The Northside Lounge A Chicago Cubs blog with an occasional tangent on pop culture |
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Tuesday, June 17, 2003
Reds get another walk-off winCincinnati's good luck continued with a two-out RBI double from Sean Casey on a Wellemeyer pitch well out of the strike zone. Carlos Zambrano was on once again, striking out seven Reds in eight innings and allowing only one run. In a completely unexpected turn of events however, the Cubs offense was throttled all night long. The need for the return of the real Sammy Sosa tomorrow and Hee Sop Choi in a few days cannot be overstated. Tonight's loss dropped the Cubs into a tie for first with Houston. I hate to flip over to panic mode, but time is running out for Jim Hendry to make something happen. He was crowing in the Trib the other day about how he would be free to make a move to add salary if necessary, but its going to be too late if something doesn't happen soon. The great pitching of Prior, Wood, Zambrano, and most of the pen has kept us in it along with the lack of great play from our competition, but there is no way this team with this offense hangs in there much longer. Dennis will be in tomorrow morning with his in-person report. How fun is it to fight GAB traffic after an extra-inning loss? Dennis will tell all.
: | To Dusty, one victory, from BobThis space has been pretty hard on Dusty Baker in the past for lineup decisions and on the field strategic moves. Think of it like getting mad at your family. You get mad, state your peace and in the end are happy they are around. I think the attitude Dusty brings to the ballclub is great. The players believe in him and want to play for him. He is a great player's manager, so his moves can be taken with a small grain of salt. The same can not be said for Bob Boone. Ol' Boone gave Clement a chance to settle down yesterday and it wound up costing the Reds.
Tonight, the Cincinnati area will be dodging raindrops again. Carlos Zambrano takes on Ryan Dempster in what should be a good matchup for the Cubs. The game is on WGN. Keep an eye on the seats behind the Cubs dugout as the wife and I are in row 2 or 3 I think. Look for the pretty woman (as in a real pretty woman not the type of person Julia Roberts was in Pretty Woman, man, I gotta keep you guys in line sometimes) standing next to the guy who makes you think "what is she doing with him"? Sort of a Billy Joel, Ric Ocasek, Daid Copperfield thing going on. : | Monday, June 16, 2003
Well, at least the Cubs wonPitching a slow-pitch softball game in a park with a 220 foot outfield fence is a lot of fun right up until that 30th run crosses the plate. Then it starts to suck. Just so you know... In other news, Matt Clement had a third consecutive strong outing as the Cubs won 4-3 in Cincy. Moises and Karros had back-to-back homers in the sixth and Farnsworth, Alfonseca, and JoBo eached pitched scoreless innings to close it out. Dusty had his relatively benign lineup in today, with Goodwin and Harris both riding the pine. The criminal neglect of Bellhorn being a given, this is about as good a lineup as we've got. As the Clark & Addison Chronicle had figured out yesterday, Francis Beltran lasted a little under 24 hours before being sent down in favor of Bobby Hill. Check out Jason's coverage on this, since its far too baffling for me to explain. Also, check in here tomorrow for a dispatch from our ace field reporter Dennis Goodman, with an honest-to-god Cincinnati byline. : | Cubs' bloggers attendance streak to reach 7Check out Chris' first hand account of the first two games in Toronto over at the Yarbage Cub Review. I imagine he will have his thoughts on the third game later in the week. Hopefully he did not lose any notes after vomiting on them after seeing Harris was not only starting but batting second. That unfortunately is not a typo. OK, maybe Bellhorn made fun of Baker's mother, would not sign an autograph for his kid or maybe Baker just hates strikeouts, fine then play Harris. But for goodness sakes do not bat him second. You are giving a .170 hitter an extra AB in the game. Uggh!! This officially becomes an Oakland A's blog if Baker ever writes out a lineup with Goodwin leading off and Harris batting second. OK, maybe not.
