The Eve of Battle

Here we are, just nine hours to gametime. Between some utterly incomprehensible strain gauge data at my job and the impending clash at Turner Field, I am a nervous wreck. You can look around and find oodles of playoff predictions, but in such a short series I don't think it is possible to predict the outcome with a high degree of accuracy. Like everyone, I do have a gut feeling about it though, so that's what I'll share with you.

We were 19-1 when allowing one run, 22-6 when allowing two, and 13-10 when allowing three this year. With the starters we have lined up, I think we are very likely to get three and probably four pitching performances in the zero to two runs allowed range. The key is to convert those into wins. That requires the bullpen (hopefully Farnsworth, Remlinger, and Borowski only) to perform, and it requires the offense to put at least a few runs on the board. If we give away a game where we get an 8 IP, 1 R start, I think we'll lose the series. Otherwise, we have a great shot.

Tailgate Party Update

I still don't have much of an idea how many people to expect, but it looks like we'll have at least five or six and building to 15 or so by time to head into the stadium. Dress a bit warm if you come, because we are getting our first cold snap of the year (in the 50's tonight). I am looking forward to it. Go Cubs!
posted by Scott at 10:57 AM : |

 

NLDS Roster Prediction

Can someone explain to me where they get the acronym NLDS? I mean, NLCS stands for National League Championship Series, which makes sense since it is a series to determine the champion of the National League. By analogy, you might think the NLDSs determines the champion of the National Leauge, um, divisions. Of course, that's not the case at all. The NLDSs determine the champions of nothing and in fact are nothing more than glorified play-in tournaments for the NLCS.

You know, from the stupidly named NLDS to that hairpiece, I think I may hate every single thing Bud Selig has brought to this earth. Oh well, on with the predictions:

Pitching
The scheduled starters for the Cubs are Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, and Matt Clement. Joe Borowski, Kyle Farnsworth, and Mike Remlinger are locks out of the pen. Antonio Alfonseca (5.83 ERA for the year, 8.68 in September, 10.54 since Aug 23) is probably a lock too, sad to say. Judging from Dusty's usage patterns, Guthrie and Veres will likely take two more slots. That's four starters and six relievers, which most likely leaves one long relief slot to be contested by Shawn Estes and Juan Cruz. With Estes pitching better in the last two weeks than Cruz, I think we can be sure that Estes will get the nod.

Catching
Some teams (like Bobby Cox in many past seasons) like to take three catchers to the playoffs, despite the tendency it has to limit your options. As best I can tell Dusty didn't do that last year, so let's figure Damian Miller and Paul Bako will be the only two behind the plate.

Infield
The locks are Eric Karros, Randall Simon, Mark Grudzielanek, Alex Gonzalez, and Aramis Ramirez. Ramon Martinez gives a lot of flexibility and may even be in line for a start at some point, so count him in. Dusty took seven infielders with the Giants last year and Tony Womack had far more September AB's than any other infielder so I have to assume he will be the last infielder.

Outfield
We've got five slots left for outfielders. Sosa, Alou, and Lofton are locks. Tom Goodwin has been the fourth outfielder of choice, and Doug Glanville is the right-handed outfielder off the bench (at least he will be if he hits like he did foue years ago in his only good season).

Summary
So there we have it. As the roster is constructed, there really aren't a lot of alternatives so I'll go out on a limb and guess this is the exact roster Dusty will go with. If it were me, I would have been using Choi for the last two months and he would most likely be on the list in place of Simon. I would take Cruz instead of Estes, and one of the rookies in place of Alfonseca, probably Wellemeyer. Still, given the options, I don't have a huge beef with any of these guys.

posted by Scott at 8:33 PM : |

 

Division Champs

Its the morning after, and I have finally begun to catch my breath. Heading into yesterday, we seemed likely to limp into the playoffs if we made it all. Much like '98, we would have headed to Atlanta with a tired pitching staff and likely would have been easy pickings for the Braves. Instead, thanks to the heroics of Clement, Prior, and our man Wes Obermueller, we will be going with Kerry Wood in game one and everyone will have two full days of rest. The Braves have a good pitching staff and a deadly offense, but with a lineup of Wood, Zambrano, Prior, Clement, and Wood again I think we have a good shot at every game in the series.

Either Dennis or I will be back tomorrow with some analysis on the series with the Braves. In the meantime, I strongly encourage you to hit all the other Cub blogs out there if you haven't already. I find it compounds my joy to read everyone else expressing theirs.

Tailgate Party Tueday in Atlanta

The mlb.com playoff schedule says we will play Tuesday at 8, Wednesday at 7, and Sunday if necessary at a time TBD. Right now I intend to tailgate before all three games, but I will definitely be out there Tuesday no later than five. I would love to meet as many Cub fans as possible, so if you will be in Atlanta, look for me. I will be in a green pickup truck and wearing a road Hee Sop Choi jersey. Chris Yarbrough of the Yarbage Cub Review is bringing a bunch of folks from Tuscalossa, and I hope that some of the rest of you can join us as well. I haven't ever tailgated at Turner Field, but I am told that the best place is next to a walkway that runs NW/SE in the parking lot just north of the stadium. If you look at this photograph, its the light brown walkway running diagonally NW/SE between Turner Field to the south and the painted footprint of the former Atlanta Fulton County Stadium to the north. If I can find anything more specific about where tailgating is allowed, I'll post it here. If you e-mail me, I will give you my cell phone number if you want to try to find me that way. Tickets are available, so ditch your job for a day or two and come on down! I may have a couple extra tickets with our group in the upper deck, so if you want to sit with us let me know about that too.
posted by Scott at 12:38 PM : |

 

AC005895

I am writing this early so if we do clinch tonight I can post it and then run around in front of my apartment screaming my head off. Just a fabulous day to be alive.

I am buying a group of tickets tonight for all three games in Atlanta. I'll be hosting a tailgate party before Game One and possibly before the others although I can't promise anything there yet. If you can make it to Atlanta (tix are available), let me know you are coming and I will buy more food, Cokes, and beer for you. I'll post more when I calm down enough to sit in front of the computer.

