Cubs drop opener

Matt Clement struggled through four innings en route to his worst start of the year and a 12-8 loss. Its frustrating to have the pitching cave in right when the offense manages to put up some runs, but such is life. Noted liar and con artist Jeff Kent was the ringleader again with an RBI single, a two-run double, and a three-run homer for a six RBI day.

The matchup will favor the Cubs tomorrow night in a game the Cubs must win to avoid falling 2.5 games behind Houston. Jared Fernandez (1-2, 5.27) will try to sneak his knuckleball past Cubs hitters after failing to do so five days ago. He'll face our man Mark Prior (11-5, 2.65) who is coming off back-to-back complete games and a trip to the DL two weeks ago. We can't win without Mark, Kerry, and increasingly Carlos healthy, so here's hoping.

Can I have a steak and eat it too?

On a personal note, my office is having our quarterly appreciation luncheon tomorrow. As far as I am concerned, I would appreciate having someone pop in my cube every now and then, look at what I am doing, and tell me it looks good. That doesn't seem to be in the cards though, so I guess if they can't bring themselves to tell me they love me then they might as well do it with free food.

Anyway, our quarterly luncheons are usually held at the kind of generic, boring restaurants at which corporate functions are often held- places that are more expensive but not any better than your typical Fridays/Applebees/Chilis establishment. I've made my share of derisive remarks about these places, but I had to eat my words when I heard that this quarter we are going to one of my favorite restaurants- Ruth's Chris Steakhouse. In the place of my usual sarcasm, I've been talking up the really wonderful steaks we would be having to anyone who would listen.

Imagine my surprise then, when I found that we would be selecting our meals from the "Corporate Banquet" menu. Not only is it not any cheaper than the regular menu, but it is missing certain common entree options, namely STEAK. That's right, my company is shelling out for the whole office to go to Ruth's Chris STEAKHOUSE but we are not going to be able to order STEAK. I don't want to sound ungrateful- I mean a free meal is a free meal- but going to Ruth's Chris Steakhouse and not being able to get steak is like going to Arby's and finding they have no roast beef. Which happened to me once. But that's a story for another time...

posted by Scott at 11:27 PM : |

 

Are you kidding me?

Because if you are, I'm not laughing. Tony Womack, the man with the .608 OPS in Arizona and the .415 OPS for the Rockies, will make the Chicago Cubs his third team of the season after he was traded for a minor leaguer today. We get rid of patience/power machines like Hee Sop Choi, and we acquire sink holes like Tony Womack. If we win this division, it will be in spite of the best efforts of our front office.
posted by Scott at 11:52 AM : |

 

Missed opportunity as all NL Central contenders fall

The Cubs lost no ground yesterday but they did miss a chance to take first place back as they fell 3-0 to the Dodgers. The Cubs did manage to draw four walks against Nomo, but the big hit never came as nine were left on base. Dusty sent his message to Hee Sop Choi loud and clear, as Simon got the start (1-4, single, strikeout, error) and Karros got the call to pinch-hit against the right-handed Gagne in the ninth (strikeout). As I have said before, there are things I like about Dusty but his mishandling of Bellhorn and Choi borders on criminal.

We are off today before starting another critical series with Houston. The good news is the Cubs say Kerry will make his start and that Estes will be skipped for at least the one turn. Kerry mentions that his back forced him out of a game against Montreal a couple years ago. Looking over his history, I think that may be his April 9, 2001 start in which he went just three innings against the Expos. He bounced back with ten strikeouts six days later, so hopefully he can do something simillar this time. These three games at the erstwhile Enron Field are our last chance to do some damage to Houston head-to-head, so here's for taking at least two of three.

posted by Scott at 8:34 AM : |

 

Freddy strikes again

The local soccer bar wasn't open at 8 a.m. this morning when the US U-17's took on Sierra Leone, so I found myself sitting in front of my computer reading play-by-play descriptions from fans in an IM chat room and from the Matchtracker on the U.S. Soccer site. Its a shame I missed it, because Freddy Adu once again provided one of those magical moments that seem to just happen to certain people.

Early on Sierra Leone was dominating the match, at one point leading the US in shots 10-1. A half hour in the dam broke as one of their strikers beat a defender in the corner, dribbled down the goal line, and centered to a teammate for a 1-0 lead. The US picked it up in the following minutes, failing to get a penalty called when a trip of Adu went uncalled (that's foreshadowing). Just seconds later though, the Uzbeki ref had to blow the whistle when Eddie Gaven was hacked down by the goalie, and the penalty made it 1-1 at the half.

In the second half, the pace slowed down to a more manageable level as Sierra Leone was apparently tired of running through our midfield all game. The US began holding some posession and creating some chances, but when Sierra Leone responded by hacking US players down the referee began to look the other way. In the 63rd minute Freddy was forearmed to the ground in the box without a call. In the 73rd, Corey Ashe was hammered down and although the foul was called, Ashe was handed a yellow for dissent. In the 85th minute, Freddy got chopped down and had to be stretchered off. To the referee, that merited a yellow... to Adu! A brief interlude:

In 2003, a crack goal scorer was yellow carded by an Uzbeki ref for a crime he didn't commit. He promptly returned to the field to bury the game winner and break the hearts of his opponents and the crooked ref. Today, still wanted by FIFA, he survives as a soldier of fortune. If you have a problem, if no-one else can help, and if you can find him, maybe you can hire... the A-du.

Freddy came back on with a slight limp, and was immediately hammered to the ground in the penatly area without a call. A minute later Freddy was shoved to the ground as the ball arrived, this time miraculously drawing a whistle. And then, at the critical moment, this 14 year-old warrior broke through. Jamie Watson sent a header onto Adu's foot, he rounded the keeper and hammered home the game winner against all odds. As Matchtracker put it, Sierra Leone's error was not having anyone who could catch up in time to foul him.

Wow. Just wow. We play Spain on Wednesday afternoon, although with two wins in the first two games we are already assured of a berth in the quarterfinals. Freddy has two yellow cards now, which apparently is one shy of the number that would force him to sit out a game by the U-17 rules. I am not a big beliver in "clutch," particularly in baseball, but every time this kid steps on the field he seems to produce another miracle. Perhaps we might try him at second while Grudz is out. Did I mention "wow"?

In Adu We Trust. Go get 'em, Freddy.

posted by Scott at 11:26 AM : |

 

Cubs acquire Randall Simon

The Cubs traded minor league outfielder Ray Sadler to the Pirates today for Randall Simon. Simon is best known for being John Rocker's best pal in Atlanta as well as being the guy who took a swing at the sausage in Milwaukee a few weeks ago. Simon is a left-handed righty-mashing first baseman. As such, he is presumably meant to take first-base at-bats against righties away from current left-handed first baseman, one Mr. Hee Sop Choi. Let's go to the numbers:

Player	Year	Age	PA vs Left	OPS vs Left	PA vs Right	OPS vs Right
Simon	2001	26	47	.780	224	.788
Simon	2002	27	143	.599	356	.852
Simon	2003	28	36	.602	285	.738
Choi	2003	24	22	.552	210	.823

First, over 200 appearances around his peak age, Simon hasn't shown an ability to hit lefties. Choi has yet to get a major league opportunity against lefties though, so just to give Simon the benefit of the doubt let's call that category a draw. Against righties, Choi is out OPS'ing Simon by about a hundred points this year. Simon did manage an .852 last year but only .788 the year before that. All in all, I see no reason to think Simon is a better hitter than Choi against righties right now. According to the scouting report on espn.com, Simon is short with poor footwork and a poor arm, while Choi has received good reviews for his defensive work, so let's give Choi an edge there.

So we have two guys. The question you are faced with is do you trade a minor leaguer and take on salary in order to replace one of them with a guy who is at best an equal hitter, is an inferior defensive player, and is four years older?

To me, this is a no-brainer. Simon would be a nice enough pinch-hitter to add to the bench, but if he takes playing time from Choi as I suspect he will it will hurt us defensively and in the wallet in 2003 and it will hurt us on the field for years to come.

posted by Scott at 7:54 PM : |

 

Cubs split first two, reach first but give it back

Last night Sammy Sosa drove in both Cub runs and Mark Prior went all the way as the Cubs beat L.A. 2-1. The win, coupled with losses from Houston and St. Louis, put us back in first place. I missed the game because I went with some folks from the local SABR chapter to see the low-A Rome Braves face the Augusta Greenjackets. Its kind of nice to sit fifteen rows from the field for a tenth the normal price and enjoy a nice baseball game.

Sadly, I should have stayed away as watching the game on Fox this afternoon brought us. Aramis Ramirez popped two home runs to keep us in it early, but Kerry had nothing and three of the four Cub relievers gave up runs as well. The end result was a 10-5 thrashing at the hands of an utterly impotent Dodger lineup. Houston beat the Reds, sending us back where we were yesterday.

