Cubs pick up Barrett from A's

The boys in blue made a small move this afternoon trading for 27 year old Michael Barrett from the A's only a day after they got him from the Expos. On the surface this looks lke a worthless move and I am sure some will complain that the media monolith that is the Tribine would have been better served to spend some money and get IRod. But, this is not too bad - in fact it is the ultimate buy low move in hopes of catching a hot streak

Barrett has had two seasons (1999 and 2002 where he posted near league average OPSs and remember he is at his peak age. Injuries slowed him down last season although hs was hot in the second half (371/608/978 before his season ended due to the DL). Ron Shandler in his Baseball Forecaster (the best fantasy book on the market in my opinion) forecasts a 327/451/778 season for Barrett. Not a world beating season, but Bako projects to a 308/332/641 and Miller comes in at 322/399/721.

Plus Barrett is younger and has yet to have a breakout season. This is a nice change for the Cubs. Instead of getting someone 32 and hoping they hit like they did when they were 27, they just went out and got out the 27 year old for virtually nothing. If they continue to make low risk, high reward types of moves, I will be happy.

posted by Dennis at 8:08 PM : |

 

Rivals making moves

Since my last post, the Astros have used the money they saved by exporting Billy Wagner to sign Andy Pettitte to a three year deal. Pettitte has been a consistently good if somewhat overrated pitcher throughout his career. His numbers won't be helped by pitching in the erstwhile Enron Field, but he is coming off the best K rate of his career and won't have the ham-handed Yankee defense behind him any longer either. All in all, you figure he is good for 200 IP of baseball with an ERA in the mid to high threes- not necessarily worth $10.5M, but certainly a boon to the Astros chances.

Also on the Astros front, Roger Clemens has been shamelessly teasing the possibility of an unretirement. I suppose he found that eight weeks away from the game was just too much to stand. Either that or he couldn't live without the media fawning over him. At any rate, if he did return I'd expect him to be a fairly useful pitcher for them, so let's hope he takes his schtick and retires for good.

Today the news out of the winter meetings is that the Cards have sent Eli Marerro and J. D. Drew to Atlanta for Ray King, Jason Marquis, and a minor league pitcher. Despite Drew's injury problems, his stick makes him the best player in the deal. Marquis and King are guys who have worn out their welcome here in Atlanta, at least from the fans' perspective. Marquis is a young righty who has been pretty mediocre in parts of four big league seasons. He's never struck out many people and doesn't strike me as a great breakout candidate. King has been a solid reliever for four years running, but some untimely meltdowns in 2003 reduced him to a punchline at Turner Field. He'll certainly be an upgrade over Jeff Fassero as a lefty in the Genius's pen.

The Cardinals needed some pitching depth and this deal certainly helps them there. Personally, I wouldn't give up on a talent like Drew without getting a potential blue-chipper in return, but I can see where they were coming from. Still, this deal can be viewed as a bandage job on the pitching staff and not a big upgrade.

A quick note on college hoops

If you get a chance to watch my alma mater on TV, take it. Paul Hewitt's Yellow Jackets are ranked tenth in the nation and will likely be moving up again when the new poll comes out Monday. Despite having only one awkward Australian checking in at over 6'6", Hewitt's team has managed to run some very good teams right out of the gym. Every time they play you will get to see them play at a frantic pace and usually get two or three Human Highlight Film-esque dunks out of Isma'il Muhammad. Good times will be had by all.
posted by Scott at 3:48 PM : |

 

Cubs sign some mediocrities; let others go

Jim Hendry retained the services of Mark Grudzielanek and Tom Goodwin for the upcoming year. I haven't seen a pricetag for Goodwin but Grudz will make between $2.5M and $3M on a one year deal. Grudz was very good in 2003, but he will be 34 next year and the only other good year of his career was in 1999. I like to fill holes with players who are either very cheap or very likely to be good, and Grudz is neither. I'll reserve judgment on Goodwin until I hear the dollar figure, but for a low price he can certainly be a useful guy to have around. The guys eligible for arbitration who weren't offered it are Alfonseca, Estes, Guthrie, Veres, Glanville, Lofton, O'Leary, Womack, and Karros. I don't see anyone there that would have been worth the money to us, but each had at least one shining moment for us last year so I'll respectfully tip my cap as they go.

