular season played the seventh most minutes per game of any Spur and was less than two MPG ahead of four other Spurs, scored 21 of San Antonio's final 35 points including several fourth quarter threes and an incredible jam over Rip Hamilton that led up to the game-winner. Everywhere you look this morning, the pundits are lining up to sing the praises of Big Shot Bob, basketball hero.On the flipside, there is Tim Duncan. San Antonio's star player is taking his lumps this morning after going 1-7 from the free throw line in the fourth quarter and missing an uncontested tip-in at the buzzer that could have won it in regulation. The local paper says Horry bailed Duncan out. ESPN's Daily Dime went so far as to name Duncan Sunday's worst. What is strange to me is that I don't see how an objective observer could conclude that Robert Horry had a better game than Tim Duncan last night. Granted, Duncan missed some key free throws, but he also scored 26 points, grabbed nineteen rebounds, and blocked a couple shots while committing just two turnovers and three personal fouls. Even in that subpar fourth quarter he grabbed huge rebounds and played excellent defense posession after posession. By contrast, Horry disappeared for just about three full quarters. ESPN's John Hollinger put it like this: "In the first half, Horry looked completely overmatched. He played 15 minutes without scoring, missed all three shots and looked terrified every time he went to the basket. The other Spurs had played extremely well, but the game was tied at halftime largely because Horry was keeping Detroit in the game." You might counter that Horry deserves credit for elevating his game in the clutch. He may not be as gifted a player as Duncan, but with the game on the line he found a higher gear while Duncan lost his. There's some truth to this- for instance, there's no excuse for consistently poor free throw shooting and Duncan should certainly be held accountable for not improving that aspect of his game. But I think there is even more truth to the flipside of that arguement, namely that if Horry is capable of playing at the elevated level he often shows in the clutch, why on earth doesn't he do it the rest of the time? Points scored and allowed count just as much early as they do late and if Horry had played like an all-star for the first three quarters the Spurs would've won by twenty points. Tim Duncan, as gracious an athlete as you will ever hear, half-jokingly made the same point after the game. I'll patch together quotes from two different game stories, neither of which exactly matches what I heard Duncan say on TV but both of which get the general point across: “He does it all season long. He doesn’t feel like playing. He doesn’t want to show up. Until you get to a big game — being Robert Horry must be nice. I’ll tell you what the deal with Rob is. Rob just hangs out, he doesn’t feel like playing until it's a big game, and doesn’t show up until the fourth quarter, when he decides to turn on the switch.” I don't write this to bury Horry or absolve Duncan. Each player showed strengths and weaknesses last night and I'm mostly just glad their performances complimented each other enough that the Spurs managed to get the win. Still, one guy played 48 minutes at an MVP level but missed six free throws and a tip in (that he only had the opportunity to attempt thanks to his offensive rebound) while the other guy played twenty minutes at an MVP level and twenty where he looked like the basketball version of the Cubs bullpen. "Big Shot Bob Saves Chokin' Duncan" isn't how I'd sum that night up. : | Sunday, June 19, 2005
Happy times are... where, exactly?In the last week the Cubs have lost six out of seven, including a three-game sweep in the Bronx that let down an entire world full of Yankee haters. They were outscored by 7, 8, 10, 3, 7, and 3 in the six losses en route to giving back nearly all the ground gained in the 12-3 stretch that preceeded this downturn. Every single starting pitcher on the big league roster is now either injured or coming off an outing in which he was shelled. When I update the Playoff-o-meter tomorrow morning it will be in the twenties. Also, I totalled my car.Still, there are seeds of hope that may yet germinate into beatiful flowers of rejoicing. Jerome Williams made four succesful starts for Iowa and will be handed the ball against Milwaukee on Tuesday. Mark Prior is maybe possibly supposedly just about ready to return. Freddy and his pals on the US Youth World Championship squad won their group over Egypt, Germany, and Argentina without conceding a goal, and are on to a sweet sixteen matchup with Italy Tuesday morning live on Fox Soccer Channel. I've got tickets to the third early screening of Serenity, Joss Whedon's new movie that won't be in wide release until September 30. And hey, at least when we got swept by the Yankees it wasn't the most monumental choke in baseball history. What I am trying to say is "always look on the bright side of life." Come on now, whistle it with me. You'll feel better in no time. : | Wednesday, June 15, 2005