I am starting to worry a bit about Kerry. On July 1 he had a 2.90 ERA and was walking 3.8 men per nine innings. Since, his ERA has been 5.33 and he is walking 5.9 per nine. As exciting as our play has been for the last two weeks, I can't see a way to win the division without Prior and Wood performing at an All-Star level. We've been fretting about the pitch counts racked up by Prior, Zambrano, and especially Wood, and I can only hope they aren't catching up to him.

Its Carlos Zambrano versus Hideo Nomo tomorrow. Nomo has been equally tough on lefties and righties this year, but actually had a significant reverse split over the last few seasons. Carlos is on the best run of his short career and we (yet again) need him to bust out another strong performance.

posted by Scott at 5:43 PM : |

 

Slowly but surely

After fumbling away a strong start from ace pitcher Kerry Wood to open a critical series with the division leaders, the Cubs have come off the deck to win three straight, take the series, and close to within just a half-game of the division leaders. Today the hero was Alex Gonzalez, who buried his slump under a single, a double, a homer, a walk, and three ribbies in a 7-1 Cubs win. Matt Clement was not as sharp as he has been, but Dusty managed to get him out in time and the bullpen held the Astros scoreless over the final 3.1 innings to secure the win.

The Dodgers gave us a break today, using Kevin Brown on three days rest when Andy Ashby came down with the flu. As a result, right-hander Masao Kida will face Mark Prior tomorrow. Kida was ineffective in relief for the Tigers a few years back, but worked hard to catch on with a major league team again, even trying out with the Cubs in Mesa two years ago. He finally got a shot in the Dodger organization, and is 2-3 with a 4.48 in eleven starts and six relief appearances for AAA Las Vegas this year. We've won 13 of 19, and this is a golden opportunity to keep the good times rolling.

You know who

After two years of hype, I finally saw Freddy Adu play today. It took fifteen minutes for him to produce perhaps the best US goal I've ever seen. From the fifa.com match report:

Full ahead Mr. Adu, maximum warp.

(The US conceded an own goal early, but) far from letting their heads drop, the Americans hit back straight away with consistent danger man Adu leading the charge. Following some foraging early work, the youngster collected the ball 45 yards from goal, turned brilliantly and ghosted past four flat-footed Korean defenders with a stunning burst of speed. Rounding keeper Cha Ki Seok with ease, the prodigy slotted home with his left foot to send the US team into wild celebrations.

You have to see it to believe it. The best comparison I can come up with is to the overtime touchdown run Michael Vick had last year, the one you probably saw on the Espys about a million times. Like Vick, Adu was simply faster than the defense could comprehend. There were players in position to stop him, but he simply ran by them before they could react. I guess the difference is he did it dribbling a ball with his feet rather than carrying one in his hands. The finish was clinical, but anticlimactic after that phenomenal run with the ball. I don't have a video link, but catch it on Sportscenter if you get the chance.

Oh yeah, and he scored two other goals for the hat trick while the team annihilated pre-tournament darling South Korea 6-1. That's right, six goals for the US, while allowing no goals to Korena players. With the exception of yellow cards to three key American players and an iffy performance from keeper Phil Marfuggi, it simply could not have gone any better. Next up is Sierra Leone, early Sunday morning (7 a.m. EDT, live on Galavision.) All the disclaimers still stand (way too early), but there simply aren't words to describe how good the future looks for both Adu and his teammates.

posted by Scott at 10:56 PM : |

 

Alou, pen bail out Estes; Cubs close to 1.5

The Cubs managed a 3-2 lead through four, but when Shawn Estes three men including one with the bases loaded and one out things looked a bit grim. Dusty finally went to the pen though, and Mark Guthrie managed to stop the bleeding setting the stage for Moises to tuck a go-ahead three-run homer around the left field foul pole. Four more shutout innings from the pen and the Cubs had narrowed the gap once again.

Tomorrow Matt Clement faces Jared Fernandez with a chance to tie Houston in the loss column. Fernandez is a 31 year-old righty called up a couple weeks ago. He had only 51 strikeouts in 156 innings for New Orleans in the PCL, but he got by with good control (just 37 walks in that time). As for Clement, he has a career 6.54 ERA against the Astros and has been lit up by not only Bagwell and Berkman but also guys like Ausmus and Vizcaino. I've got faith in him though, so I'll take my chances with Matt tomorrow.

Its anybody's race

Baseball Prospectus debuts a new feature today, one that is well worth your time to check out. Basically, they project the rest of the season based on your hitters' raw stats, your pitchers' raw stats, and your schedule difficulty. A simple statistical distribution later, they've got the percentage chance that each team has of making the playoffs. Coming in to today's game we had a 34.2% chance of overtaking the Cardinals and Astros for the division, as well as a 2.6% chance of sneaking into the Wild Card (I capitalize its name due to my awe of its brilliance). They say they'll be updating it daily, so perhaps we can keep an eye on our fluctuating chances as we move ahead.

Adu-mania!

The US U-17 World Cup team takes the field for their first game tomorrow afternoon in Finland against South Korea. They will of course be lead by uber-phenom Freddy Adu, who has been warming up with games like last week's 24 minute hat trick against Blackburn's U-17s. You can get to know some of the players if you check out the hysterical web diary of Jules Valentin. I don't know why some kid gets top-notch writing ability and world class soccer talent to boot, but he's got it. This tournament was the start of international acclaim for players like Figo and Alessandro Del Piero, and just maybe one Fredua Koranteng Adu.
posted by Scott at 6:23 PM : |

 

Zambrano destroys Astros to even series

Carlos Zambrano pitched the game of his life last evening just as the Cubs needed it most. Alex Gonzalez hit a 2 run homer in the first to provide all the protection Carlos would need in a 3-0 whitewashing of the Astros. Zambrano scattered 5 hits over all nine innnings and more importantly walked only 2 men. The most dominating thing about the performance from my perspective is that a lot of his strikeouts were on good old fashioned hard ball. He would set the hitters up and then paint the black with the gas to seal the deal.

As mentioned above Alex Gonzalez hit a homer last night. He really needs to get some hits for this team, and his psyche. He has struggled recently as anyone who constantly hears Chip Caray update his struggles knows. Nothing like seeing him strike out and have the announcer state "Alex is in a 1 for 30 slump". Hee Seop alos got a start last evening and went 0 for 3 with a walk, but hit the ball hard at times. I love his approach at the plate.

Shawn Estes takes the mound this afternoon in a another huge game in this series. Win it and we are looking at being .5 games out after a win tomorrow. Lose it and the best we can hope for is a split which is not good since 4 games will come off he schedule. Add to the equation that the Cardinals are beating up on an inferior Pirate team and this is a big game. Personally, I think Estes will have a good game this afternoon. Nothing like the power of positive thinking.

Great, he's in the news again

As I am sure all have heard by now, Baseball Prospectus broke a story yesterday saying that Pete Rose and MLB have agreed to a deal where Rose could be employed by a team as early as 2004 and return to managing by 2005 without admitting guilt on baseball. This would also pave the way for a Pete Rose HOF induction.

Other sites can express their opinions more eloquently about this topic and it is one that has been beaten into the ground, but here is my take. The HOF is an independent organization that can do whatever it wants. Just recently has the rule been changed that people on the permanently ineligible list could not be inducted. I have no problem with them changing this rule and putting him in the Hall. On the other hand, I have major problems with him working in baseball again if he did bet on the game, which it appears he did given the evidence.

As fall and the football season approach, baseball will start to take a back seat on the national brain. I am just sad that when baseball is mentioned it will be this story rather than what is happening on the field.

posted by Dennis at 8:52 AM : |

 

Round 1 to Astros

Last night's 3-1 loss against the Astros was pretty much a microcosm for the Cubs season - a great pitching perfromance wasted. As the NOTD states, Kerry Wood made one mistake. He left a first pitch curve ball up in the strike zone to Jeff Kent in the 5th. He knocked it against the vines to give the Astros a lead they would never relinquish.

The Cubs would only muster one run against Houston starter Wade Miller and only hit two balls hard all night. Luckily they were in the same inning and it produced the run.

All over the blog world, this site included, the army has been calling for Hee Seop to start against right handers. It is especially more important to do this against Houston. Why? Because they have a lefty closer. How nice would it have been to bring up Karros in the ninth as the tying run instead of O'Leary and Gonzalez? As it stood, O'Leary stood five feet off the plate with a little stream of urine tracing down his leg as Wagner blazed strike threel over the outside corner. Gonzalez didn't do much better swinging at only one of the strikes.

Not only does it make no sense to leave Choi on the bench I get worried that it will alter his approach. Last evening when he pinch hit against Dotel, he swung at the first pitch. He does not do that very often. Maybe he thinks he has to be more aggressive to get starts. I certainly hope not.