College Chaos

How hysterical is it that the BCS has produced a "national championship game" that doesn't involve the #1 team in the country? NCAA Division I college football features 117 teams which for various reasons play only a small fraction of their competitors and even then only on a regionalized basis. Many years, this one included, the regular season comes to a close with several teams playing a reasonably difficult schedule and having lost the same number of games. Choosing between three teams like USC, LSU, and Oklahoma- teams that have never played each other and have only one common opponent between any two of them- in a just manner is impossible.

What irks me even more than the lunacy of the current system for choosing a champ is the fact that I am convinced there is no reason it has to be this way. An eight team tournament to decide college football's title would put seven games on someone's television schedule, each of which would draw huge interest and ratings, culminating in a title game that would be bigger than today's BCS title game and could grow to be the second biggest event on the annual TV schedule. Its amazing to me that they can look this cash cow in the mouth and turn it down.

posted by Scott at 9:56 PM : |

 

I almost missed this

The Cubs hired or I suppose promoted Chuck Wasserstrom to be team's baseball information manager. Thanks to the Cub Reporter for pointing this out on his well written blog.

Now, I have no idea what jobs will be entailed in that incredibly generic title, but I am happy that the Cubs are one of the teams that thought enough to create this position. GM Jim Hendry mentioned in the article that this position is not akin to Bill James' position with the Red Sox. I am guessing the main concern will be putting together similar players to help with arbitration proceedings.

Granted that is a small step and probably one that could have been done long ago, but imagine if Wasserstrom's staff grows and they begin to tackle more complex issues. A good first analysis would be to show the chances that a 35 year old second basemen with a declining OBP over the last three seasons will have a good season. Off the top of my head I would think not so good.

I will not be conceited enough to think that the Cubs actually read my little corner of the world wide web, but if they do, hey, I am available to be Wasserstrom's second hand man. I have a Master's degree in statistics. You had better sign me long term before I become arbitration eligible. I might even know of a person with an engineering degree that would be willing to help.

Ok, I am out of my begging mode. I am interested to see where this leads in the future. Hopefully to better Cub teams on the field.

One more random thought

I love the fact that blogger has added a spell checker to its posting screen. The funny thing is that it flags the word blog (and blogger) as being misspelled. Anyone else find that funny?
posted by Dennis at 12:14 PM : |

 

Its the Silly Season

That's what they call summer in the news business. Its the time of the year when there's not enough real news so everyone chases silly stories. With no baseball games being played, this is our equivalent so let's go full bore. What I am trying to say is, its time for the Greg Maddux back to the Cubs story!

For twelve or so years Maddux was one of the best two or three pitchers in baseball, but those days are gone. His strikeout rate has fallen, he gives up many more homers than he did in his prime, and he rarely pitches past the fifth or sixth inning in part due to increasingly chronic back pain. All that, and yet... I'd take him as a fifth starter. Wouldn't you?

posted by Scott at 3:37 PM : |

 

Cubs sign Hawkins

Jim Hendry has signed LaTroy Hawkins for three years at an average annual value of $3.67M. Reports vary on whether the third year is guaranteed or a team option. I've commented at length on Hawkins the last couple days. I've got my doubts about Hawkins' ability to maintain the level he pitched at the last two years, but there is no denying he will make our pen deeper and more reliable. We also got him for less than he was asking ($5M per). It looks to me like when the Yankees bailed on him, Hendry was able to grab him at a more reasonable rate. All things considered, I am not unhappy with this pickup. Call me Mr. Optimism!