DownhillThe Cubs' afternoon was surely heading down a slippery slope from the moment I compared today's starting pitcher to my car in the comments.Thanks for the two comments, two phone calls, the IM, and the three e-mails. Yes, I am 100% fine. I turned onto the on-ramp for the interstate, only it wasn't the on-ramp for the interstate, and the next thing you know I am hanging from my seatbelt upside down in a ditch. The car is a complete loss, no collision so I'm buying a new one out of pocket. I wisely made a series of big purchases lately, so I suppose I'm going on a budget again. Fortunately Blogger is free and net access is a necessity, so I'll still be posting away. Just a bit less travel and cut back on the DVDs. Here's hoping the team lands right side up after today and keeps driving towards October. Let's go Cubs. : | Tuesday, June 14, 2005
THE GOOD
THE BADI flipped my car upside down, totalling it. THE UGLYSeriously, did I mention the car?: | Monday, June 13, 2005
Ask and ye shall receiveMOE commented on the Dempster post and said "Is it me or did Dempster look better with Blanco calling the pitches? More groundouts it seems."Aw heck, lets find out. I went through the game logs and found that Dempster has pitched to Blanco six times, April 21 and 27, May 11 and 18, and June 5 and 11. Fortunately, he never pitched to Barrett and Blanco on the same day because that would have confused the heck out of my spreadsheet. Anyway, here's what I found:
There you have it: it's just MOE. Seriously though, these numbers probably don't mean a whole lot. We're dealing with a sample size of just 216 plate appearances (77 throwing to Blanco, 139 throwing to Barrett.) That's a pretty small number, particularly if we are looking for what is probably a fairly subtle effect of the catcher on the pitcher. This is evidenced by the fact that our numbers are heavily skewed by each appearance. For example, throw out Dempster's April 21 start against the Reds (5.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 GB, 2 FB) and the ERA advantage flip flops from Barrett to Blanco. Throw out his April 21 start against Pittsburgh (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 GB, 9 FB) and its the G/F ratio that flip flops. So in summary, we can definitely say that Dempster is not getting more ground balls when pitching to Blanco, but there's not enough data to say that one catcher or the other is having any significant affect on Dempster's performance. : | Sunday, June 12, 2005
Cubs rollApparently, I hate the Yankees more than the Cardinals. That's what I learned about myself when my gut reaction to the score updates on Yanks/Cards during yesterday's Cubs game was to root for the Cardinals to get back in it. After thinking about it for a second, reason prevailed and I began rooting for the Cardinals to lose and thus improve the Cubs playoff standing, but for a moment there when emotion reigned I was practically a Cardinals fan. Yikes.More importantly, the Cubs held on for a 7-6 win over the Red Sox. Ryan Dempster used up every bit of the insurance the Cubs had gotten him in the eighth, allowing three hits and two runs and bringing the go-ahead run to the plate before coaxing a popup out of Trot Nixon to end it. The shaky performance prompted me to pull Dempster's numbers, and this is what I saw (rates as percentages of total batters faced):
At first glance, this doesn't look encouraging. Its nice that Dempster is eight for nine in save chances since becoming closer, but with K and HR rates only a bit better than league average and a below-average walk rate, I was ready to start building an ark in preparation for a flood of blown saves. Fortunately, before running to Home Depot I had the bright idea to break out his numbers as a starter and as a releiver:
Return your oversized orange lumber carts to their storage locations in the front of the store. Since moving to the pen, Dempster's walk rate has fallen to less than a third of what it was as a starter. It would be nice to maintain the fairly strong K-rate he showed as a starter, but even if not these are still the numbers of a fairly succesful pitcher. I'd like to see him continue to be handed the multi-run cushions we never seemed to be able to provide to LaTroy, but whatever the situation we should feel reasonably comfortable bringing Dempster in to it. This is the first morning all year the Playoff-o-meter has had us over 50% likely to make the playoffs. Let's hope Wakefield's knuckler is nice and straight and we can continue to push it higher. : | Saturday, June 11, 2005