CUBS WIN!!!!!
posted by Scott at 7:19 PM : |

 

Rain halts Cubs, Sexson halts Astros

Mother Nature did the Cubs no favors Friday but Richie Sexson made sure to pick up the slack. Sexson, long-time scourge of Cubs pitching, turned his wrath on the Astros bullpen today launching two homers in a 12-5 win. He was aided in his quest by a series of lousy pitchers and fielding miscues from Houston. The loss gives the Cubs a half game edge heading into tomorrow's DH and gives them a chance to clinch the division with a DH sweep and another Houston loss.

According to the Trib, Mark Prior will face Josh Fogg in the first game tomorrow, to be immediately followed by Clement (13-12, 4.22) and Vogelsong (2-1, 4.79) in game two. In Texas, Wes Obermueller (1-5, 5.46) will meet Ron Villone (6-5, 3.92). By 7pm tomorrow, we could be anywhere from needing help to make it to a one-game playoff to being division champs. Here's to the latter.

A Personal Note

If you haven't heard, Mark Grace announced his retirement today. Mark has been my favorite player since I bought his rookie card at a yard sale for 25 cents before he had ever played a big league game. The position had opened up the previous year when Jody Davis stiffed me for an autograph, and the "Rated Rookie" played my position and that was good enough for me. I think it was a good choice. He not only gave me great moments to remember for a lifetime, but just about every time I heard him speak he gave me a new reason to root him on.

Anyway, you've been there for over half my life Mark, and in all that time you never let me down. Thanks.

posted by Scott at 1:56 AM : |

 

Bitter pill

Well, if it was too easy it wouldn't be any fun, right? The Cubs suffered a 9-7 defeat and unless the Astros blow a late lead will fall into a tie for first with three games to play. Carlos Zambrano had his second consecutive sub-par start, walking five batters and allowing five runs in just five innings. He wasn't helped by Guthrie or Veres, each of whom just added fuel to the Reds fire. The lone bright spot was Sammy Sosa, who finally broke out with two homers but it sadly wasn't enough.

Carlos went nine innings and threw 129 pitches (his high pitch count of the year) on September 14th. Five days later, he allowed 9 runs in 4.2 IP. Today, another ugly start. Has Dusty's predeliction for high pitch counts caught up with the youngest member of the team? Honestly, there is no way to know. Maybe its just chance that Carlos has had two of his worst starts of the year since the 129 pitch outing. Maybe it was a result of nagging injuries not related to pitch counts. I suppose we will never know. The one sure way to know would have been to keep him out of that situation in the first place.

Tomorrow afternoon its Josh Fogg (10-8, 5.23) and Mark Prior (17-6, 2.42). When that one ends, its the lousy Wayne Franklin (10-13, 5.34) against the lousy Jeriome Robertson (15-8, 5.00). On paper, its our best chance to pick up a game between now and the end of the season.

Dennis will be back in the morning with the post mortem on a tough loss. I don't know how you feel right now, but I'm doing my best to keep my head up. We are tied with three games to play. We've got every opportunity to win this thing, and if I didn't quit when we were 5.5 back a couple months ago I am not throwing in the towel now. Go get us a win, Mark. We need it.

posted by Scott at 11:01 PM : |

 

Estes for Cy Young!

Two very resistable offenses met two very moveable starting pitchers in Cincinnati tonight. Fortunately for all of our mental states, it was the Cubs who won the battle on both sides. Shawn Estes was right at home facing the AAA Reds lineup, allowing just four hits and two walks in a complete game shutout. The offense took advantage of two Cincinnati errors and scored four unearned runs off starter and loser Josh Hall. Sammy cracked his 37th homer and drew his second walk in the last fourteen days.

The 8-0 rout came in response to Houston's nailbiting win over San Fran, 2-1 earlier today. Despite starting the scrub lineup, the Giants nearly gave us a huge gift as Sidney Ponson took a 1-0 lead into the seventh before that darned Jose Vizcaino drove in two for the win. Net result for the day is no change in the standings and one less game to play, and on a day when Estes starts that sounds plenty good to me.

Carlos Zambrano (13-10, 2.97) will go for the sweep against none other than Todd Van Poppel (2-1, 5.53) tomorrow night. Van Poppel pitched brilliantly against the contending Phillies last week, so he may not be the pushover Hall was tonight. Doug Davis (7-7, 4.01) will face Tim Redding (9-14, 3.74) in Houston. Davis has actually been quite good since coming over from Toronto, posting a 2.33 ERA over seven starts.

Dennis will return in the morning with another report from Cincinnati's Wrigley South. Just four more games...

posted by Scott at 10:34 PM : |

 

Cubs alone in first

Kerry Wood. What can you say about a guy like Kerry Wood? True, he lost the no-hitter in the seventh, but other than that he did all right tonight. He ran his scoreless inning streak to 17 over three starts, and dropped his ERA since August 27th to 1.04. Meanwhile, our friends from the Left Coast unleashed a ten-run second inning to smack Wade Miller and the Astros back to the stone age 10-3. That's three straight days on the calendar where every Astro and Cub game has broken the right way for us, propelling the Cubs from 1.5 back to one up with five to play.

Tomorrow Houston sends Roy Oswalt (9-5, 3.09) to stop the bleeding, but the Giants counter with late season acquisition Sidney Ponson (17-11, 3.79). In Cincinnati, Shawn Estes (7-11, you don't want to know) will face Josh Hall (0-1, 6.14). Hall has been hammered in every single major league appearance he has ever made unless you count the seven shutout innings he threw at us last week. We all feel the same way about Estes, but he has had ten quality starts this year. If he has one more left somewhere in that arm, there's no time like the present to bust it out.

Dennis, who was in attendance at New Riverfront tonight, will be posting in the morning to relate what its like watching the Cubs surrounded by Cubs fans in a visiting park. For now, I am off to bed with visions of first place dancing in my head.

posted by Scott at 11:48 PM : |

 

All square!