As Ruz points out, there will be an inevitable push from Baker and certain members of the media to have the Experienced Closer take over for Joe Borowski. Joe, having posted an ERA of 2.68 over the last two years and converting 33 of 37 save chances as closer, is of course unable to handle the role. I just hope that no matter what amateur head games Dusty puts them through, they both pitch well in whatever role they find themselves.

posted by Scott at 11:37 PM : |

 

Withdrawal and Addiction

It has been a long time since I have rocked and rolled on this Blog. I won't bore anyone with a list of snappy excuses because if I really wanted to come and post I would have done it regardless. I guess it just took me a little longer than normal to get over this season. Don't get me wrong - I enjoyed the 2003 season more than any season since I have been a Cub fan (since about 1985), I am proud of the season and will remember A-Gonz's walk off homers, Cardinal comebacks and nasty Prior curveball more than Steve Bartman and Josh Beckett. I just wish that five more outs would have come so all that stupid talk of goats and day baseball could have been put to rest.

I usually watch the World Series with great interest and engage in debates over the post season awards but this season I didn't really do either. I could not figure out why. Was I depressed or pissed about being tortured by fate again? I thought about this for awhile and came to the conclusion that I was just flat out exhausted. The Cubs took every ounce of energy from me this season and it took some time to recover. That time meant a period of time away from the blog. Sorry.

My birthday was last Sunday and a gift from my Aunt started to get the baseball juices flowing again. She was in Chicago and bought me a Chicago Tribune produced retrospective on the season past. Looking through the book made me realize how much I love the sport and what a great season it was. The Cubs were five outs away from going to the series one season removed from a horrible year. The best part is that this is not lightning in a bottle either. The core is there and with some tinkering this can be a good team for years to come.

The trade

I have not weighed in with an opinion on the Choi for Lee deal yet. I will give it a thumbs in the middle with a slight leaning upwards. I have my reservations about dealing a hitter who crushed the ball in the minors. I have always contended that hitters will always hit no matter where they wind up. I don't believe in the notion of a AAAA hitter - I believe more in the youngster that is given 15 ABs to "prove" himself and then dumped. Given that, Lee is a pretty consistent player with a good bat, a good glove and he is on the right side of 30. Although Choi might be good or even great in the future, we got a player who can be counted on to produce this season.

The Cubs are blessed with a great farm system at the moment. Farm systems can be used in two ways. They can be used like Oakland to find cheap, productive talent who constantly fill holes left by free agent departures. Find players dumped off by other organizations near peak ages who can compete for a season and yet keep the bottom line in tow. The other system would be to hype the crap out of prospects, trade them for players who can help at the trade deadline or for players who are to become free agents at the end of the system. Lets call this the Yankee system. I personally like the Oakland system better, but lets not forget one thing - the Cubs are not the As. Fans have screamed for years that the Tribsters should open up the pocket book and field a good team. If they are smart enough to recognize the more helpful players I am not against them using their farm system as bodies for trade bait.

The Central in '04

Granted there is a lot of time before pitchers and catchers head to warmer climates and toss the horsehide around, but Cubs' fans have to be happy with the way the Central looks right now. The Astros decided not to spend money on a top notch closer and then re-upped Ausmus and Vizcaino. The Cardinals let Tino Martinez go to the Devil Rays while taking on a large chunk of his salary. I am upset that they lost an out through their lineup but it is nice for a team that has financial constraints to owe money on a player they cannot use. The Brewers sent their only consistent power threat to Arizona in exchange for a slew of players including Craig Council whose batting stance looks like my dog when she is dry heaving. The Pirates have done nothing but traded their best players away at the end of last season and the Reds are still hoping to get Rose into the Hall of Fame.

While all this is going on, the Cubs have gained a first basemen who is a good player, are in the mix for one of the better relievers in the game, and have kept all their pitching in place. Add a few more pieces and they might run away with the Central. Of course, I won't get too cocky yet.

Addiction

Now it is time to come clean on the real reason for the lack of posts. I bought a GameCube and NCAA Football 2004. Man oh man is this one addicting game. Thy have a dynasty mode where you can play a season with a team and then follow them into the offseason, recruit new players and play again the next season. If you succeed, you will be asked to move to different schools, get contract extensions at the present school or possibly even get your mid major team into a BCS conference. I started playing with my alma mater and won a championship in 2 seasons. I moved the game difficulty up a notch and won another won 4 seasons later. Being bored at Tennessee, I quit and took the Central Michigan job for the hell of it. I am currently in season 2 doing really well. I hope to get an invite into the Big 10 soon. I highly recommend this game for any football fans out there.