: | Sunday, June 15, 2003
Extra inning magic leaves with GonzalezWithout our walkoff specialist in the lineup the Cubs lost their first extra-inning game of the season today, 5-4 to the Jays. Troy O'Leary managed to give the Cubs a 4-2 lead with a sixth-inning grand slam, but Shawn Estes gave the lead back in the bottom half. The Cubs mounted two minor threats the rest of the way but came up empty, while Toronto rookie Reed Johnson hammered his second home run of the game to end it in ten. Sanity returns tomorrow as the Cubs play a National League opponent, this time the Reds in Cincy. The GAB has proven to be a homer-friendly venue for Reds hitters, so it will be a test for Matt Clement who has seemed to have curbed his homer woes of late. John Riedling was scheduled to start for the Reds, but elbow tendinitis has derailed that plan. MLB.com says the Reds' options include ground-ball specialist Jimmy Anderson as well as relievers Chris Reitsma or Felix Heredia. Before the game today, Dave Kelton was sent down to Iowa in favor of Francis Beltran. Wellemeyer can't get in a game if it doesn't go at least 15 innings or feature a mid-game deluge, but its still important to add an arm to help the pen cover the last couple innings each day. Besides, there's nowhere for Kelton to fit into this power-packed Cubs lineup. I am beginning to think that neither Baker or Hendry recognize the black hole that is the Cub offense. Our pitching is good, even very good, but it isn't so good that we can make the playoffs with this collection of bats. : | Saturday, June 14, 2003
Cubs split first two games in SkydomeFriday night the Cubs managed twelve hits, but zero walks and only one run as they fell 5-1 to the Blue Jays. Kerry Wood allowed three homeruns and all five Toronto runs as the Cubs missed a chance to take sole posession in the Central. Ramon Martinez got the start at third but went 0-4, and Dave Kelton rode the bench in favor of Tom Goodwin and Troy O'Leary (3-4 and 0-4 respectively.) Today, the Cubs jumped on top early when Vernon Wells misplayed a ball off Moises Alou's bat for a 2 RBI knock, with Alou coming on around when he tried to stretch it and the throw bounced off his arm. Mark Prior allowed no earned runs on the day, and Farnsworth, Remlinger, Alfonseca, and Borowski combined for 3 1/3 scoreless to finish it off. From the "credit where its due" file, I really liked the Cubs lineup today. Dusty went with Kelton in left, Martinez at second, and Bellhorn at third. O'Leary was the one weak link, but Hendry and circumstances haven't left Baker with a lot of options. Tomorrow features Shawn Estes against Corey Lidle. The Jays have been significantly tougher against righties this year (.857 OPS compared to .815 against lefties), so hopefully Shawn can keep the nacent win streak going. : | Friday, June 13, 2003
Cubs winning streak washed awayLooking to stretch their winning streak to a season high five games, the Cubs could never get on track due to the weather and the right arm of Carlos Zambrano. In what is becoming a blog tradition of reverse karma, Carlos got roughed up a bit more than 5 hours after I praised him in this space. He gave up 5 hits and 4 runs (3 earned) in only 2 innings as the Orioles beat the Cubs 6-1. This game not only had its start delayed by rain, but a lengthy rain delay between the second and third inning. Given that Carlos had given up so many runs, I was performing a rain dance in my living room to no avail. I did see one of the cut-ins during the rain delay on the Extra Innings package and Oriole announcer Buck Martinez stated that the normal American League curfew had been "lifted" for this game since the Cubs and Orioles don't play again this season. This sounds a lot like asking you parents if you can stay out until 2:00 on prom night. I can just imagine the O's calling Bud Selig and saying "Sandy Alderson said we can play later, can we Bud, please, please?!"
The Amazing RaceThis is the first time I have talked about The Amazing Race in this space. It is my favorite reality show of the bunch. It is fun to see the teams fight with each other and other teams. The main appeal of The Amazing Race is that it is the one reality show that people can clearly imagine themselves as participants. Who couldn't travel all over the world?
Father's Day WeekendI am going out of town to see both my dad and my father-in-law this weekend, but I might have time to make brief posts. Also, tonight I will be watching the Indiana High School Softball final four because my wife's alma mater is playing. Good luck to the Dragons. It has been a good year for our high schools because mine won their first basektball championship this season going undefeated. It was also my school's first state championship in any sport. Nothing like a little small town Indiana athletics to fill the time. : | Thursday, June 12, 2003
Cubs looking to sweep Orioles, run win streak to 5In a somewhat rare getaway night game, the Cubs look to sweep the Orioles in Camden Yards this evening. Carlos Zambrano (5-5 3.05) will face Rick Helling (3-4 6.13). The Cubs have faced Pat Hentgen, Omar Daal, and Rick Helling in this series. Quite the list of pitchers that used to be effective but now and shadows of themselves. This is why teams like the A's can win with limited resources. The Orioles have lots of money but they decide to wrap it up in players like these. Now, they do only make a combined $5.2 million this season, but surely there are cheaper, better pitchers out there. These guys all peaked in the late '90s. Don't GMs understand that by definition a player can only have one peak season?