Carlos looks to square up the series this evening against Redding for the Astros. Hopefully the bats will wake up and we can take the next 3 games.

posted by Dennis at 9:33 AM : |

 

Showdown time

Mark Prior was his dominant self and Sammy Sosa provided all of the Cubs offense in a 3-1 series salvaging victory over the Dodgers yesterday Coupled with Houston's win, the Cubs stand 2.5 games out of first place heading into the opener of a 4 game series this evening. A 3-1 series win puts the Cubs .5 games out of first while a sweep would give them the top spot.

The bad part about Prior pitching yesterday is that Houston will miss him altogether. Wood gets the ball this evening against Wade Miller. Miller handled all Cubs hitters this side of Carlos Zambrano in his last outing against them. Hopefully the Cubs will get to him a little earlier in this one.

Here is the tale of the tape between these NL Central contenders in a few categories:

• Houston ranks 2nd in bullpen ERA, Cubs 7th
  
• Cubs are 4th in starter's ERA, Houston 9th
  
• Houston is 5th in total ERA, Cubs 6th
  
• Houston is 4th in runs scored, Cubs are 12th
  

No real shocks in this list. The Cubs have a good pitching and defense although are weak with the hitting. Of course, Sosa is starting to heat up so this difference might shrink. On paper, it looks like a romp for the Astros, but games are played on grass (or turf or that funky hybrid easter egg stuff in Tampa Bay and Philly). The difference between the starters could very well make up for the difference between the offenses.

Weird Day Around the Majors

I am home watching Sportscenter this morning due to being between jobs and saw some highlights of some strange/historic plays. First in Atlanta Furcal turned an unassisted triple play. The genius Tony LaRussa decided to send his runners with no outs and the pitcher batting (albeit a good hitting pitched in Woody Williams). He lined out to Furcal who touched the bag and tagged the runner coming from first to complete the play.

In Toronto, a batter hit the ball off the pitcher and it bounced directly to the third basemen without touching the ground. The runner on first was caught half way, but the third basemen's throw to double him off went into the stands for a two base penalty. Only problem was the runner never went back and tagged up before taking his two bases. The Rangers got him called out on the subsequent appeal.

Something else I noticed

I have no clue why I mention these things on the site. Most of the time they just go to show how slow I am to pick up on things, but did you ever notice that there is a different voice over for those Boys and Girls Club commercials that run during baseball telecasts. I am sure most have seen these spots with Zito, Thome, Pettitte, Sweeney, Anderson and Young. If the commercial comes on during a Fox telecast, Joe Buck is doing the talking. During ESPN you hear the voice of Harold Reynolds. Does it mean anything, no, but I thought it was interesting.
posted by Dennis at 8:41 AM : |

 

Prior asked to save Cubs from sweep

I wasn't going to bring this up when we were on a winning streak, but now that the worm has turned perhaps bringing it up will get things moving in the right direction again. A week or so ago the Cubs were in the midst of a historic run of following wins with losses and losses with wins. They couldn't put even a two-game streak together for anything. As soon as I wrote that though, they naturally ran off a four-game win streak followed by back-to-back losses to the Dodgers. The only logical conclusion is the Cubs are conspiring to undercut anything I write.

Anyway, a pair of missed opportunities the last two days have left us 2.5 games back. Friday night Shawn Estes allowed just three runs over seven innings despite putting twelve men on and allowing a homer to Adrian Beltre. Sadly, the Cubs offense was unable to take advantage, scoring only one run against the Estesesque Andy Ashby and being set down in order for four innings by the dominant Dodger bullpen.

Yesterday, the Dodgers tallied four in the first off Matt Clement and the Cubs never threatened to get back in it. The lone Cub run was provided on a too-little too-late solo homer in the eighth by Damian Miller.

Back-to-back one run games for our batters highlights the fact that despite the trade for two substantial offensive upgrades, the Cubs offense hasn't gotten any better in the seventeen days since. In the 99 games before the trade the Cubs scored 453 runs for a 4.58 average. In the 16 games since, the Cubs have managed just 58 runs for a 3.625 average. That has something to do with Lofton's pedestrian.734 Cub OPS and Ramirez's dreadful .593. The trade can't really be blamed- partly because the people they replaced were even worse and partly because the Sample Size Police would ticket me if I didn't acknowledge that its only been two weeks- but it would be nice if they would start hitting and lead our offense up around a 5.0 runs per game mark.

Today we ask Mark Prior to face down comeback kid Kevin Brown and salvage a game in the series. Prior has never faced the Dodgers, but as weak as their offense is you'd have to imagine he is set up for a strong performance. Brown has been equally lights-out against lefties and righties, so Mark may need to shut L.A. out to give us a shot.

posted by Scott at 11:02 AM : |

 

Cubs win ninth out of their last twelve

What do you get when you cross Prior, Wood, and Zambrano with the worst team in the National League? A three-game sweep and a Houston lead in the Central trimmed to a game and a half, naturally. Carlos allowed just one run on seven singles and three walks while striking out eight. He was less efficient than in recent starts- he ran up 119 pitches in his six innings of work- but at least Dusty didn't quite as brutally as he might have. The Cubs pretty well dominated the series, but Padre third baseman Sean Burroughs has to be particularly glad to see the Cubs leave town. He was 0-10 against Cub pitching with strikeouts in five of his last six at-bats.

The Cubs head up the coast tonight to visit the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers offense is a distant last in the league, scoring less than 3.5 runs per game. Meanwhile, their pitching is far better than anyone else's, allowing just 3.3 runs per game. The Cubs of course are kind of a Dodgers-Lite, with good but not great pitching and mediocre but not horrendous offense. Mix them up and throw them in the best pitcher's park in baseball, and you get what looks on paper like a series out of 1968. If there is to be an exception, you would expect it to be tonight as Shawn Estes (7-8, 5.70) tangles with Andy Ashby (2-9, 5.49).

Not even Mike Tyson could mishandle a sentence this badly

William Ligue, who attacked Kansas City first-base coach Tom Gamboa last year, was sentenced to thirty months of probation by Cook County judge Leo Holt yesterday. In his sentencing order, Holt said that Ligue should not spend a day in jail because there is violence in baseball. Holt also refused to bar Ligue from Major League ballparks during his probation. "I want to thank Judge Leo Holt for being compassionate toward my case," said Ligue after the sentence was handed down. "I don't think another judge in courthouse would have given probation."

Holt preemptively responded to those who would challenge his decision, saying that "a sentence of probation should not be viewed as a pass or a slap on the wrist. The defendant is a convicted felon. He will bear that stigma for the balance of his life."

Setting aside the fact that Cook County prosecutors have had to file complaints about Holt in the past for his absurdly light sentencing, this decision sickens me. Arguing that there should be no jail time for Ligue because there has been violence in baseball is in essence arguing that Gamboa's participation in a sport that has some violence means he at least partially deserved to be attacked. It's "I could tell by the fact he was playing baseball that he was asking for it." I would love to see what violence Holt would find appropriate to commit against a hockey coach, or maybe a football referee.

Tom Gamboa has a permanent hearing problem from Ligue's attack. But at least Ligue will have to bear the stigma of being a convicted felon as he sits in the first-base stands at tonight's Royals game if he so chooses. Poor guy.

posted by Scott at 8:45 AM : |

 

Welcome win streak moves Cubs into second place

Kerry Wood and Sammy Sosa hooked up to lead the Cubs past the Padres, guaranteeing the fourth consecutive series win for Baker's boys. Wood struck out ten in 7 1/3 innings, but stayed in one inning too long as he gave up a solo homer to leadoff the eighth. I've got to do a study at some point and find out whether it is just my imagination that Dusty's starting pitchers get bloodied in their last inning at an extremely high rate. Anyway, Guthrie and Dr. Tightpants got out of the eighth and JoBo came back from a rough weekend to throw a seven-pitch perfect ninth.

Dusty stuck with Choi after the prior day's 0-3 with two errors, and was rewarded with a single and a walk in four times at the plate. Showing patience towards or faith in Choi is something new for Dusty. Here's hoping it continues against every right-handed opposing starter the rest of the way. Tonight's game pits Kevin Jarvis against Carlos Zambrano. Jarvis is a righty but one with no appreciable platoon split, so perhaps our heavily right-handed lineup can have some success with him. A win would mean the team's first sweep since we took four in Milwaukee in mid-May.

L Series?

I am not in Chicago, but I presume the fact that the Cubs and White Sox are both hovering within a couple of game of first place in their respective divisions is drawing some attention from the locals. Obviously we are still a long way from saying a Cubs/Sox World Series is likely, but the possibility is tantalizing. When I was growing up, my dad would always listen to the American League scores in hopes that the White Sox would win for the express purpose of giving the Cubs a chance to stick it to them in the Series. A big benefit to winning such a series would be is that there isn't much chance of the White Sox returning the favor any time soon. After all, we've been trying to live down the '06 World Series loss to them for 97 years now. No matter what happened in future years, we could always end any argument by saying "2003." I can also vouch for the fact that this technique works well on any Mexicans who want to talk soccer. They can say whatever they want, and you can always just come back with "2-0".
posted by Scott at 8:51 AM : |

 

Cubs return to Prior dominance

The Cubs won a heart stopping ballgame last evening 3-0 behind the return of Mark Prior, the emergence of Aramis Ramirez, and despite the fielding of Hee Seop Choi and the aforementioned Ramirez. Just a fun game to watch all around. I know this because I was dumb enought to watch the whole thing from San Diego which means a tired morning in the east.