I might be back tomorrow with a 24 update and some thoughts on other television shows.

posted by Dennis at 1:57 PM : |

 

74 Shopping Days Till Pitchers & Catchers

First off, Luis Castillo will stay with the Marlins. The deal is three years for $16M, with a fourth year option that becomes guaranteed if Castillo plays most or all of next season. It seems as though we put in a reasonable bid but didn't want to overpay for Castillo and I am fine with that. The only problem is we are still looking at Miller, Grudz, Gonzalez up the middle and that's a recipe for another season of 1-0 losses.

On the bullpen front, the Sun-Times risked their credibility today by once again printing another Mike Kiley column, but since there's not much news I'll pretend to take it seriously. He reports that Hendry is still working on LaTroy Hawkins and is also pursuing Gabe White, Ricardo Rincon, and Braden Looper. Let's look at some numbers for this quartet of relievers.

Name	T	Age	01	02	03	K/9
LaTroy Hawkins	R	31	76	208	248	7.5
Braden Looper	R	29	119	127	109	6.2
Ricardo Rincon	L	34	160	109	131	7.6
Gabe White	L	32	83	148	107	6.2

The table includes each pitcher's ERA+ (where 115 represents a park-adjusted ERA 15% better than average) for the last three seasons as well as their average K/9IP over those three years. Obviously Hawkins' fat numbers the last two years stand out. Each of the other three has been respectable, with Rincon standing out as a bit better than the other two. None of these guys are young, but none are particularly old either and age is less of a problem for pitchers than hitters.

Disregarding salary, I'd probably rank these guys Hawkins, Rincon, Looper, White. White's low K rate and middling performance scare me, and I expect Looper (because of his stuff and his age) and Hawkins (because of those gaudy ERAs) to command more money than they are worth, so I'll root for Rincon to ply his trade at Wrigley next year. Acquiring him would have the added benefit of giving Dusty a lefty who actually gets lefties out so he won't have to throw righty-killer Remlinger out there against them.

Of course, things may not be the way Kiley portrays them. The New York Times reports that after signing Flash Gordon the Yankees are after White, Felix Heredia, and Paul Quantril. They do not mention Hawkins, and in fact I can't find a mention of Hawkins in the Times since they mentioned him as an alternative to Gordon two weeks ago. If Kiley's got his facts wrong (perish the thought), we may be signing Hawkins any day now due to lack of Yankee interest.

posted by Scott at 8:56 AM : |

 

First base settled, second next?

The current Cubs buzz is that Jim Hendry has thrown a wrench into Florida's efforts to resign Luis Castillo. As discussed elsewhere, the Sun-Sentinel in Miami is reporting that the Cubs joined Florida and the Mets in the bidding with a "very competitive" offer. The Trib says the Cubs are denying having made an offer, but where there is smoke there is something worth writing about so here goes.

Castillo has a lot in common with new Cub Derrek Lee. In 2003 Lee had the sixth best EqA of any first baseman in baseball while Castillo's EqA was eighth best among second baseman. In 2002 they were both tenth at their respective positions. Both are fairly fast for their positions, and both are fairly well regarded defensively. Both will turn 29 next year, Lee on September 6 and Castillo six days later. Lee has been a smidge more consistent and a bit better with the stick relative to his position, so he is probably the more valuable of the two.

Judging from the reports, if we do sign Castillo it will be for maybe 10 or 15 percent less than Lee will cost. Signing Castillo would also cost a first round draft pick, while signing Lee cost Choi and a PTBNL. I think the money for each player is fair. I think Choi and the PTBNL are worth more than our 2004 first round pick and I also think Grudzialanek needs replacing for '04 more than Choi did, so I think signing Castillo would be a better move than trading for Lee was. Of course, I thought trading for Lee was a blunder.