Cub spawn leads US over Argentina 1-0
It was quite the performance for the US. Argentina has won three of the last five World Youth Championships, and were heavy favorites with the oddsmakers coming into today's game. The oddsmakers apparently haven't seen the US play though, because I don't think this strong and at times dominating performance came as a surprise to most stateside observers. Our U-20s have as much skill, pace, and strength as anyone in the world, and they showed it in unmistakable fashion today. Freddy Adu, the youngest man on the field even here at a youth tournament, wowed the crowd with two jaw-dropping Maravich/Pele type moves and looked the most skilled player on either team throughout. Barrett had a number of searing runs in addition to finding the space to hammer home the only goal. Wynne looked like a man jumping against boys winning every header that came his way. The work is not yet done for the US. Germany awaits on Tuesday, and just to make it interesting the game is being played in Holland just twenty minutes across the border from Deutschland. A win would clinch a spot in the next round. A tie or loss and it would come down to a match with Egypt on Saturday. Who'd have thought that by 2006 we'd be at a point where we could end up in a soccer group of death and quite possibly be the best damn team in said group? The times they are a changin'. : | Chicks dig the long ballAnd so do I, when its being hit by Greg Maddux, Todd Hollandsworth, and Jeromy Burnitz (twice.) With that kind of offensive support, Maddux might stick around for 400. Anyway, we've got favorable pitching matchups today and tomorrow as Zambrano faces Wade Miller today and Rusch takes on Tim Wakefield Sunday. Come to think of it, Maddux's bat speed might match Wakefield's pitch speed perfectly. Maybe Greg should play left Sunday.: | Thursday, June 09, 2005
Wednesday, June 08, 2005
Surge for Sergio%20-%20SURGE%20softdrink%20soda%2012%20cans%20unopened%20-%20Coke_files/i-1.jpg) I've got a soft spot for Sergio after watching his major league debut with his wildly enthusiastic extended family sitting a couple rows behind me at Turner Field a couple years ago. That spot got a little softer today as he owned the Blue Jays, throwing seven scoreless and striking out six while allowing just a walk and two singles. Oh, and he drove in the game-winning run with a double off Toronto ace Roy Halladay. I am therefore awarding a twelve-pack of one of my very favorite Coke products, the sadly underappreciated Surge. Here's to you, Sergio!We're off tomorrow before Greg Maddux faces Bronson Arroyo and the Boston Red Sox Friday afternoon at Wrigley. I don't need to tell you the press angle on this one because we're probably all going to be sick of it about... oh... actually, I'm already sick of it. Let's just move on. Last, a quick plug- check out VFTB's press junket to catch the D-Jaxx this weekend. Joe got to pose questions to Felix Pie, Matt Murton, and Brandon Sing, among others. After years of cruising through softball questions from the MSM, these guys finally came face to face with a grueling interrogation from the CBA, and you can hear it all on glorious mp3 format. Enjoy. : | Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Cubs draftThe Cubs have taken Mark Pawelek with the twentieth overall pick in today's first round of the draft. I know I had seen at least two mock drafts that had the Cubs taking him, so its not a surprise pick by any means. I've collected a few articles on him which I will link below. Several sources listed him as the top high school southpaw in the draft, but drafting high-school pitchers is a historically risky proposition. He was Baseball America's #17 prospect coming into the draft and they said he was quite possibly "the best Utah pitching product since Bruce Hurst." Hmm. He's also a Boras client and has signed with Arizona State.As a high school pick, even a relatively polished one, Pawelek has a longer development path ahead of him which means more time for an injury or other derailment to occur. The good news is we live in a post-Moneyball era, where teams tend to shy away from high-school pitchers. A few years ago we might have been taking the fourth or fifth best high school lefty with the twentieth overall pick. Its far too early to make a predicition on Pawelek's career (I painfully remember how psyched I was about Luis Montanez, and Ty Griffin for that matter) so I am going to try to relax and wait and see. Check out Rob G.'s great draft series over at TCR for more on the Cubs' draft.