The story of the night was definitely Prior. Limited to only about 80 pitches, he completed six innings of shutout baseball allowing only 3 baserunners and striking out six. The funny thing is that he probably pitched 80% fastballs and San Diego still could not touch him. Sir Tightpants made the game interesting as he loaded the bases in the 7th before giving way to Mark Guthrie. Guthrie got out of the inning by striking out a guy on 3-1 and 3-2 curveballs which were both out of the zone and inducing a high chopper to Ramirez who grabbed it and won a sprint to 3rd base to get a force play. I made this play sound easier than it was. In actuality it was a heck of a play.

The Cubs offense was not great, but with Prior pitching they don't need to be. Kim got another baserunner killed at home plate or the final difference might have been more.

After watching San Diego starter Brian Lawrence pitch I am not surprised he is having a tough season. I have never seen a right hand pitcher throw more inside sliders to right handers. Most hurlers start this pitch in the middle of the plate letting it break out of the zone looking for fishermen. He starts his inside and has it break over the plate. I am not sure I would ever want to intentionally have a ball break towards the sweet spot of the bat.

Good news abound yesterday for Cubs' fans as Houston and St. Louis both fell. That leaves the Cubs 2.5 games out of first and .5 games out of second. This is shaping up to be a good road trip. They have Wood and Zambrano left against the Padres and then the red hot pitcher of the week Clement, Estes, and Prior against the offensively challenged Dodgers. If Estes has to pitch, it might as well be against the Dodgers at their stadium. Things are looking up, lets see the Cubs grab this bull by the horns and play Houston next week to distance themselves instead of catching up.

Career Path

Well, the car shopping journey is finally over. I can now spend less time at cars.com and more time reading about baseball. I found a nice 2000 truck off lease with low miles for a fair price, so I am happy. I drove my father's truck all through high school and college and missed it.

If this statisitician thing does not work out I want to be the mystery guy at car dealerships who the salesmen have to ask about every price. I make an offer and the salesmen disappears for 10 minutes and then comes back with a counter. I need to be the guy they see. My wife said it reminds her of the guy behind the curtain in The Wizard of Oz .

posted by Dennis at 7:42 AM : |

 

Around the Cubs

The Cubs and most of the rest of baseball had the day off, so there is nothing really new to write about. That means I get to make a list of random stats, thoughts and tidbits about mainly the Cubs and some about baseball in general. All of the stats come from ESPN's web site.

• Sammy Sosa posted an above 1.000 OPS in July. It was mainly due to slugging though. He batted over .300, but his OBP was a very un-Sammy like .342. He only drew 6 walks during the whole month.
  
• Before he got hurt, Goodwin was on absolute fire. I have poked fun at him on this site, and I am sure it was a fluke, but .381/.422/.452 is a glorious fluke.
  
• Moises Alou also slugged the heck out of the ball last month. He managed to post a .604 slugging percentage to go with hie .360+ OBP.
  
• Kerry Wood and Shawn Estes have the same 5.4 ERA in the second half. I don't look for that trend to continue.
  
• Collectively, batters are hitting to a .919 OPS clip against the Cubs when the bases are loaded.
  
• As of today, 4 of the 6 divisions have races within 4 games. I am sure Selig will come up with a way to take credit for the wonderful parity in baseball.
  

That is about all the semi-interesting stuff I could find while poking through the numbers.

Mental breakthrough

I was taking Wrigley for a walk yesterday and I made a wonderful discovery. Sometimes it is very hard to judge the age of neighbors. My wife and I pay close attention to this because there are very few younger couples in the neighborhood that we have met. We are always on the lookout.

I figured out a tell-tale sign to figure out if someone is under 30. Look at what clothes they wear while mowing the lawn. If it is sports shorts and a T-shirt then they are young. Jeans and a work type shirt, you can be guess they are older. At what age do people decide they would rather be hot than comfortable when doing lawn work?

The greatest idea ever

I am at the age where I go to many, many, many, many weddings. I bet my wife and I have attended 15-20 over the last three years (including my own which is probably the one I remember the least, thank goodness for video). All weddings have one major problem, the unity candle. The candle itself takes about 20 seconds to light. There is usually a song playing which lasts about 3-4 minutes. The bride and groom have to stand up there and do nothing during this extra time. That brings me to a new invention...the unity sandwich.

The mother of the bride comes up and puts peanut butter on one slice of bread, the groom's mother puts jelly on another. Then the happy couple combines the sandwich, cuts it in half and chows down. Symbolically you have the joining of families, and logistically you have something to fill the time for the entire song. Plus, the bride and groom are usually so nervous before the wedding, they probably have empty stomachs. Bingo!! Now, they get a tide me over before the reception. It is up to you Northside Lounge readers to make this idea become a reality.

Update

Northside Lounge reader Marc Velazquez alerted me to a Freudian misspelling earlier. I said Selig would take credit for baseball's parody when I in fact meant parity. Of course Selig is a parody of a real commissoner so maybe it was fitting.

It is weird how you always have mental crutches in your life. Parody/parity has always been one for me. I will make this mistake about 5 times a year in print or on message boards. Another one is plaque/plague. When I was moving I marked a box full of "plagues and other stuff". People were scared to open that one...wonder why.

posted by Dennis at 8:02 AM : |

 

Clement, Sosa combine to take rubber game

Sammy Sosa hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the seventh to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 win. Matt Clement allowed just three hits in eight innings for his eighth consecutive quality start. Hee Sop Choi chipped in a single, a double, and a walk in four plate appearances. Now if only he would get his stroke back maybe he could help us.

The Cubs haven't made up ground in the Central because all three contenders seem to be heating up at the same time. That's a bit disappointing, but if we hadn't gotten hot lately we could easily have been seven or eight games out and ready to pack it in. The team travels to San Diego today before kicking off a three game set with the Padres tomorrow night. Mark Prior is scheduled to make his return from the DL to face Brian Lawrence. The Padres were horrendous early in the year, but have played much better of late winning nine of their last 17 and 18 of their last 32.

Soccer news- but don't tune out, there's baseball in it too

The U-17 (that's for players less than seventeen years old) World Cup kicks off in Finland in two weeks. In 1999 the event produced star turns for Landon Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley, who were named tournament MVP and runner-up respectively en route to their spectacular success in the World Cup in 2002. This time, American attention is focused on Freddy Adu, the fourteen year-old kid with the million dollar Nike deal. I was already excited to see Freddy play for the first time (although there are some sick highlights on the web), but this weekend's news just added to it. The team is training in England, and as part of their preparation they played Blackburn Rovers' U-17 team. Freddy came on as a substitute in the second half and scored not one- not two- but three goals in twenty-four minutes to lead the US to a 4-2 win. Remember, this kid is playing with guys two and three years older than him. In my head I know I shouldn't be this excited about a kid so young, but it's hard not to like what he has done so far.

I promised some baseball in the soccer section, so here it is. Sabremetrics has gone mainstream in the last year or two, with Moneyball hitting the best-seller lists and sabre-friendly GM's running three different major league teams. Although all sports keep statistics of some sort, most have been slower to follow the Jamesian philosophy of looking deeper inside the numbers for some hidden objective truths. There is a fascinating thread on the discussion site Big Soccer in which people are discussing applying sabremetric ideas to soccer. Its an interesting read if you are into sabremetrics or soccer, and a must-read if you follow both.

Power surge

Finally, I have an update on my personal quest to hit a home run for the company softball team. I went out to take some BP with a friend of mine, and we ran into about a dozen high school baseball players who had come out to hit the ball too. Next thing we knew, we were in an actual pickup baseball game, the first one I have played in since high school. In my third at-bat, I managed to get a hold of one and hit it over the fence in left-center. I was so surprised I didn't even think to do the Sosa hop! After a couple hours, we got bumped to a bigger field by some old folks who had reserved the field we were on. We played a few more innings, then wrapped up the day with a home run derby. As I took my turn, nearly everyone else had already gone and nobody had managed to hit one out (even though there had been seven or eight in-game homers hit and at least one on the big field). Down to my last out, I skied one to dead center and began to walk back to the dugout. Much to my surprise, it carried about three feet over the center field fence giving me the home run derby crown with one homer. If you are like me and haven't hit a homer in a long, long time, let me say I highly recommend it. Now I just have to transfer my newfound power stroke into a game that counts.
posted by Scott at 10:31 AM : |

 

The Cubs taketh and then giveth away

I was on the road yesterday (not a surprising turn of events for a weekend), so I did not see any of the Cubs game yesterday, but I was able to catch a significant portion on the radio in Indianapolis and finally part of the ninth off an ESPN or FoxSports radio broadcast as I got back to Cincinnati. Sorry to say I caught the bad part of the ninth.