I was settling in for a long night with the Astros and Giants tied 3-3 in the ninth and one of baseball's most dominant pitchers in for Houston, but a funny thing happened on the way to extra innings- namely, Pedro Feliz. The minor league veteran took Billy Wagner out the opposite way, and Ray Durham added another one three pitches later. Tim Worrell closed it out and the Cubs found themselves in first place with just six games to play.

Tomorrow its a battle of aces in Houston as Jason Schmidt (16-5, 2.33) faces Wade Miller (14-12, 3.97). Schmidt pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, but he's been nearly as good on the road (2.24 to 2.43 ERA) so I see no reason to worry. Also tomorrow, Scott Randall (2-3, 6.75) will be making his first career start against Kerry Wood (13-11, 3.31) tomorrow. Randall faces the Cubs in relief on 9/12 and 9/13, and gave up four hits, three walks, and three runs while recording just three outs. Hopefully that bodes well...

posted by Scott at 11:39 PM : |

 

Week of September 15 in review

Cubs 5-2, (31 runs for, 31 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Mark Prior, 3 R and 27 K in 16.1 IP
Hitter of the Week: Aramis Ramirez, .429 OBP and .917 SLG
The Week Ahead: at Cincinnati for 3, vs Pittsburgh for 3

Astros 3-3 (39 runs for, 21 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Roy Oswalt, 7 IP, 1 R
Hitter of the Week: Richard Hidalgo, .467 OBP and .885 SLG
The Week Ahead: vs San Francisco for 3, vs Milwaukee for 4

Cardinals 5-2 (46 runs for, 28 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Woody Williams, 7 IP and 0 R
Hitter of the Week: Albert Pujols, .613 OBP and .792 SLG
The Week Ahead: Does it matter?
posted by Scott at 11:22 AM : |

 

Sunday = Funday

Twice the closer put two on with one out in the ninth, twice he got the ground ball twin killing, and twice Cubs fans celebrated. In Pittsburgh it was Joe Borowski coaxing a 6-4-3 to finish a 4-1 win over the Pirates. An hour later in St. Louis it was Jason Isringhausen getting Jeff Kent to hit into the 5-4-3 to wrap up a 6-4 win. The end result, Houston's lead is once again down to a half game and hope is once again on the rise on the Northside.

I paid $150 or so for the Extra Innings package on digital cable this year. (Sattelite isn't an option due to lack of a southwesterly view.) Today, with eight days left in the season, there were four meaningful games in the National League, and EI provided me with coverage of none of them. It made for a nervewracking afternoon of getting text play-by-play from Cubs fans on the internet. I had the good fortune of being in a chat room with a guy named Dan who had the Cardinals game on local TV, as well as with Dennis who was giving updates from the Reds broadcast on The Big One, WLW 700 in Cincinnati. I'd be more upset if we hadn't gotten ideal outcomes from all four games, but goodness I don't want to have to go through that again.

It seems like half our wins this year have followed the script of "great pitching from the starter and great hitting from one position player," and that's what we had again today. Mark Prior was dominant, striking out 14 and not allowing a run until he ran out of gas in the eighth. Dusty ran him up to 131 pitches, and if he God forbid comes out with nothing in the tank later this week it will be awfully hard to stick to my no pitch-count-whining pledge. Aramis Ramirez was the man with the bat, hitting two homers as well as driving in Grudzie with an infield single.

Tomorrow the stress meter drops a bit as the Cubs and Phillies have the day off leaving just two games for us to follow from our cubicles. Here in Atlanta, Mike Hampton (14-7, 3.64) will face Florida's Mark Redman (13-9, 3.70). In Houston, its rookie Jerome Williams (7-4, 3.30) against Ron Villone (6-5, 3.99). Another perfect day like today would put us a single game out of the wildcard and all square with the Astros.

One last note to the Cardinals: You did what I asked. Thanks. Now I hope jet engines crush each of you in your respective beds tonight. (See, that is a Donnie Darko reference.)

posted by Scott at 8:00 PM : |

 

Missed opportunities

Albert Pujols hit a very un-Morris like 13th inning home run to open the door for the Cubs, but Matt Clement went wild in the fourth and the Cubs offense could never close the gap. The net result leaves the Cubs right where they were going into the day but with one fewer game remaining to play.

The primary reason we lost the game was Clement's loss of control, but the fact remains that more often than not you need to score more than two runs to win. Sammy's woeful September continued with four strikeouts in four appearances. We also gave away two runners on the base paths as we have been prone to do all year. I don't really expect any better out of Wendell, but we have to have Sammy hot and right now it isn't happening. Ah well, at least Hee Sop got an AB. Its too bad it was his only his fourth of the month and first in ten days.

Today is a game you figure you can't afford to lose, as Mark Prior goes for the next-to-last time this regular season. His opponent will be Oliver Perez (4-9, 5.40), the southpaw acquired from San Diego in the Brian Giles trade. Perez has been hit hard by lefties and righties alike. We aren't going to have a more favorable pitching matchup the rest of the way, so let's please not let this one get away. Sterling Hitchcock (4-4, 4.77) hosts Jeriome Robertson (15-7, 4.85) in St. Louis.

posted by Scott at 9:31 AM : |

 

Cubs split, Astros roll

It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times. The Cubs somehow won a bizzare 10-9 game in the opener today. Jason Bay struck for ten total bases and eight RBIs in his 21st major league game and the Cubs had only two players with two hits and none with more than two, but somehow they found a way.

By the time the second game had begun, Matt Morris had done what he could to achieve what he earlier in the week said he wanted to see by giving Houston a big early lead before walking to the showers. Sadly, as much as I wanted to see Juan Cruz in place of Shawn Estes, he looked kind of like Estes today as he gave up six runs and didn't retire a batter in the fifth. By the end of the evening, Houston had won and the Cubs had lost and the deficit was back to a game and a half.