Edited to add:Several stories mentioned he was eager to sign and get to work on his goal of making the majors by age 20. Towards that end, he has already signed. Somebody should tell that Boras guy he needs to play hard to get occasionally. : | Sunday, June 05, 2005
All-Stars and routsYesterday was a good sports day. The US whomped on the Ticos 3-0 last night in Utah. Kasey Keller proved he can still play out of his mind, and Lanny-cakes had a gorgeous goal, a hustle goal, and a gorgeous hustle play to nearly single-handedly create Brian McBride's goal. The US soccer community has been just hammering our golden boy Landon Donovan ever since he bailed out of his German pro team to come home to MLS and his girlfriend Bianca, mom, and sister (in no particular order.) Mama's boy, wuss, pansy, coward... the insults have been coming fast and furious. He doesn't help matters with a goal celebration that's been described as catching the Golden Snitch, a move that I fear is actually "pretending to catch an imaginary kiss blown from Bianca then putting it an imaginary pocket." I mean I'm no macho grunt grunt fella, but come on! Be a man! Show me a Y chromosome!But the more I think about it, the less I care. The fact of the matter is, Landon Donovan owned the World Cup in 2002 with nothing more than MLS experience. He is usually one of the best couple players on the field for the national team, and not infrequently has games like last night where is the hands down Man of the Match (sorry Kasey). If he can keep playing at that level, I don't care if he goes home to Bianca and they braid each others hair all night. If that's what he needs to be happy, more power to him. I reserve the right to roll my eyes at the goal celebrations revolving around being whipped though. Mid-summer classicThe first set of All-Star voting results came out this week, and they were a hot topic across the CBA. It seems Nomar is leading at short while Derrek Lee has about half the votes of one Grandpa Al Pujols. This brought on much consternation on the part of the CBA. How can Nomar be leading when he has played just fifteen games and put up a .405 OPS? How can Lee not be leading when he's outhitting Pujols, A-Rod, Bonds, Ruth, Teddy Ballgame, Josh Gibson, and anyone else you can think of?Well I have an answer. I don't think All-Star rosters should be selected on the basis of a handful of games in April and May. To me, the All-Star first baseman in the National League should be whichever NL first baseman is the best baseball player. Looking at all available information, from their career records to their performance in the last year or two to their performance the first two months of this season, I think that man is the one that plays for the (gulp) Cardinals. Would I enjoy seeing Derrek Lee start at first? Certainly. Has every ballot I've cast had his (real or virtual) chad punched? Indeed. But I think at this point in time, Albert Pujols deserves the start. If Lee goes another twelve months at this pace and Pujols hits .950 OPS over that time my answer will change, but for now its got to be Pujols. Shortstop is trickier. Its been a couple years since Garciaparra was playing consistently at a Hall of Fame level (as opposed to Pujols who has continuously been there since his debut in 2001). He hasn't played much this year, and when he has played he's been awful. That said, the competition is no great shakes either. Barmes? Itzuris? Eckstein? The Holy Trinity this is not. Remarkably, Neifi remains a legitimate candidate for "NL shortstop having the best 2005", but his track record coming in to this year was probably the worst of any of them. Given the variables, I think Neifi is the best choice (and so does Nomar) but I don't have a huge problem with someone voting for any of the guys listed above, including Mr. Hamm. And now we've tied it back to soccer and whipped boyfriends/husbands. Its the circle of life, I tell you. : | Thursday, June 02, 2005
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
Damaged GoodsThe Cubs swapped LaTroy Hawkins for David Aardsma and Jerome Williams on Saturday. I've written extensively about Hawkins before. He was an excellent reliever last year who happened to have some hits drop between fielders at inopportune times. His peripherals slipped some this year, particularly in the last couple weeks (i.e. after the abuse from the fans really ratcheted up, not that I can show their behavior was responsible.) He leaves with a 2.76 ERA as a Cub (3.32 this year.)Even if I'm right and short-sighted management and fans did push Hawkins out the door early, all is not necessarily lost. Jim Hendry managed to pick up two young arms while getting Hawkins' salary off the books. Let's take a look at their numbers and try to see if we might have gotten a nice baby or two in return for the one that went out with the bathwater.
Aardsma was a college closer. Historically top major league releivers have generally come from a background of starting, but in recent years there have been more examples of releivers developing as relievers and still finding success. Aardsma's control left him last year, as he posted abnormally high BB rates both with the Giants and in AAA. He seems to have reigned that in while working in the rotation in AA this year, but reports are that his mechanics and velocity have taken a turn for the worse.