Dave Campbell was the color man and boy was he colorful aboiut Borowski. As he was warming up Campbell said something to the effect of "he is a nice story and all, but he only has two pitches and is not the type to lead a team to the playoffs". He also added that he was big on heart and short on talent. Yikes! Joe has actually done pretty decent this season, but I guess he does not have the flashy dominant closer title.

Joe did wind up blowing the game though as we all now. The homerun is one thing, but the consecutive hits after the fact pretty much shows he was gassed. Reminds of an earlier game where he gave up a three run homer in the ninth to blow a Prior victory. Closers will have days like that and thankfully for the Cubs his have been few and far between.

It would have been great to have gotten on a little win streak, but these are the Cubs. The one up one down fashion continnues on. If all follows suit this afternoon, they will win and take the series.

In bad news for the Cubs, Grudz got Bagwelled yesterday and will miss four weeks. Bobby Hill is on the DL, so he cannot be called up (of course he has light skin and less than 5 years playing experience so he would join Choi on the bench after a 5 AB tryout). That leaves the Cubs with Ramon Martinez. Usually thought of as a good fielder, Jason Steffens talks about how the numbers do not bear this out. From my observation at a game in Cincinnati, I thought his reactions were slow. His first steps looks like they were taken with concrete shoes. Of course, speed is more important than quickness at second base compared to third.

Notice how I used a proper name as a verb in the last paragraph (Bagwelled). That got me to thinking about other baseball players who names I could use as verbs. Fell free to add some in the comments section.

• Bagwelled - To be hit on the hand by a pitched ball
  
• Sosaed - To hop out of pure excitement
  
• Grudzielaneked - To throw up after too much drinking
  
• Aloued - To check swing
  
• Piazzaed - Better ask the posters at Baseball Primer about this one
  
• Farnsworthed - To tackle, destroy and emasculate
  
• Alfonsecaed - To give 120% percent
  
• Alomared - To spit in the direction of another person
  
• Schillinged - To give your opinion when no one asked
  
• Glavined - To be regretful of taking more money
  
• Clemensed - To confuse wooden objects for baseballs
  
• Biggioed - To have an unnatural fascination with pine par
  
• Pujoised - To remain youthful looking and acting at 28
  
• Booned - To flip objects with excitement
  

OK, that is enough. Feel free to add others. Enjoy the game this afternoon.

posted by Dennis at 8:34 AM : |

 

I will remember you

Lenny Harris 2003-2003

I will remember you
Will you remember me?
Don't let your life pass you by
Weep not for the memories

Remember the good times that we had?
I let them slip away from us when things got bad
How clearly I first saw you smilin' in the sun
Wanna feel your warmth upon me, I wanna be the one

I will remember you
Will you remember me?
Don't let your life pass you by
Weep not for the memories

I'm so tired but I can't sleep
Standin' on the edge of something much too deep
It's funny how we feel so much but we cannot say a word
We are screaming inside, but we can't be heard

But I will remember you
Will you remember me?
Don't let your life pass you by
Weep not for the memories

I'm so afraid to love you, but more afraid to loose
Clinging to a past that doesn't let me choose
Once there was a darkness, deep and endless night
You gave me everything you had, oh you gave me light

And I will remember you
Will you remember me?
Don't let your life pass you by
Weep not for the memories

And I will remember you
Will you remember me?
Don't let your life pass you by
Weep not for the memories
Weep not for the memories

posted by Scott at 11:44 PM : |

 

Win Streak!

The Chicago Cubs survived a wild fourteen-inning game tonight and came out with a most improbable win. Curt Schilling and Juan Cruz matched zeros on the scoreboard through five until Arizona took a 1-0 lead on a bloop Luis Gonzalez single. With the rain coming down harder, the Cubs needed a run to tie the game and stave off the rainout loss. Realizing the importance of the situation, Dusty called on pinch-hitting specialist Lenny Harris who responded by poking a single to left. A sac bunt, an infield single, and a sac fly later the game was tied. Then the rains came...

About three hours later, the game started back up with the weak fans cleared out of the ballpark. Both pens held up till the eleventh, when Steve Finley leadoff with a single and Raul Mondesi followed with a bloop to put runners at first and third. Another bloop single from Rod Barajas plated both men and the Cubs trailed 3-1. Sosa and Alou went quietly in the bottom half, and all seemed lost. Then some guy turned to his girlfriend (who was wearing a Mark Grace jersey by the way) and proposed...

Base hit Karros, base hit Aramis Ramirez, pinch-hit double Troy O'Leary, WFK sends Ramirez who somehow beats the tag on a heart-stopping play, and its time for more free baseball! Vegas wouldn't have touched the odds on that particular series of events transpiring, and yet the evening's improbabilities weren't nearly over.

Antonio Alfonseca entered the game, and promptly loaded the bases in the twelfth but managed to escape unscathed. He gained steam in the 13th allowing only a walk, and flat-out dominated in a perfect 14th. That's right, three scoreless innings from the Lenny Harris of the pen.

After all that, it was well past time for the Cubs to put Arizona out of their misery. Sammy singled with one out, Alou followed with a single of his own, and Eric Karros (to his credit) drew a walk to load them up. Aramis showed great patience, taking three pitches outside the zone to run it to 2-1 (ask the ump how that adds up), then fouling off two pitches before hammering one the opposite way over Raul Mondesi's head for the win.

Just a wild, crazy, unbelievable, draining game. Kudos to the few hundred fans who had the guts to stick it out, and to the Cubs players for fighting all the way. If its not too much to ask, could we please try to build on this momentum tomorrow instead of just turning around and heading back toward .500? I know I am asking a lot, seeing as how Shawn Estes is scheduled to face Miguel Batista, but it would mean a lot to me...

posted by Scott at 12:36 AM : |

 

Sisyphean Cubs start climb again

I know how Dennis loves this shot. This time, Moises is stoic.

Carlos Zambrano won his third straight start as the Cubs again closed the gap to 3.5 games. Sammy Sosa delivered the offense with an RBI double and a three-run homer, and JoBo threw an eight-pitch perfect ninth to close it out. Zambrano's line would have been better, but Dusty left him in one inning too long (where have you heard that before?)

Carlos drew some criticism from Barry Bonds after Bonds saw his soft bases-loaded liner land in Zambrano's glove in the fifth. I certainly don't have a problem with a little fist pumping as long as Carlos keeps mowing down hitters. Although he still isn't getting much respect from people who don't follow the Cubs, Zambrano continues to be among the most valuable Cubs. He has actually passed Mark Prior and is closing in on Kerry Wood in SNWL (not updated for yesterday's game as I write). I guess we should be glad there isn't an inferior veteran option at hand or Carlos might find himself on the Greyhound to Iowa.

Which brings me to Hee Sop Choi. Reports are that the Cubs were prepared to trade a "top pitching prospect" to Texas to reaquire Rafael Palmeiro. It is mind boggling how little faith Dusty and Hendry have in Hee Sop Choi. As Steffens sagely points out, even if you ignore the long-term benefits of playing Choi, and even if you disregard the fact that Eric Karros has some regressing to the mean to do, Hee Sop Choi is still out-hitting Karros against righties. He is out-hitting Palmeiro against righties. He is a better hitter against righties than any other option we have, but the people in charge of this team refuse to see, and thus we give away chances to win. I guess with Lenny Harris finally pushed to the side, Jim and Dusty need another focus for their collective moments of idiocy.

The Cubs welcome the best starting rotation in the National League to Wrigley for three afternoon games this weekend. We'll miss Randy Johnson, but we do get Curt Schilling (2.91 ERA) today, Miguel Batista (2.72) tomorrow, and Brandon Webb (2.48) Sunday. We answer with Juan Cruz, Shawn Estes, and Matt Clement. I think its fair to say we have our work cut out for us. The good news is the Arizona offense has actually been a little less potent than ours, so we've got that going for us, which is nice.

posted by Scott at 10:17 AM : |

 

Once step forward, one step back

It would be a lot easier to write about the Cubs if they would give us a lengthy streak of some sort. Plot-based writing is supposed to have some kind of narrative flow. Events occur, the plot moves forward, it builds to an exciting climax, and everyone either dies or lives happily ever after. Not so with our team. We just run in place. Unfortunately, our competition isn't bound to be so stagnant.

This is all a way of saying the Giants used a second-inning grand slam off Kerry Wood to lead them to a 6-3 victory in Wrigley yesterday. Kenny Lofton hit his first homer as a Cub to break up Jason Schmidt's no-hitter in the sixth, so at least we were spared that indignity. The Astros and Cardinals both won, taking back the games the Cubs had made up the day before. Sigh.