There is nothing we can do about Houston, so our guys have just got to focus on what they can control. Tomorrow walking wounded Matt Clement will face youngster Ryan Vogelsong making just his sixth career start. I've got nothing to say other than we need to win the game. Oh, and I hope the feds find Matt Morris' kiddie porn collection tonight.

posted by Scott at 12:42 AM : |

 

An Open Letter to the St. Louis National League Baseball Club

Dear Cardinals,

As I write, you find yourselves five and a half games out of first place in the NL Central. Not so long ago you were the favorites to win this division, but losing 11 of 17 in September has sent you spiraling right out of the race.

So, having self-destructed in the clutch, you may be thinking its time to mail it in. You could be considering putting the old Clydesdales in cruise control, coasting through these last eight games, and heading off to a long winter vacation. You could, but I am going to ask you not to. You see, this weekend you will play host to the Houston Astros, a team that currently leads the Cubs in the Central by a single game. The Cubs need your help, and you have an obligation- nay, a sacred duty to help us out.

"But wait," you might say, "we've already proven we can't beat anybody when the pressure is on. We had eight games against the Cubs and Astros this month and we lost seven of them!" Its true, you have pulled a massive choke job, but I am here to give you some words of encouragement.

First, look at your manager. Tony LaRussa might be the most courageous man in baseball. Who else has the guts to sport a worse looking mullet than Randy Johnson and do it for twenty some-odd years? And how about deciding to build his bullpen AND his starting rotation around Jeff Fassero? With moves like that, I can't believe George Will is still the only one to have any respect for the guy.

Then there's your fabled offense. Of course, the leader is Albert Pujols since he has the most seniority. A close second when it comes to veteran leadership is Tino Martinez. Sure he doesn't hit anymore, but $7.5M for a Yankee reject is a bargain in anybody's book. Scott Rolen is pretty good, and back problems are hardly ever chronic so you should be set at third base for years to come. And lest I forget, there's the great Jim Edmonds. I need you to ignore what's right in front of your face and take Jim's word for this- that is eye black, not eye shadow. I don't care what it looks like.

Finally, if all else fails you can fall back on your great young pitching staff. Look at Matt Morris- if that hairball under his lip doesn't say cool then I don't know what does. As soon as he hits puberty he might be able to give Matt Clement a run for his money. As for the rest, I'll admit I haven't followed the Cardinals that closely, but if Rick Ankiel is anything like he was last time I saw him, you guys are in great shape.

Looking back over this, I realize it may not have been quite as inspiring as I had hoped. In fact, it may have just reminded you of some of the things that lead you to your embarrassing tank job of the last three weeks. All right then, new plan: Forget you are managed by Tony LaRussa, forget that you've choked the division away, forget everything I said up to now. Just remember this- somehow, someway, you've got to beat the Astros. A sweep would be great, but you absolutely must find a way to take two out of three. That's all I ask.

Go Cardinals!

Your Loyal Fan,

Scott Lange
Northside Lounge
posted by Scott at 8:55 PM : |

 

Pennant race update

Viva La Rockies! Finally somebody found a way to stop the Astros, as Todd Helton and Charles Johnson each homered and Darren Oliver threw 5.2 innings in Coors without allowing an earned run. I nearly had a heart attack in the ninth when Johnson juggled and dropped a foul tip that would have ended the game, but Orlando Merced eventually struck out and the lead was officially just a half game.

In other news, old friend Brooks Kieschnick highlighted a three-run ninth inning comeback with a two-run homer off Jason Isringhausen to pace the Brewers to a 7-6 win over St. Louis tonight. Come to think of it though, Cardinals news doesn't really qualify as a pennant race news so let's just move on.

We are off tomorrow, but Colorado's Jose Jimenez (2-8, 5.22) will have a chance to drop the Astros into a dead heat if he can beat Wade Miller (13-12, 4.12). Miller coughed up five earnies in 3.1 innings in his previous start against Colorado this year, so here's to more of the same. Pour it on Rockies!

posted by Scott at 12:24 AM : |

 

Kerry slashes Houston lead to a single game

Kerry Wood has come alive just in time. Today was a complete game shutout as he struck out eleven from an overmatched Met lineup. Doug Glanville (seriously) and Aramis supplied the solo homers for the 2-0 margin of victory. Since his August 27th start at Busch Stadium, Kerry has a 1.00 ERA with 46 Ks in 36 innnings. I am so happy with the result today that I am going to keep my pitch count fears to myself.

Let's go Rockies!

Aramis takes Leiter deep.

posted by Scott at 4:57 PM : |

 

Cubs eke out another win but Houston keeps pace

Mark Prior struck out thirteen in 8.2 innings and won his 16th game of the year as the Cubs topped the Mets 3-2 at Wrigley tonight. Mark Grudzielanek was 3-3 with a double and Sammy Sosa homered to pace the Cubs offense. I flipped channels between pitches (nervous habit) in the ninth, and came back to see the ball sailing into the bleachers for three-run homer for the Mets. Cut to a shot of a shellshocked woman in the crowd, and I knew I had lost any reason to live. Then I realized it was a replay from Cedeno's homer earlier in the game. Just one of life's funny little jokes on my heart I guess.

Houston destroyed Colorado 13-2 (as I type) behind three (as I type) homers from Richard Hidalgo. Hidalgo, who was absolutely horrible as long as he was on my simulation league roster, now has an OPS up near a 1.000. Just another of life's funny jokes, I suppose. Gosh but life can be funny sometimes.

Tomorrow afternoon its Al Leiter (14-8, 4.26) against Kerry Wood (12-11, 3.46). Leiter has been very good in the second half (2.39 ERA after the all-star break) but did get hammered by the Expos last time out. In Denver Ron Villone (6-4, 3.69) will face Darren Oliver (11-11, 5.01). Oliver has been pretty respectable pitching in Coors all year, allowing just a 4.68 ERA at home. May the pitching gods smile on Kerry and Darren. Go Cubs!

posted by Scott at 11:20 PM : |

 

Gritty, gutsy, Matt Clement

Knowing a Shawn Estes start was the alternative, Matt Clement pitched through the pain and produced seven innings of three hit, two walk, no earned run baseball last night. Remlinger and JoBo combined to close it out and the Cubs had a 4-1 win and closed to 1.5 back of Houston. Moises Alou was 3-4 with a double, and Paul Bako added two extra base hits for the cause.