Jerome Williams was a first round pick and pitched well at every level of the minor leagues. He had a strong rookie year at age 21, but after a solid first two months of his sophmore season things took a turn for the worse. All his peripherals went south in June leading up to an elbow scope in July. He returned to make one good start in a key pennant-race game in September, and kicked things off this year with a strong start against the Padres. Felipe Alou used an off day to skip Williams' next start, used him in one shaky relief outing, and returned him to the rotation where he was shelled in two starts. The Giants elected to send him down, a move he wasn't happy with. After a few poor outings, Williams picked things up showing improved mechanics and velocity before the trade. So we have three pitchers. Each has shown good reason to think they can be above average major league pitchers. Each has also shown reason at least to some to think they may be ready to flame out and disappear. I think Hawkins is the most likely of the three to be a major league contributor, but he comes with a larger price tag and as a reliever his upside is limited compared to Williams'. On paper I think this deal is at least a draw, with the Cubs receiving more talent and winning the deal if Williams proves to be healthy. Considering the corner Hendry was backed into concerning Hawkins status with management and the fans, I am surprised he was able to get this much in return. Its a shame the fans forced Hawkins out the door, but if he had to go its nice to get this much in return. Considering the Sosa deal, getting value for players the fans have buried seems to be a skill of Hendry's. With the way the Mariotti's and sports talk callers like to bury Cubs players, its a skill that Cubs GMs seem to need. And now I am going to concentrate on listening to Ronnie drool over former Who's the Boss star "Alyssa Romano". Good times. : | Monday, May 30, 2005
Chicago RoundupLike a latter-day Ferris Bueller, I ditched work and took my native-Chicagoan father to Wrigley and points beyond this weekend. Here are the highlights, sans subjects to save you time and because the predicate-only approach gives that you-are-there grittiness. You know you love it.Thursday Awoke at 4:30 a.m. to catch the first AirTran flight of the day to Chicago. Landed, picked up the rental car, and motored over to River Forest where we visited the apartment Dad lived in from birth to age 14, had an ice cream cone at his old neighborhood hangout, saw Ernest Hemingway's birth home and about a dozen Frank Lloyd Wright houses, walked through his old elementary school and junior high, and finally had lunch at Russell's BBQ. (I see the absurdity in leaving Georgia and heading to Illinois to have barbeque, but this was a trip for Dad so I didn't say anything.)
Friday Woke at 6:30 and drove to New Trier High School. I've spent my whole life trying to supress the urge to vomit each of the countless times I've heard Dad brag about his wonderful high school, but its his trip so I had set up a tour with their alumni office. (Yes, the high school has an alumni office with a full-time staff.) Saw the famous meeting clock, the home room where Dad through paper airplanes out the window at the girls' home room across the courtyard, and the room where the AP newswire teletype told Dad's class Kennedy had been shot. Left the car at the north end of the El (Linden Station) and took the train down to Wrigley.
Saturday Woke at 7, packed, and drove out to Wilmette to meet my dad's mother for the first time. It was a bit strange, but she was friendly and bought us a very tasty breakfast which always helps break the ice. (I had some sort of apple pancake topped with ice cream. I like just about anyone who buys me something topped with ice cream.) Saw her neighborhood and house, bid our adieus, and headed back in town.
If you allow for the fact that the three games I saw were a loss, the breaking of Mark Prior's arm, and another loss, it was one fantastic trip. My career undefeated record at Wrigley Field has now dropped to 5-1, but as one of Al's pals pointed out that's still better than any of their records. It irked me losing to those patronizing English snobs, but I am convinced we can beat them, and next time we play them in a game that matters I think we will. Its funny- we lost in Mexico, to a country with far more reason to want to beat the US and with far more soccer pride having been lost at our hands in recent memory, and everyone I talked to afterwards was cordial and (within reason) elected not to rub it in. Lose a friendly (exhibition) to England and you're hearing about it in the most condescending manner imaginable from every one of their portly middle-aged wannabe hooligans. Ah well, still a great trip. Back tomorrow with my thoughts on the recent hot streak and the LaTroy Hawkins trade. : | |
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Of course, Rob managed to lose his wallet in his refrigerator causing him to miss his flight, show up twelve hours late, and miss Saturday's game. Don't ask. We did manage to see Navy Pier and Rush Street Saturday, so that's something. Sunday we headed to Wrigley, got bleacher seats from a scalper, had lunch on Clark, and then headed in to seats reserved for us by 