The trade deadline cometh

Year	Age	EqA	ISOO	ISOS	OPS PLAT
2000	29	.236	.032	.067	+.121
2001	30	.235	.023	.113	+.164
2002	31	.236	.043	.095	+.090
2003	32	.229	.022	.087	+.029

The Cubs made another move yesterday, acquiring Doug Glanville for Lansing Lugnut outfielder Jason Franz and cash. Doug's EqA, isolated OBP, isolated SLG, and platoon differential versus lefties are in the chart on the right. Trenidad Hubbard heads to Iowa to clear a spot for Glanville. As you can see, Glanville offers little power and even less OBP-ness, so his value is mostly in his no-longer impressive batting average. He can hit lefties a little bit, and he is an upgrade over Hubbard at least. We didn't give up much in Franz (a 22-year old single-A outfielder without anything exciting on the stat sheet), so I am fine with the deal I suppose. Still, it shakes out to some small fraction of a win on paper, so I don't think its nearly enough. Jim Hendry still has six hours to the deadline, so perhaps he might have one more deal up his sleeve.

I am Sammy Sosa

I am in my third year on the company softball team, and despite a few decent hitting performances I still have a big fat zero in the home run column. I have vowed to hit one in a game by the end of next year, but I haven't made much progress toward that goal so far. I am limited by the fact that I have no speed and thus can't hit an inside-the-parker. Also, I have no power and thus can't hit an over-the-fencer. I went out and took BP yesterday afternoon, and I hit a few to the base of the outfield fence marked 300 feet. Before long some players showed up for an actual game, so we moved to the tiny field and I did manage to hit one out there. I'll mention it here if I make any progress toward my goal, and rest assured you'll get a banner headline if I ever actually get one out. I'm practicing the hop and the kiss for the camera, so I'll be ready when the moment comes.
posted by Scott at 9:43 AM : |

 

Clement dominates in series opening win

Usually the Cubs batters are the ones tipping their hats after games, but after Tuesday's 3-0 shutout victory the Giants batters are the ones doing the tipping. Clement was simply brilliant allowing only 2 hits (an infield it and a bloop shot). He also struck out 8 Giants and walked 2. It was his first shutout since 2002.

Lots of Matt's starts have been tainted by lack of offensive support and just a couple of mistake pitches. It was nice to see the other pitcher make the mistake. Moises Alou hit an 0-2 fastball out of the park in the fist inning to account for all 3 Cub runs.

The Astros lost to the Braves last evening, so the Cubs crept closer to first place. They are 3.5 games behind the juice men and 1.5 games behind the Redbirds. The Astros might be in some trouble again though as Roy Oswalt left the game with a tender right groin that may end his season. I think Oswalt should become a Red so he can join other players with fragile bodies. They also traded for Yankee reliever yesterday Dan Miceli. I thought the Yankees were supposed to have a bad bullpen while the Astros have a good one? Interesting move.

Today's ballgame is a battle of All-Star hurlers. Jason Schmidt takes the hill for the Giants and the Cubs counter with Kerry Wood. The Cubs are looking to make a nice little run in the Central and also in the Wild Card race.

Speaking of All-Star pitchers, the Cubs got some good news on the Prior front yesterday. He pitched 25 pain free pitches off the mound. This sets him up to come off the DL soon if his legs and arm are in decent condition. Obviously, the Cubs chances of putting together any sort of meaningful fun are directly proportional to him coming back.

I see that WGN started using an in-game ticker during its broadcasts. It is sponsored by the Chicago Tribune. I am sure Cubs will use all the extra revenue from the product placement on players and minor league development. They are getting fair market value for the ad, right? OK, probably not.

Finally a little off topic story to brighten your day. I need some new wheels since my new job will be farther away. I hate car shopping mainly because I always like to check out cars before talking to a saleman, but they generally come up and make small talk before you get the chance. I finally figured out the secret to peaceful shopping, my dog. Granted, Boxers are not mean by any strecth of the imagination. They are hyper though and if you don't know dogs, they could look mean. Basically a saleman thinks twice before approaching me and my bounding, springing dog.

The funniest part is when they get the guts to come close and ask, "does your dog bite?". I just shrug and say, "I'm not sure, we don't take her out much." Advantage me.

posted by Dennis at 8:25 AM : |

 

Ups and downs

If you are like me, the Cubs have had you pulling out your hair all season long. As and another thing! was discussing this weekend, it seems like every time we come through with a big win we follow it with a momentum-killing loss. The Zambrano game? Followed by a 3-1 loss. Alex Gonzalez's walkoff infield single against the Cardinals a few weeks ago? Followed by a 4-1 loss. Sosa's ninth inning homer for a 1-0 win in Philly? Followed by a 12-2 loss. Actually, it seems like more often than not, we never seem to get a streak of any kind going.

This being a blog run by a statistician and an engineer, let's take a look at the numbers and find out if we really have been prone to following up wins with losses and vice versa. Keith Karchner had an essay in SABR's "The Best of By the Numbers" that gives a method for determining what the chances of a team with a given winning percentage having a certain number of streaks is (although if you dig it up, be careful because there is an exponent missing in his variance formula.) The Cubs are 52-52. The mean number of streaks (where a streak is a run of wins surrounded by a loss on either end, or vice versa) you would expect for such a team is 53. The Cubs have had 67 such runs.

Chugging through the numbers we find that there is a 0.4% chance that a .500 team playing 104 games would have at least this many streaks by chance alone. This is well under the standard 5% chance commonly used to gauge statisticial significance. That's about one .500 team this incapable of putting a winning (or losing) streak together every 256 seasons. Obviously there are other variables at play (Wood and Prior were pitching back-to-back for a while, playing several consecutive games against the same opponent, etc), but its still interesting to me.

The Cubs get back to it tomorrow evening as Matt Clement (7-9, 4.37) takes on Damian Moss (9-6, 4.75). Moss's numbers don't look particularly good, and that's before you account for the fact that he pitches in the best pitcher's park in baseball. His overriding statistical characteristic is that he strikes out very few batters- only about one every two innings. He has been tougher on righties this year, but last year it was the other way around so it may not mean much. If you are curious, some kid named Barry Bonds has hit Clement better than any other Giant- 6 for 14 with three homers, three walks, a 1.672 OPS and only one strikeout. Of the eight Cubs pitchers who have faced Barry more than once, Kerry Wood has allowed the lowest OPS at .903. Scary.

posted by Scott at 10:26 PM : |

 

Cubs win "must-win" series

I've been kind of comatose all weekend, thus the lack of an update yesterday. I had mono my freshman year of college, so perhaps its a recurrence. Anyway, the Cubs soldiered on in my absence, losing 3-1 yesterday but coming back to win 5-3 today to take the series. The win leaves us 4.5 back of Houston, about the minimum I think most of us would have accepted at the end of this series to still feel like we were in the race.

Kenny Lofton had his best game as a Cub, stealing a base and lacking only a homer for a cycle. He was cut down at the plate in the first inning on a play I'll blame Kim for even though I didn't technically get to see it. Shawn Estes survived five innings (allowing one run on three walks, four hits, and a homer), and for once Dusty lifted him when he had the chance. Since Shawn's dark side didn't come out today, I presume it means six more weeks of Estes. We are off tomorrow before welcoming Barry Bonds and the Giants Tuesday.

Briefly, the US soccer team defeated Costa Rica 3-2 to take third place in the Gold Cup. Defender Carlos Bocanegra (whose incredibly cool Off the Ball columns have propelled him into a dead heat with DaMarcus Beasely as my favorite national team player) scored for the second time in two games, and Bobby Convey tallied his first for his country. Ernie Stewart had a rocket of a volley for a goal as well. The next big event for the US is the U-17 World Cup where a certain 14 year-old makes his debut on the world stage. Our first game is August 14th against South Korea, so you can be pretty sure I won't try to force soccer down your throat for at least the next two weeks.

Finally, I am going to go out on a limb here and say that Lance Armstrong is a good cyclist. He overcame injuries, crashes, and even the oddsmakers to capture his record-tying fifth consecutive Tour de France today, one hundred years after the Tour was first won. Not much new to say about this truest of American athletic heroes, so I'll just leave you with his quote from after yesterday's Tour-clinching time trial: "I'll be back next year, and I'm not coming back to be second."

posted by Scott at 6:51 PM : |

 

Baker: Genius or luckiest man alive?

That is the main question in my mind this evening after a thrilling 5-3 win over the Astros. As mentioned yesterday this is by far the biggest series of the season to date. The Cubs need at least 2 of 3. Things looked bleak early as the 'stros jumper out to a 3-0 lead in the first. I did not see the first inning, but apparently there was some bad defense. Chip reminded me of it 35 times over the course of the next 7 innings. The Cubs got one back on a Moises single in the sixth (I think, I am at the in-laws house writing this on AOL, and don't feel comfortable multi-tasking over to check the box score, so it is just me and my memory this morning).