: | Cubs win in BawlmerMatt Clement was effective for a second consecutive start and Joe Borowski came on to bail out the bullpen as the Cubs emerged victorious from monsoon season in Charm City. The offense staked Clement to a 6-0 lead before Clement gave two back in the sixth. Farnsworth struck out the side in seventh, but gave up two singles to lead off the seventh. Alfonseca and Guthrie poured gas on the fire, and it wasn't until Joe Borowski came on four runs later that the Cubs got out of the inning. A two-hour rain delay ensued, after which JoBo came back out to shut down the O's in the ninth. Dave Kelton got the start in left, picked up his first ML hit in the fourth, got his first ML RBI in the sixth, and doubled and scored in the eighth. In other news, here's reason #183 I am glad I busted my budget to get the MLB Extra Innings package- watching Derek Jeter slink into the clubhouse as his home fans cheer the opposition's no-hitter. Roy Oswalt left the game one inning in after aggravating the groin he strained last month (hey, no cheering that.) The Astros just calmly called on first Pete Munro, then Kirk Saarloos, then Brad Lidge, then Octavio Dotel and finally Billy Wagner to hold the Yanks without a single hit. Its never really good to see the competition pick up a win, but if it had to happen then six guys combining to humiliate the Yanks isn't such a bad way for it to happen. Finally, I was woken up at 4:30 this morning to hear two car alarms going off. I was amazingly slow to react given the car theft I witnessed and recounted in this space the other day, but when I got up and looked through the window I saw a child (I guessed eight years old) running out of our parking deck. I went outside and found two cars with windows bashed in, another with the trunk busted open, and three jeeps with doors hanging open. Twenty short minutes later the popo arrived, told me they couldn't do jack, told me they wouldn't even bother to contact the victims and that they could just telefile the police reports in the morning (wouldn't want to trouble a cop or anything). In summary, if you are looking for a car radio or perhaps a selection of merchandise from someone's trunk, come to my apartment complex! I can guarantee no police interference for a minimum of twenty minutes. You know, Baltimore's finest would never let things like this happen. And so we have come full circle... : | Wednesday, June 11, 2003
Cubs take game one behind Estes, despite KimShawn Estes pitched absolutely brilliantly last night leading the Cubs to a 4-0 whitewashing of the Orioles. He pitched 7 innings allowing only 6 hits while striking out 5 and walking only 2. He also got stellar defense behind him as the Cubs rolled over 2 double plays (3 in total for the game) and Estes himself even got into the act with a great barehanded catch-and-throw play on a high chopper to the mound. Estes biggest crime this season has been his inconsistency. Believe it or not, he is 6-5 despite having an ERA over 5. When he has been bad, he has been very bad, but he pitches well enough on occasion to be a decent 5th starter for this team. Last night his curve ball was outstanding and it was good to get a strong performance by a starter to begin the 10 game road trip.
Despite the low total of walks, that is a monster season. A lot was made of Ryne Sandberg's run in 1984 to become the first player with 200 hits and 20 doubles, triples, homer and steals. He came up just short in homers and triples. Patterson will give the same record a very good run but also add 100 runs and RBIs. I would have to do some research, but I bet not too many full time players ever gets close to having the same number of triples as walks.
: | Tuesday, June 10, 2003
Cubs travel to Baltimore, face old St. Louis teamIt is sometimes difficult to come up with a great "hook" to lure fans with some of the interleague series. Baltimore/Chicago may not be as bad as Milwaukee/Tampa but I had to do some thinking to come up with any sort of compelling story line. Then it hit me. The Orioles are descendents of the old St. Louis Browns (and original Milwaukee Brewers for a season, in fact them moving to St. Louis probably broke the heart of Bud Selig's parents/grandparents). The Cubs hate all things about St. Louis in context of the baseball season, so there you go. This could be a pseudo rivalry. Ah, who am I kidding, there is nothing interleague play can offer that can top the Yankee series. Speaking of the Yankees, the Cubs will now become their biggest fans as they welcome in both Houston and St. Louis into the stadium this week.
: | Monday, June 09, 2003
Cubs take game, series from YankeesLast night on national television the Cubs were able to score early and often against Yankee starter Andy Pettitte and then hold on in the 9th to win 8-7. Scott and I were both online and chatted throughout the game. I decided to take notes and will present our thoughts on the game diary style. Yes, this is a direct rip off of Bill Simmons from ESPN's Page 2 sans the Beverly Hills 90210, Karate Kid and NBA basketball references. It is a fun format though and could give some insight into the tortured mind of a Cub fan.
: | Saturday, June 07, 2003
Cubs close out series in prime timeSunday night the Cubs will play the third and decisive game against the Yankees. The game pits Mark Prior (6-2 2.76) against Andy Pettitte (5-5 4.71) on ESPN's game of the week. Usually the thought of listening to an entire game of Joe Morgan would cause me to gouge my eyes out, but they are already gone because I had to listen to McCarver and Buck this afternoon. At least Morgan works with Jon Miller, who I think is very good. Dusty shuffled his pitchers earlier in the homestand to ensure Prior would get this start against the Yankees. The Cubs would not only like to win this game because of the extraordinary amount of hype involved, but winning gives them a 6-6 homestand. Yeah 6-6 is not all that good when all is said and done, but it is not a bad recovery considering they started 2-4.