The only down note to speak of was the fact that Sammy remains cold, going 0-4 with a couple of strikeouts. I am not dumping on him, for there are minor streaks and slumps in anyone's season, but the fact is he's got to get hot for the team to win the division. Oh, and I suppose the Cardinals winning 11-2 over the Brewers is a down note, but only if you consider the Deadbirds to actually still be in contention.

Tonight Mark Prior (15-6, 2.48) will face New York's Jae Wong Seo (8-11, 4.05) while Houston's Jeriome Robertson (14-7, 4.95) meets Chin-hui Tsao (2-2, 6.40) in Coors Field. Seo was strong early in the year, weakened in July and August, but has come on for two strong starts so far in September. He is a righty with a fairly large reverse platoon split, allowing an .811 OPS to righties and only .672 to lefties. Colorado is 18 games over .500 at home, so a win by Prior could well put us just a half game back.

posted by Scott at 7:45 AM : |

 

Week of September 8 in review

Cubs 3-3, (26 runs for, 27 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Carlos Zambrano, 3 R in 16 IP
Hitter of the Week: Moises Alou, .480 OBP and .636 SLG
The Week Ahead: vs NY Mets for 3, at Pittsburgh for 3

Astros 6-1 (41 runs for, 22 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Billy Wagner, 5 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 R
Hitter of the Week: Richard Hidalgo, .500 OBP and .792 SLG
The Week Ahead: at Colorado for 3, at St. Louis for 3

Quitters 1-5 (26 runs for, 39 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Brett Tomko, 9 IP and 2 ER
Hitter of the Week: Albert Pujols, .391 OBP and 0.773 SLG
The Week Ahead: vs Milwaukee for 3, vs Houston for 3

posted by Scott at 7:20 AM : |

 

Umpire finds a way to beat Zambrano, believe it or not

Home plate umpire Steve Rippley left the game after the eighth inning today, delaying the game thirteen minutes and long enough to coax Carlos Zambrano to allow his first walk of the game and only his fourth wild pitch of the year. Together, it was enough to push the Reds to a 1-0 win and send the Cubs to two games back of first.

I hate to turn to blaming the umpire, but it was awfully difficult to see Rippley stay in the game for three innings but decide he just couldn't take it anymore when Z was ready to take the mound for the ninth. If I saw correctly, he even waited through the break after the eighth to leave, thus lengthening the delay by another 3-5 minutes.

Of course, there is a bit of blame to go around on the Cubs side too. For one, Dusty saw Carlos' sudden wildness after the delay and knew he had thrown 120 pitches. He could have gone to the pen, but elected not to. For another, the team failed to score a single run off a mediocre AA pitcher. For third, Dusty used Tony Womack (.249 OBP against righties) and Eric Karros .284 OBP against righties) as pinch-hitters against right-hander Chris Reitsma. Reitsma (who allows an OPS over 200 points higher to lefties) mowed down the both of them. I just don't have the words to describe what a horrible pair of moves that is. Its days like these when I find it hard to see how all the leadership and people skills in the universe can make up for utter tactical incompetence.

Another point of concern is Sammy's weak bat of late. This is a team with several poor hitters, a few marginal ones, and one very good one. As constructed, we rely extremely heavily on that one big hitter to get on base, drive people in, and make the offense go. Over the last two weeks he has hit .236/300/.436. That fits right in with the rest of our chump hitters, but we have to have more from him if we are going pull this division out.

We'll send an injured Matt Clement or a lousy Shawn Estes out to face the Mets tomorrow, while Houston has no opposition for the fourth consecutive day (the difference of course being they are actually scheduled to be off tomorrow). Dusty doesn't have a lot of good options for a starter tomorrow, but I fear we can count on him to find the worst available choice. Whoever goes will face New York rookie Jeremy Griffiths (1-2, 6.82). Like today's opposing starter, Griffiths was recently called up (7-6, 2.74 at AAA Norfolk), and like today's opposing starter he has to be considered likely to shut us out.

For crying out loud, let's get some runs!

posted by Scott at 5:46 PM : |

 

Deja vu as Cubs blow lead before coming back to win

The Cubs once again blew a large early lead before rallying to plate the winning run in the bottom of the seventh. Juan Cruz had his first poor start since escaping pergatory, although it seemed to my biased eye that he was done in by a lot of dinks, dunks, and bloops. Alfonseca got the win for the second consecutive day, but at least this time he got it without giving up two runs in his only inning.

I promised to go over the impact of the Pittsburgh Boyz on our Cubs, so here goes:

Name- Team	PA	OBP	SLG
Aramis Ramirez- Pirates	415	.330	.448
Aramis Ramirez- Cubs	201	.303	.445
Kenny Lofton- Pirates	374	.333	.437
Kenny Lofton- Cubs	191	.371	.476
Randall Simon- Cubs	321	.305	.417
Randall Simon- Cubs	72	.333	.551
Tony Womack- Rockies/DBacks	310	.252	.305
Tony Womack- Cubs	42	.310	.390

The first thing to notice is the sample sizes. Lofton and Ramirez have each gotten around 200 which is probably enough to start making some judgements, but for Simon and Womack we can mostly only say how they have done and not what it really means for their performance the rest of the way.

The subject of the controversial NOTD was Aramis Ramirez, and apparently all the attention prompted him to at least get that OBP up over .300. His walk rate is nearly identical to what it was with Pittsburgh, but he has about 40 points less batting average and about 40 points more isolated slugging. In essence, we're getting about what Pittsburgh got, but no return to the 2001 form we might have hoped for.

Lofton's walk rate and ISO are pretty much unchanged, but Kenny's batting average is actually up about 40 points from what it was with the Pirates.