My overriding philosophy when it comes to roster construction is that you should do anything you can to get a few elite players and then spend money judiciously to fill in the gaps with cheap role players. As we stand, Mark Prior is our only elite player. Kerry Wood is close and possibly getting better, while Sammy Sosa is close but probably getting worse. I think the best use of the Tribune's money would be in pursuit of a player who is at or near that elite level- someone like Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Tejeda, or (if we had a position for him) Vladimir Guerrero. There's not necessarily anything wrong with spreading money around to fill holes with B level players like Lee and Castillo, but it doesn't leave you with much flexibility to add new pieces or cope with an unexpected decline in one of those guys skills.

In summary, while Castillo isn't the move I would try to make, its not a bad move and its a significantly better move than trading for Lee. I can say with some certainty that it would make our team better over each of the next three or four years, and that's nothing to turn your nose up at.

Bucks for the Bullpen

"Excellent." -- C. Montgomery Steinbrenner

The Trib article referenced above also talks about the Cubs desire to place LaTroy Hawkins in Wrigley Field. Hawkins has come into his own the last two years after indifferent results in his first seven years in Minnesota. He's posted ERAs of 2.13 and 1.86 the last two years, and after mediocre strikeout numbers in the past has begun to whiff some hitters (7.1 and 8.7 K/9IP the last two years after a career 5.1 K/9 through 2001).

While he is no sure thing, he certainly seems likely to provide some good innings out of the pen if the Cubs were to acquire him. One problem- the Trib says Hawkins is looking for $15M over three years. Paying that kind of money for even a dominant reliever would be risky; shelling it out for a guy with a couple of good years and only fair peripherals would be like Russian Roulette. Let's hope Crazy George saves us from ourselves.

There goes the neighborhood

Finally I'd like to welcome a new recruit to the Cub Blog Army: Alex Cieply of ball talk. I'd also like to welcome the until recently AWOL Forklift Cubs Blog. Both have been active the last few weeks, so pop over and see what they have to say. Also, don't forget to write the commisioner in support of my plan to allow the team with the most bloggers a bye into the World Series next year. If we can get him to agree, I like our chances...
posted by Scott at 10:07 PM : |

 

I still don't like it

Both on my mailing list and from people like Ruz at the Cub Reporter, I am reading the argument that Choi for Lee is a good deal if you take in to account the fact that Dusty wasn't going to give Choi a chance anyway. I guess I can see the logic there, and its not like we haven't seen that argument back when Hendry dumped Bellhorn. Ultimately though, the argument holds no water with me. Taken to its logical extreme, it would indicate that trading Babe Ruth for Mike Mordecai was a good move if you had a manager that refused to play Ruth.

Many analyses also seem to ignore the fact that we are trading several years of Choi for one year of Lee. A few mention that we should sign him to a long-term deal, but that is a separate issue. Choi is only netting us one year of Lee; future years could have been acquired on the free agency market without giving up players. Again, Lee is a good player and probably an upgrade for 2004. I just don't see any way that one year of Lee is worth $6M and a PTBNL and several years of Choi.

The Cub Blog Army is continuing to weigh in, as well as the "experts" in the Chicago media. Here is a roundup:

• Let's Play Two (marginal thumbs down)
• The Cub Reporter (thumbs up)
• Clark & Addison Chronicle (thumbs up)
• Cub Fan Nation (thumbs up)
• and another thing! (thumbs in the middle)
• Cubs Transaction Report (Siskel up, Ebert down)
• The View From the Bleachers (thumbs up)
• Mike Kiley (thumbs up his...)
• Jay Mariotti (thumbs up)

I guess the best argument I can make against the trade is that Mariotti and Kiley are united in favor of it. Let's hope time proves me wrong.
posted by Scott at 8:22 AM : |

 

Cubs swap Choi and minor leaguer for Derrek Lee

Chris Yarborough called and woke me up a few minutes ago to tell me that the Cubs have sent Choi and a PTBNL to Florida for Derek Lee. Lee is a decent ballplayer. He turned twenty-eight in September and posted his third OPS in the high .800s in four years. Like Choi, he runs well and has a good glove. He is durable (his 155 games played last year was his lowest since 1999) and probably has several good years left. That's the good news.