In the seventh inning the Cubs got a runner on base with the pitcher Carlos Zambrano due up. At this point he is the tying run, had pitched six innings of wonderful baseball, and should basically have been taken down for Choi, right, right? Dusty actually let him hit. I was beside myself. I told my wife I was finally done with this team and was going to start an Oakland A's blog.

Then Wade Miller hung an 0-2 curve ball and Carlos tied the game. Unbelievable. I guess now you have to decide which is more important the process or the results. I tend to think process because if you make the right moves and execute them correctly, then over the long season results will follow. Of course, who can really argue with the results here. To be honest if Baker would have chosen Lenny Harris to bat instead of Choi, then I am glad he left Carlos in. Of course, I go to Choi 100 times out of 100 in this situation (well to be fair against Miller Choi would have been starting for me). Good thing I am not the manager.

With the game tied in the 8th inning, Moises Alou turned around a Dotel fastball with Grudz on base to put up the final margin of victory. Baker was trying to get a complete game from Carlos, but a Berkman single in the ninth brought out Joe to nail down the final 2 outs. The Cubs look to build on the momentum of this game this afternoon. It feels great to get win 1 especially in a nice comeback fashion against their number 2 pitcher.

Revelation

A lot of Cub fans cannot stand Chip Caray. I personally do not have a vested interest either way. I have heard much better and much worse. Last eveing though I think I finally put my finger on what makes him annoying to some - he nags. Instead of just calling the game he always brings up negative things that have happened over the course of the game. If someone grounds out to end an inning it is, "There is a ground ball and the Cubs earlier failure to move the runner costs them a run as Alou is retired." Sometimes a player strikes out and you get this, "Here is the 2-2, strike 3 batter could not hold up on the 1 strike pitch and it costs him here." After every inning it is, "The Cubs have played shoddy defense in the first and trail at the end of 7". It is almost like the Price is Right game Plinko. He has about 7 verbal crutches he clings to during a game. He will start a conversation and it will bounce around, but always wind up in one of seven bins to finish the thought. Anyone else quantify why they don't like Chip?

And finally

I just checked my contract and darn it if I don't have to give a Tour de France update. If this is wrong anyone can correct me in the comments section. Lance holds a 65 second lead heading into the final 2 stages. Today's stage is a time trial and everyone on ESPN is saying this is the money stage. Ullrich seems to be the odds on favorite to gain some time back, but if he cannot get within 10-20 seconds, then experts expect Lance to win it on Sunday. This is the German's last real chance. Sounds sort of like when you are 2 runs down in the 8th inning with the heart of the order up. If you don't score then, the ninth does not look good. Good luck Lance.

Edited by Scott at 11:37 EDT to add:Lance has placed third in the final time trial today, beating Jan Ullrich by eleven seconds and extending his overall lead to 1'16". Call it an insurance run. The drive for five wraps up with the largely ceremonial final stage tomorrow. If you get the Outdoor Life channel, check it out from 9:00- 11:00 in the morning.

posted by Dennis at 8:50 AM : |

 

Look who's back, back again

Its been a long time since I have actually posted to my little creation. Hectic work schedules and the possibility of a new job have limited my activity. That is pretty over now because I put in notice yesterday and will be moving on. It is a relief to be done with the whole working/interview cycle and have everything in place. I look forward to closing up everything at the old place.

As I officially ended my streak at my current employer, the Cubs ended a somewhat impressive streak yesterday. They were swept for the first time all season if memory serves. Everything was looking great until the 6th inning when Philadelphia put up a nine spot and held on to beat the Cubs 14-6. Baker got a lot of his relievers in the game again in yesterday's blowout. Borowski came on to pitch the ninth and did not fare well. I suppose there are two schools of thought here: 1.) he has to get work somewhere or 2.) why the heck are wasting him in that spot. I would fall into group number 2 especially since Veres looked good, but I can understand number 1. Wellemeyer who was brought up specificially for long relief only went 1 1/3 innings. I wish he would have been more effective thus saving the pen, but I wish for a lot of things.

The Cubs stand one game under the .500 mark and 5.5 games behind division leading Houston as the Astros come into Wrigley this afternoon. The phrase "must-win series" is vastly overused over the course of a baseball season, but this certainly qualifies. If they were to get swept they would be looking up the chute at a 8.5 game deficit. On the other hand, sweeping them out of town puts the baby bears right back in contention. Carlos starts this afternoon with Estes and whomever is replacing Prior (possibly Cruz) finishing out the series. Not the best match ups on paper, but the games are played on grass.

The Amazing Race

Long time since I have discussed the race. The main reason is that the teams this season are boring. True, they fight and carryon like other teams but there is a certain charisma that is lacking. Last night the virgins were eliminated because they could not read a map. I always feel bad when a team gets ousted because someone simply screwed up. I suppose that is equivalent to losing a one run game in the ninth on an error. Regardless, there are only 4 teams left: the married gay couple, the engaged straight couple, the clowns (no really, they are clowns), and the best friends. Chip and Reichen (the married gay couple) took a strong lead last evening. Speaking of, I wonder if Reichen is a family name like maybe he is Reichen II. If so, would his son be the Third Reichen? Maybe not.

Other Random Thoughts

• VH1 is counting down their 200 greatest pop culture icons this week. I have been watching them inbetween baseball games and other television and have found it to be pretty interesting. Number one will be revealed this evening. I have been taping all of them because I am a sucker for list shows.
  
• I always thought the Sara Lee slogan was "Nobody does it like Sara Lee", but I recently saw a commercial with the slogan printed at the bottom and it is "Nobody doesn't like Sara Lee". I like mine better.
  
• Last but not least, I found out 2 weekends ago that I am about to be an uncle for the fifth time. My previous 4 nephews are from my brothers and sisters, but this one will be from the other side of the family. Kara's (my wife) brother will have the first grandchild on that side of the family; well he won't be having the child his wife will, duh. To say my in-laws are excited to be grandparents would be an understatement on the level of saying Shawn Estes has not pitched well this season. The Northside Lounge extends congratulations and best wishes to the parents to be.
  

posted by Dennis at 8:01 AM : |

 

PTBNL may be better than we thought

A report in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette indicates that the PTBNL in the Lofton/Ramirez trade will be the Pirates choice from Bobby Hill, Steve Smyth, and Francis Beltran. If true, this would change my opinion of the deal dramatically. What looked like a risk-free move suddenly looks like a lot more of a win-now gamble. Given the team's current roster and place in the standings, win-now gambles don't seem too likely to pay off. Mark me down as "slight thumbs down" instead of "strong thumbs up" if this report turns out to be true.
posted by Scott at 8:41 AM : |

 

Ramirez and Lofton arrive, improved offense misplaced en route

The New Cubs made Randy Wolf look like Cy Young as Kenny and Aramis combined to go 0-8 with an error. Matt Clement was all over the place early but managed to squeeze out a quality start. As much as I like the trade, it still comes with over half the season already in the bank and the Cubs looking at a 4.5 game deficit in the division. Its way too early to be talking about must-wins, but the prognosis is not looking good if we can't put together a win streak at some point.

I am not in the mood for a lengthy update, so let me skim through my two favorite non-Cubs related topics. Lance Armstrong and Jan Ullrich finished together in the pack as Tyler Hamilton, broken collarbone and all, blew away the field to take the stage all by his lonesome. The injury- which surely would have felled nearly any other human being on the planet- at the very least cost Tyler his shot at winning the whole thing, so its nice to see Lance's fellow teammate take stage glory. Two more flat stages for the sprinters before Lance and Ullrich go head to head in the final time trial to settle things once and for all.

On the soccer front, the US came one minute away from defeating Brazil in Miami tonight before the samba squad tied it at the end of regulation and won it on a sudden-death penalty kick. Carlos Bocanegra buried a marvelous header to give the US the lead midway through the second half, but with several US players seemingly playing hurt the defense just couldn't hold out long enough. Kasey Keller played out of his mind, showing that he wants that starting keeper's job back no matter how much pub Tim Howard and Brad Friedel get.

Finally, we welcome Cubs Pundit to the Cubs blogging party. I can't wait till some other team's bloggers try to start a feud with us, because I am pretty sure we've got them all outnumbered. Dennis may seem like an old softy who sits on the couch watching reality television all the time, but if you push him too far he'll bust out the kung fu. Al Yellon strikes me as a sturdy, no-nonsense type, so we'll let him kneel down behind the other team's bloggers, have Christian and Brian Carstens distract them with discussions of roster manipulations, and finally have Wilkinson push them over. I'll assign Derek to rubber-band shooting, because really, what crack fighting team doesn't have a rubber band shooter? Our Austrian adventurer Chris is in charge of missions to foreign lands in case someone starts an Expos blog, and that guy at Weeghman Park gets a cushy desk job as a reward for calling Farnsie "Sir Tightpants." Ken has the perimeter of Wrigley Field covered so he can be our Homeland Security man. If worst comes to worst Steffens can just sue them all to death.

posted by Scott at 11:36 PM : |

 

Mitre loses in debut, but help is on the way

Walking out of Turner Field tonight I was feeling a bit down. Fortunately, my Pirates friend Robert had left me a message. I called him as I walked to the car, and once he woke up (he is a family man now you see), he asked "did you hear about the trade?" Now I can't explain this, but I immediately started thinking "we got Giles, we got Giles, oh boy we got Giles!" He broke it to me that it was just Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton, so then I didn't know how to feel until I got home to see what we gave up.