Randall Simon has been the best surprise of the quartet so far. His walk rate is also the same, but his batting average is up 30 points and his ISO is up about 100. As the only left-handed bat (other than Bako) Dusty will trust enough to start, we are relying heavily on Simon to keep his hot bat going.

Finally we have Tony Womack who I throw in with the Steel Town Mafia since he played there not so long ago. Although he has been mediocre, he has at least stepped up his game from the horrendous level it was at earlier in the year. I don't care for him as a starter, but he hasn't really hurt us so far and that's a welcome surprise to me.

So all in all, we have gotten a bit better performance from these four guys than we might otherwise have expected. That really means we should be prepared for them to come back toward the norm a bit, but there is always room for Destiny to step in and nudge them to a big final few weeks of the season.

As I write, Houston is leading St. Louis 1-0 in the fifth. Assuming it holds up we will remain a game back as we go for the sweep tomorrow. We'll send Carlos Zambrano (13-9, 2.86) to the mound to face Cincinnati rookie Josh Hall (0-0, 9.00) who will be appearing in only his fourth major league game. Hall is a young righty with nothing remarkable contained in the splits from his brief career to date. He hasn't pitched horribly but has been victimized by a lot of hits falling in in his two starts and one relief appearance to date. He was 8-10 with a 3.47 ERA for AA Chattanooga this year.

posted by Scott at 9:09 PM : |

 

Cubs escape with win, Houston answers at Enron

Tom Goodwin waited out a rain delay and then pinch-hit more than a few Cub fans off the proverbial (or literal?) ledge this afternoon. Kerry Wood allowed just a single run in six innings, but had a high pitch count, was all over the place, and was by all accounts visibly tiring so Dusty wisely went to the bullpen. Well, I thought it was wise, but Guthrie and Alfonseca hooked up to allow five runs in the seventh, and by the time the rain clouds interceeded a dazed Cub team found itself trailing 6-5. An hour later play resumed, and Tom "Dennis" Goodwin singled home Simon (who reached on a two-out walk to start the rally) and Ramirez for the win.

Our friends in Texas obliterated the Deadbirds with nineteen hits and fourteen runs. As much as I hate them, it would be nice if St. Louis would at least put up a fight and take a game or two in this series. Tomorrow the two teams will arguably both throw their aces as Matt Morris (10-6, 3.58) faces Roy Oswalt (7-5, 3.42). At Wrigley it will be John Bale (1-2, 4.24) against either Cruz or Estes. Yahoo lists Estes, but ESPN lists Cruz and every rumor I have heard indicates Cruz, but I won't feel safe until he actually takes the mound.

Dennis got an email about the NOTD yesterday (noting Aramis' sub-.300 OBP and comparing him to one LFH) which rightly argued that comparing Aramis to Lenny isn't exactly fair since Aramis has ten homers with the Cubs and that's ten times as many as Lenny had. Dennis was mad at me for getting him in trouble (this NOTD like most was my doing), so let me explain myself. The purpose of the NOTD is just to throw some tidbit out there that you may not have been aware of, and since I was surprised to see how low Aramis' OBP is I thought it might be informative for some of you too. I certainly agree that Ramirez is a huge improvement over Harris, but the NOTD just isn't the place for a substantive analysis. Perhaps I can do a bit better breakdown over the weekend...

posted by Scott at 3:51 AM : |

 

NL Central contenders have too many white players

Despite facing a troika of at-or-below-.500 teams, the Cubs, Astros, and Cardinals all wilted in the afternoon sun today. Our loss was particularly frustrating since we were starting (arguably) the best pitcher in the league, not to mention that we were down just two with the bases loaded and none out in the ninth knowing St. Louis and Houston had already fallen but couldn't pull it out. Prior struck out eight in 5.2 IP and kept the ball in the park, but three walks and ten hits were enough to put three on the board and win the game for Los Expos.

This weekend begins a run of sixteen games against the Pirates (13 games under .500), Reds (20 under), and Mets (21 under) . On paper these are some awfully favorable matchups, but its up to the Cubs to go out and win those games the only place they count, in reality. Tomorrow we kick things off with Kerry Wood (12-11, 3.52) against Cincinnati's Seth Etherton (2-3, 5.67). In his five starts this year, Etherton's been pretty decent against righties (.759 OPS allowed), but has been absolutely torched by lefties (1.079 OPS allowed). This isn't much of a sample size, but his previous major league work back in 2000 reflected more of the same (.825 and .940 respectively). Its too bad we don't have any other real left-handed options, but Dusty needs to at least make sure to start a lefty at first tomorrow. (Yes, I know that means Simon, but I can dream can't I?)

Oh, and I apologize for the Dusty joke in the headline. Sometimes I can't help myself.

posted by Scott at 8:47 PM : |

 

Cubs give one away

Well, that was a lot of fun. Alex Gonzalez, Kenny Lofton, and Moises Alou allowed a harmless pop-up to become a game breaking double tonight and the Cub win streak ended at six. The game was a cacophony of mental collapses by the Cubs. From the five consecutive walks from Clement and Guthrie to the belly flop tag attempt by Randall Simon in the eighth, the Cubs didn't do much to show they deserved to win. Kudos to Dave Veres for pitching out of bases-loaded nobody out allowing only a run, and to Farnsworth for overcoming one braindead play by a teammate only to succumb to the second.

You know, we won the wildcard back when Brant Brown gave a game away, so I don't see any reason we can't just forget this game ever happened and get right back to work tomorrow. The rubber game will feature Mark Prior (15-5, 2.41) and Tomo Ohka (8-12, 4.71). Ohka has had a tough time in San Juan, surrendering seven homers in just 24.2 innings pitched (that's one every 3.5 innings as opposed to one every 9.6 innings elsewhere). He's got a pretty typical L/R split this year although in the past he's shown a bit of a reverse split.

posted by Scott at 10:19 PM : |

 

Cubs, Astros keep pace while Cardinal fade continues

With every day that goes by it increasingly looks like a two-horse race in the NL Central. The Cubs got yet another quality start from Carlos Zambrano en route to a 4-3 win in San Juan tonight. Moises returned the lineup and singled home the game-winning runs in the seventh. Sammy took a pitch off the helmet in the fourth, but after a brief delay stayed in the game and did not appear to be troubled by it the rest of the way. Matt Clement will face Dusty favorite Livan Hernandez tomorrow.