Now here's the bad news. First, Lee is right-handed. This gives the Cubs righties starting at seven of eight field positions and that's assuming Patterson is able to come back in center. Second, Lee made $4.25M last year, will likely get a raise for 2004 in arbitration, and will be a free agent after next season. In making this deal, the Cubs have swapped three or four years of a cheap Hee Sop Choi for one year of a moderately expensive Derek Lee.

For 2004, I think this deal is likely to be a small boon to the Cubs. We give up a guy whose 90th percentile performance for '04 was a line of something like .275/.410/.525 and whose 10th percentile was maybe .210/.340/.400, and replace him with a reliable .270/.370/.485. We take on $4-5M, but hey, its not my money. The real problem with the deal is that the Marlins have a cheap Hee Sop Choi for 2005, 2006, etc, while the Cubs have absolutely nothing to show for it after next season. This is a deal that at best will be a small gain for the Cubs, and at worst could be a Lou Brockian disaster.

I don't think my negative reaction is solely a product of the fact that I bought a Choi jersey earlier this year, but just in case I'll be back later tonight or tomorrow with some more fleshed out thoughts on the deal. In the meantime, check out Let's Play Two (marginal thumbs down) and The Cub Reporter (thumbs up), each of whom already have comments up.

posted by Scott at 7:22 PM : |

 

MLS Cup 2003, and a New Hope

The San Jose Earthquakes upset the regular season champion Chicago Fire 4-2 to take the MLS Cup yesterday afternoon. San Jose's Landon Donovan was the MVP, coolly finishing two chances and generally looking dangerous all game long. Chicago was viewed as a fairly heavy favorite coming in, and I felt they controlled most of the game, but they let a number of chances slip through their fingers while San Jose converted the majority of theirs. Chicago's Ante Razov hit the top left corner of the frame with one shot, whiffed on two he could have tapped in on the goal line, and had a penalty kick saved. Damani Ralph, Chicago's rookie of the year forward, looked explosive on a number of occasions but couldn't find the goal mouth either.

I don't really have an MLS team of my own (just waiting for them to put one in Atlanta), so I mostly watch MLS to root for our US national team players. This game featured two of the best in Donovan and DeMarcus Beasley (who scored Chicago's first goal with a rocket over the keeper's shoulder.) As youth players they teamed up to lead the US to a fourth place finish in the U-17 World Cup. Despite not making the final, they impressed observers so much that Donovan was awarded the Golden Ball as best player in the tournament while Beasley received the Silver Ball as the second best. They shined again in last year's World Cup, as Beasley started three games while Donovan started all five and scored twice. I am partial to Beasley since he wore #17 at the World Cup and also because I tend to like underdogs and Donovan seems to have outshined him by just a bit so far in their careers. Still, both will be playing together with the national team for years to come and I can't wait to see it.

Of course, the championship game of the domestic soccer league was the sidebar to the real US Soccer news as Freddy Adu signed with MLS. If you own a TV, you probably saw him as he bounced from Letterman to MTV to CNN last week. Heck, even Grandma (89 this month) saw him on Letterman and told me how impressed she was with his demeanor. Its a huge deal for MLS, as it gives them several years of perhaps the greatest American soccer player we'll ever produce before he (if he lives up to his potential) inevitably moves to Europe.

So for those of you who don't follow soccer, here's the scoop on Freddy. First, some still question whether he is really 14. I guess with the Danny Almonte fiasco in recent memory its understandable to wonder. What we know for sure is that his birth certificate from Ghana says he is 14. If it isn't true, then someone would have had to file false information on that certificate with nothing apparent to gain from it. I guess anything is possible, but with no clear motive for fraud I tend to believe he is 14.