The pricetag is as follows: Ramirez, Lofton, and a small amount of cash for Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback, and a PTBNL. Bruback is a 24 year old 6'-7" right hander who had a 3.96 ERA in 19 starts for Iowa this year. Sickels likes his arm, but last year was his only really good year as far as numbers go. Sickels gave him a C+ last year, and I see no reason in his numbers this year to upgrade that. When I analyzed Lofton and Ramirez a couple weeks ago, I said they would both be substantial upgrades and worth getting if we could get them at a reasonable price. Unless the PTBNL is someone substantially better than Bruback, I think this looks like a very reasonable price. Time to get these guys in the lineup and start pecking away at the Astros and Cardinals!

The Mitre clan in full voice- Photo courtesy of me

Anyway, tonight's game wasn't much fun. I have a soft spot for guys making their major league debuts. Its the culmination of every boy's dream and perhaps the beginning of a legendary career. I was even more emotionally invested in Sergio Mitre's debut tonight since I watched the game from behind homeplate with his mom, dad, two sisters, and some miscellaneous family members I never really identified. They were great fun to be around and really giving their all for Sergio. I wish I could say the same for the Cubs defense. Tom Goodwin and Trenidad Hubbard (who stepped in when Goodwin pulled a hammy) each misjudged easy flyballs to center that turned into doubles, and when Garcia induced groundballs (his specialty), nearly every one rolled between two immobile Cub infielders.

At any rate, at least Sergio managed a base hit on the very first pitch he ever saw in the majors, and off future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux no less. The bullpen was strong again, as Guthrie, Alfonseca, and Remlinger combined for 4.1 scoreless and Remlinger managed to strikeout five in two innings. Plus, we may well have seen Lenny Harris's last start for a long time. All in all, today could have been worse. We'll be home tomorrow as Matt Clement faces Randy Wolf and the Lofton/Ramirez era begins.

posted by Scott at 12:11 AM : |

 

Just a routine 15 run outing

We are through the looking glass here, people.

In the least Cubs-like Cubs game of the year, our guys whomped the Braves 15-6. A few parts were predictable- Sammy went yard, Shawn Estes imploded, and JoBo pitched a perfect ninth to nail down the win. Beyond that though, chaos reigned. Consider:

• SAFE!

  The Cubs got a big early lead, blew that lead, then fought back to not only retake the lead but actually blow the other team out
• Tom Goodwin delivered five hits. Five!
• Lenny Harris walked.
• When the Braves loaded the bases with nobody out and threatened to finish the Cubs off early, Dusty pushed the right button. Dave Veres came in and struck out Marcus Giles, got Sheffield to pop up to short, and got Chipper Jones to ground out to first to get out of it unscathed.
• Antonio Alfonseca pitched two innings and allowed nada. When Gonzalez Bucknered an easy grounder, Alfonseca just calmly turned around and got the next guy like there was nothing to it.
• In one sequence, Lenny Harris doubled, stole third on the front end of a double steal, then tagged and scored on a sac fly. Lenny F. Harris! I mean for crying out loud, he's the slowest Lenny since Of Mice and Men!

At any rate, I can't explain what happened tonight but I was sure glad to be there to see it. There wasn't much in the way of entertaining off the field anecdotes to share. Sammy did maul one in BP that landed in the last row of the left field bleachers, kicked forty feet straight up in the air where it landed and stuck on a support beam. There was nearly a riot as people collected under the beam hoping the ball would fall. Tommorrow I'll be in the fourteenth row, one section to the third base side of home plate, so look for the tall guy in the Choi jersey. Although Sergio Mitre's strikeout rates have been low, Sickels doesn't totally hate him so perhaps he'll put a good start together. If not, maybe we can score 15 more runs.

A quick note on the Tour de France- Lance kicked ass. At the moment when all the momentum had turned against him, Lance dug deep and came out like a champion, destroying Jan Ullrich on the final climb of the final mountain stage and opening up a 1"07 lead. Credit Ullrich too- Lance crashed just before making his glorious charge, but Ullrich showed a great deal of class by allowing Lance to remount his bike without pulling away. Of course, he was only returning the favor as Lance had showed him the same courtesy when Ullrich fell two years ago. Anyway, the race is not yet over, but Lance is now back in command. Here's to our man in yellow, Lance Armstrong.

posted by Scott at 12:43 AM : |

 

Cubs take game 16-2, series 2-1

The Cubs finally broke out some lumber, and naturally it was Carlos Zambrano that was the offensive ringleader. Phlorida phenom Dontrelle Willis was the victim of the explosion, getting chased in the third. Zambrano was three for four on the day, or in other words had three times as many hits as Lenny Harris in Lenny's best game of the year. Carlos also pitched well, allowing just one run in six and a third. Sammy also crushed an upper deck homer, forcing the first ever mid-game NOTD update (it was the third stadium he owns the longest homer for this year).

Shawn Estes will face Shane Reynolds tomorrow night in Atlanta. Constant checking of the UPS tracking page indicates my road Hee Sop Choi jersey should be arriving courtesy of Wrigleyville Sports just in time for the game, so if you are going to be there look for me. My reward for suffering through an ugly Estes/Reynolds matchup was supposed to be Prior/Maddux on Tuesday, but now Mark Prior has been scratched due to lingering effects of the collision with Marcus Giles. Better to get him healthy than risk anything, but you've still got to fear for the Cubs chances if he misses any significant amount of time.

Effectively wild?

The Cubs have a rotten offense and a great pitching staff. That's the conventional wisdom, and its generally pretty accurate. Of the thirty teams in baseball, we are scoring the 25th most runs per inning with 0.488, and we are allowing the 9th fewest runs per inning with 0.489. Then again, ninth out of thirty doesn't sound that overwhelming after all. If you are counting on your pitching to carry you to becoming one of eight playoff teams, you probably ought to be better than ninth best at it.

Cubs Pitching
Category	Number	Rank
HR/IP	0.103	7th
K/IP	0.956	1st
BB/IP	0.483	27th

Accepting the DIPS conclusion that homers, strikeouts, and walks (I'll include HBP here) are the things that pitchers have the most control over, let's take a look at how the Cubs pitching staff is doing. As you probably know this is a dominating strikeout staff, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning as a team. They are doing a good if not great job at keeping the ball in the park, allowing less than a homer per 9 IP. But then we come to the walks- sad but true, the Cubs are fourth worst control staff in baseball.

Perhaps its just me, but this information came as a bit of a shock. If there is one thing I have retained faith in as I watched LFH flail away, its that at least we could rely on our pitchers. I mean, sure we have our Esteses and our Alfonsecas, but surely Prior, Wood, JoBo, et al make up for them, right?

Name	Control
Veres	188
Borowski	150
Prior	129
Clement	100
Alfonseca	93
Farsworth	90
Guthrie	86
Zambrano	79
Wellemeyer	78
Estes	76
Wood	76
Benes	57
Cruz	56
Remlinger	55
Norton	46

Here are the Cubs pitchers BB and HPB allowed compared to the major league averages for pitchers. A number over 100 represents better control than the major league average. The first thing I notice is that only three of the fifteen pitchers the Cubs have used this year are better than the major league average. Prior and Borowski have been strong across the board all year, and control is no exception. Clement is about average and even the much-maligned Alfonseca is within shouting distance too, but what of the rest of the staff? Control has been the chink in Wood's armor. Estes has been just as bad as Wood (without all those nifty strikeouts to balance it out.) Remlinger's control has been nonexistent. Even reasonably effective guys like Guthrie, (my contract obligates me to use this nickname) Dr. Tightpants, and Zambrano have had shaky control.

I don't know if the Cubs' rampant control problems are symptoms of a flaw in Larry Rothschild's approach, products of some other unknown cause, or simply coincidental. I do know that the wildness is the difference between the Cubs being a slightly above average pitching team and being as dominant as the Dodgers. Considering our offensive struggles, our pitchers will have to start finding the plate if they are going to lead us to a division title.

Anyway, I'll be back tomorrow with an in-person report from Turner Field. Maybe I can even cajole Dennis into writing something for all you Goodieheads out there. Don't forget to check out Lance Armstrong in the morning too; he stayed even with Ullrich today and in the overall standings, but the third place rider made up ground on both of them. Ullrich is likely going to beat Lance in the remaining time trial, so Lance has to find a way to build a cushion before they leave the mountains. Kick some butt, Lance.

posted by Scott at 6:05 PM : |