Milwaukee held leads on Houston in the third and the sixth but couldn't hold them, as Houston rallied to tie it in the 8th and win it in the ninth to keep pace with the Cubs. Ex-Cub Jose Vizcaino was the villain, popping a three-run pinch-hit homer over the fence in the right field corner. Luis Martinez will make his second major league start tomorrow for the Brewers, with Jeriome Robertson scheduled to go for the 'Stros.

The Cardinals collapse continues unabated as they were bombed by the Rockies 8-1 at Busch tonight. Hopefully they will continue to slide until they hit 0.0 on the prediction graph and we can just forget about that red line the rest of the way.

I wish I had been able to get some more posts up this weekend, but Manhattan was just a little too tempting. I love my hometown, but New York City has got an energy and prestige I just haven't seen anywhere else. Besides, by being at Shea last night I got to see the third-baseman they claimed off waivers... "Harris" I think his name was. He pinch-hit with the bases loaded in a tie game and grounded into a DP on the first pitch, but still I think he is on the verge of putting it all together. At any rate, we should be back to a regular posting schedule the rest of the way.

posted by Scott at 11:28 PM : |

 

Week of September 1 in review

Cubs 7-1 (48 runs for, 25 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Joe Borowski, 4.1 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 R
Hitter of the Week: Moises Alou, .550 OBP and .708 SLG
The Week Ahead: at San Juan for 3, vs Cincinnati for 3

Astros 4-2 (36 runs for, 22 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Billy Wagner, 4 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 R
Hitter of the Week: Geoff Blum, .538 OBP and .692 SLG
The Week Ahead: at Milwaukee for 4, vs St. Louis for 3

Cardinals 3-5 (41 runs for, 36 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Matt Morris, 16 IP and 0 ER in two appearances
Hitter of the Week: Albert Pujols, .474 OBP and 0.552 SLG
The Week Ahead: vs Colorado for 3, at Houston for 3

posted by Scott at 11:02 PM : |

 

First place!

So we regain first place just when I am too disconnected to post. Hmm. On second thought, I choose to interpret it as "we begin our charge back into first place just when I show up at Wrigley." Anyway, I am naturally psyched to be in first but I have a train into Manhattan to catch so I can't write anything much about it. I'll be back in Atlanta tomorow night and I'll have a belated "Week in Review" segment (the chart looks pretty good this time) as well as some tidbits from my vacation I didn't get to share yet. Make sure to check out And Another Thing! this week since I am pretty sure Al is the only Cubs Blog Army member reporting from the front in San Juan.
posted by Scott at 9:26 AM : |

 

Broadcasting from high above Lake Michigan

No, wait, that was the best Cubs win I have ever been to.

I was never really in to today's game, at least not the way I was into the marathon yesterday. With the Cards jumping on Clement early and our offense not showing any signs of life despite the wind blowing straight out, my emotional involvement just wasn't there. It just didn't feel like a real game. It was just a warmup and the real game would start shortly and then the Cubs would be playing like the meant it.

Chilling with Al before the biggest win of the year.

Anyway, Sanchez gave up the grand slam. Al Yellon, eternal optimist, immediately announced that that hit had just "ended the season." His friend Jeff was a little more restrained, but did turn and ask me what happened to my crowing about my 3-0 lifetime undefeated record at Wrigley. Now I have been in their shoes many a time- rooting for the Cubs can leave you feeling a bit blue on occasion- but not today. I don't mean to brag, but I believe my exact response was "come on now, a couple of three-run homers and we're tied up" (I do love Weaverball).

Then the comeback started. Naturally I was happy to see the runs going on the board, but it still didn't feel right. I remained (relatively) subdued right up until Moises put us on top. Suddenly the Cubs were winning, all was right with the world, and all the bottled up emotion came spewing out everywhere. I was a screaming ball of nerves. I stood and rocked from side to side throughout the ninth, and boy howdy did JoeBo blow them away. When the showboatingest outfielder in the game waved at strike three, I was highfiving the drunks behind us, hugging strangers, and eventually proclaiming how I had never lost faith in my perfect record at Wrigley to anyone who would listen. Just a tremendous feeling.

Then, having three hours to make it from Wrigley to the hotel to Midway to catch my flight, I ran down the ramp and out onto Sheffield toward the El station. Like yesterday, I hollered and screamed as I went down the street, until eventually it dawned on me that unlike yesterday when I had stayed in the park for a while before spilling out on the streets, this time I was surrounded by 95% devastated Cardinal fans. Magnanimous in victory, I restricted myself to high-fiving the few wearing Cubs paraphanelia and grinning a lot. Oh, and I did make it to the hotel and carry my umbrella, laptop, backpack, and two suitcases all to Midway with a half hour to spare.

From the "Dusty is the Worst Tactical Manager I've Ever Seen" file, what on earth was he thinking when he pinch-hit Doug Glanville for Ramon Martinez today? He had Martinez against Fassero, and he chose to go to Glanville versus Springer instead. He manged to A) replace Martinez with an inferior hitter, B) lose the platoon advantage, and C) burn two players at once since Womack had to come in and play second base. Personally, I would have stayed with Martinez. If the Genius decided to stay with Fassero, you've got a tired, lousy pitcher who has been getting hit hard up against a hitter who is as good as anyone on your bench and who has the platoon advantage. If he goes to Springer, you can use the left-handed PH of your choice, or stay with Martinez if you prefer. Normally when Dusty does something crazy I can at least see where he is coming from even when I don't agree. This just boggled the mind though. It will be past midnight when I try to dial in from my grandmother's house on Long Island so I probably won't bother to investigate, but if anyone can explain that one I would love to hear it.