Second, you should know that his talent is most assuredly real. Rumors of his genius bounced around the message boards for the last few years, but we finally got to see him against some real competition in qualifiers for the U-17 World Cup and then the in the U-17 WC itself. Its rare that someone that hyped lives up to it, but he did and then some. He ripped shots into the netting from all angles and slalomed through entire defenses ny himself on at least two goals I saw with my own eyes. He had a hat trick in his first game in the U-17 WC and was easily the most talked about scoring threat in the tournament.

Finally, you should know what his future holds. Of course, its way too early to answer that. I see Freddy as a pair of aces in a game of Texas Hold 'Em. You aren't guaranteed to win the hand, but there is no better place to be after two cards than looking at pocket rockets. Maybe he'll lose his speed as his body matures. Maybe the pressure will be too great and he'll flame out. Maybe he'll tear up a knee and never play again. But the upside is the American Pele, and I'll be more than happy to be along for that ride.

posted by Scott at 11:46 PM : |

 

Back in the saddle

Like General MacArthur before me, I have returned. My computer gave up the ghost about three weeks ago, and I was without a computer at home until my new machine arrived Thursday. Its amazing how hard it is to live without the internet considering its only been around in anything like its current form for ten years or so. At any rate, I am back to blogging, IMing, and playing NHL 2004, Korsun Pocket, and the copy of FIFA 2004 I just bought. I think that should keep me occupied until at least spring training.

In my absence, the world rudely kept spinning on its axis. Baseball handed out its awards, and for once they managed to get most of them right. I don't think the voters are any more competent than they have been in the past, but for various reasons they managed to blunder into some defensible choices this year.

• NL MVP- Barry Bonds While I think Bonds was the right choice, I am a bit surprised by his margin of victory over Albert Pujols. Bonds had a handy edge in rate stats (58 points of EqA, 90 points of OBP, and 82 points of SLG), but missed a lot of time for an MVP. He had just 550 PAs, 147 less than his career high and 135 less than Pujols. The more sophisticated value metrics generally give Barry the edge, and thats how I subjectively see it as well. The only edge Barry had on Pujols from an average sportswriter point of view was the division title the Giants won, and I guess that was enough to convince most of them to vote his way.




• AL MVP- Alex Rodriguez A long overdue MVP for the man who should probably have three or four by now. He seemed to get the same share of the vote he usually gets, but there was no player who met the usual criteria to gather the votes of the hardheaded majority of voters Of his major competitors. Without a 2002 Tejada or 1996 Juan Gonzalez to rally their troops around, they split their votes among such curiosities as David Ortiz (a DH with 509 PAs and a lesser OBP and SLG than ARod) and Shannon Stewart (spare me). Kudos to ARod, and there is even a small opportunity to have him in Cub blue next year lets move heaven and earth to do it.




• NL Cy Young- Eric Gagne Like Bonds in the MVP debate, Gagne owned the rate stats but didn't spend as much time on the field as other contenders. However, while Bonds had about 80% of Pujols' playing time, Gagne pitched just 82.1 innings or less than 40% of the innings thrown by Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt. I figured Schmidt and Prior would split the starter vote and open the door for Gagne, but as it turned out he waltzed to the win. He was dominant, so I can sort of accept it, but he'd have to be nearly perfect to overcome a 130 IP deficit.




• AL Cy Young- Roy Halladay Yet another quantity versus quality argument, as Pedro Martinez managed an ERA a full run lower than Halladay's but in only 186.2 innings compared to Halladay's mammoth 266.0 IP (the highest AL total since Clemens in 1991). Its a very close call that boils down to where you set replacement level for the extra eighty innings, but I think I would have gone with Halladay.




• NL Rookie of the Year- Dontrelle Willis This was the only truly awful decision by the voters. Brandon Webb had an ERA a half point lower in twenty more innings in a tougher park with more strikeouts, a higher strikeout rate, and one less homer allowed. Its an inexcusably lazy decision from an electorate that clearly decided their vote when they saw Dontrelle's funky fresh pitching motion on Sportscenter in May. I'd be outraged if we weren't talking about the same organization that gave a Gold Glove to a DH a few years ago.

Apparently the end of this post got eaten somewhere along the line, so here's the new ending.

posted by Scott at 1:46 PM : |