But you know, its probably bad form to complain after the last three days. A glorious shutout win from Prior Monday, a 15th inning walkoff blast from Sosa Tuesday, and the comeback of the year today, along with a Sox game last night that spared me having to see that minor league ump making a bush league call. Then, to top it all off, for the first time in my life someone said I had a southern accent! I've lived in Georgia all my life, but with Dad being from Chicago and Mom from New York my accent is generally pretty middle of the road. In line to board the plane though, a gentleman I was talking about the game with spontaneously asked "are you from Georgia?" Out of the clear blue sky! I am proud of my hometown and home state, and its good to know I at least have a smidge of home in my voice, at least when I am dead tired and drained from three glorious wins in three days.

Its on to Manhattan now for me, so I really won't be posting tomorrow. I am sure Dennis will have some thoughts after we move into first place tomorrow, so check back for that. A huge thank you to Al, Jeff, and the rest of Al's crew in the right field bleachers for making my trip to Chicago so memorable. Seeing those wins would have been great regardless, but seeing them with such wonderful baseball fans and interesting people made it truely special. Signing off from high above some other Lake or possibly just a very undeveloped part of New York State, this is your Exhausted, Exhilirated, Ecstatic Undefeated Wrigley Field Cubs Blogger. Cubs Win!

posted by Scott at 2:33 AM : |

 

Broadcasting from high atop the Magnificent Mile

Mixed results on my second day in Chicago. There's no need to go into any more details on the first game since I am sure you are all aware of what went down, and since I don't even know much of what happened in the second game I can't really comment on that either. I did get back to the hotel and catch some highlights on Sportscenter, so I will say we were robbed on the Alou call, but you probably already knew that.

Getting the Waveland Chronicles straight from the horse's mouth.

Anyway, the dissapointment of tonight's game notwithstanding, I still had a pretty good day. I got to Wrigley about 9:45, and walked around Waveland till I saw a guy that looked like he might be Ken, author of The Waveland Chronicles. I surreptitiously circled behind his car, and when I saw the BHAWK13 Illinios plate I knew I had the right guy. Ken was very friendly, and told me about his regular routine. He walked me (literally) down the route he took chasing Sosa's mammoth 536 foot shot earlier this season. He even gave me a souvenier ball he had nabbed on a prior occasion. I see on the ball he gave me that the Cubs mark their balls with a blue "C" opposite Selig's signature. I know Atlanta has no such mark- do other teams? Anyway, Sosa's game winner in the 15th headed out Ken's way, so be sure to check out his blog and see if he managed to catch it.

I spent the game itself with Al Yellon's crew in the back row of the right field bleachers. As I type, Al has a slight edge in me in terms of games attended at Wrigley Field (1600 even for Al, three for me.) Anyway, I'll write more about Al and the bleacher folks tomorrow when I both have more time and will have thought to take some pictures of them. You would think in fifteen innings it would have crossed my mind.

I'll be flying out after the game tomorrow, and I'll do my best to post tomorrow night from Grandma's house on Long Island in New York. Its sure nice of the Cubs to schedule such exciting games for my visit. Hopefully tomorrow's will be nice and easy. Remember, I am 3-0 lifetime at Wrigley.

posted by Scott at 12:42 AM : |

 

Walkoff

Well, that was the best Cubs win I've ever been to. I am headed to Comiskey for the evening (since I've never been there), but I wanted to pop in and share some of the excitement, or at least whatever's left after I hollered my lungs out at every person I passed on the way home. Just a fantastic game, albeit one we should have ended a couple of times earlier. A magnificent performance from the pen, and a great way to finally end it.

I'll be back with a bit more detail this evening, including my account of getting to meet Ken of the Waveland Chronicles and Al from And Another Thing. Also, my friend tells me I need to try an Italian Beef at the White Sox game, so I'll let you know if that turns out to be a good idea or not. I'll have my eyes on the out-of-town (although I guess it isn't really) scoreboard; here's hoping we force them to their pen and Kerry let's us stay away from ours.

posted by Scott at 7:10 PM : |

 

Exclusive in-person scouting report on Prior: He's good

I've been up for 40 of the last 42 hours, so let's be sloppy and give a few fun bullet points before passing out in the hotel.

• That was one long rain delay to sit through, but damn does Prior know how to make it worth my time
• There are an awful lot of smokers at Wrigley Field. I noticed five or six different people in my immediate vicinity light up in their seats. In 70-80 games at Turner Field, I don't think I've ever seen that happen.
• Cardinals fans are bad parents. There was a little girl in pigtails on the train, dressed in Cardinal clothes head to toe just like the rest of her family. At one point, the train stopped short and her mother leaned toward her a bit, brushing against her back (the train was quite crowded.) The brat exclaimed to her mother "Would you get off me!?" and literally shoved her mom back. And the mom just took it! I guess that's Cardinal fans for you.
• I didn't intend to see a night game on this trip, but today kind of turned into one. I still don't like the lights, but I'll admit I kind of enjoyed the way they light up the field but not the fans. It feels like a stage, where the actors are lit but not the audience. In every other stadium I've seen a night game in (including minor league parks), everyone gets the full blast from the lights, players and fans alike.
• That was one stiff breeze blowing in. Prior got several balls to hang up at the track, and without the wind I have to think Sosa's ball is bouncing down Waveland. Of course, that begs the question- how did Karros muscle one out?
• I am far from being good at dissecting hitting mechanics, but Alou's knees seemed to buckle on every breaking pitch he got. I've got to wonder how well he is seeing the ball after watching that.
• The Genius has the advantage of having a hitter on his bench that Mark Prior simply can't dominate. Kerry Robinson used that ability marvelously, forcing Prior to use four whole pitches to strike him out.
• I am now 2-0 lifetime at Wrigley. I'll go for 3-0 tomorrow, as well as attempting to answer the age-old question:

Is Al Yellon gellin'?
posted by Scott at 1:53 AM : |