Quick hit thoughts for todayI actually had to tape the game this afternoon because I was umpiring three little league games. To be quite honest, three of the worst little league games I have ever umpired. The pitchers could not find the strikezone all afternoon and that is saying something because I give pretty generous corners to 12 year olds. By the 4th inning of the third game, I could not see straight, but coming home and watching a Cubs victory made it all worth while. After spending some time watching the game and re-watching some of the better parts, here are some random thoughts after the Cubs first ever victory against the Yankees.
: | The cleaning crew is here, could someone ask Roger to move?If you missed it, you missed one of those games that we will remember even if we don't manage to contend for the division in September. Kerry pitched magnificently, Remlinger had the clutch strikeout of the year, and Eric Karros (about whom I take back 75% of the bad things I have said this year) hit the critical three-run bomb. Just a marvelous win. Despite the huge win, the major concern is the status of Hee Sop Choi. He was apparently knocked unconcious in a collision with Kerry Wood on a pop-up in the third inning. He was fitted with a neck brace, put on a stretcher, and loaded into an ambulance. I havve heard rumors that WGN reported him as being awake, talking, and moving in the hospital, but I haven't heard that myself. ESPN News is saying only that he is in "serious" condition. All of our thoughts are with him as we hope he is hale and hearty again in no time. : | Chasees become chasersWinning eight of their last eighteen has dropped the Cubs into a tie with the Cardinals (winners of five straight), one game behind the Astros (ditto). There is way too much season left to say we have to win today, but it would do a lot for my stress level if we could right the ship and get things moving in the right direction again. The short version of the Kerry Wood story is that he is a great talent who throws too many pitches to be a great pitcher. He is currently fifth in baseball with 4.1 pitches thrown per batter faced. The Yankees, with a reputation for seeing a lot of pitches, would seem like grease on the Wood-pitch-count fire. I haven't been able to dig up team-by-team pitches-seen stats for hitters, but I can tell you that the Yankees see more than their share. The top teams in baseball usually see about 3.9 pitches per plate appearance. By comparison, the Yankees lineup features such patient fellows as Jason Giambi (4.1), Raul Mondesi (3.9), Robin Ventura (3.9), and Jorge Posada (3.9), as well as less patient folks like Hideki Matsui (3.6) and Alfonso Soriano (3.5). In summary, Kerry needs to work more efficiently if he is going to get far into games, a fact that may be even more key today against the Yanks. Roger Clemens is actually eighth on the P/PA list, but goodness knows our collection of hackers won't test him in that department. I don't see any other obvious weaknesses in Clemens splits, unless you count the fact that he has been generally ineffective for the last month or so. I mean, if the Tigers can put six across in six inning against him, surely we can do some damage. A confidential note from me to the Atlanta Police. Next time I call you with a report of two guys hammering on a car in the parking deck outside my window, try to get here in less then twelve minutes. Experience I gained this morning tells me that they usually stick around from ten to eleven minutes after I call it in. Another thing that might be helpful is if you provide your officers with the gate codes to local gated apartment complexes. I mean, I am no master crime analyst or anything, but it seems to me that a barrier that is impenetrable to police but allows two car thieves to walk right in and out isn't going to help matters much. Last but not least, I teased a Baylor/Baker breakdown yesterday, but Doug made me feel guilty so I am going to keep it inside until the next time Baker ticks me off. I've got my eye on you, Dusty... Edited at 1:38 EDT to add:Dusty just sacrificed with the second hitter of the game. I am going through with the breakdown. : | Friday, June 06, 2003
Yanks run streak to nineThe visitors got to Carlos Zambrano early, tallying two in the first and three more in the third en route to a 5-3 victory at Wrigley this afternoon. Zambrano got tougher as the day wore on, but the damage was done as the Cubs offense couldn't come back against David Wells, Antonio Osuna, and Mariano Rivera. Martinez and Patterson homered for the Cubs, and Sosa flirted with one but came up shy.
For simplicity's sake, let's ignore the rest of the bench, and just focus on Miller and Baker's choice Lenny Harris. Miller's OPS is .668, Lenny's is .550. Miller's OPS against righties is .723, Lenny's is .584. In fact, Harris hasn't out-hit Miller since Miller's rookie season of 1997. I can see no conceivable reason to think Harris is a better choice than Miller in that situation even before you consider you are wasting a pinch-hitter if the game should go further. Anyway, Lenny smashed a mighty ten MPH grounder to the pitcher who tossed to first for the putout- rally killed. Can anyone either A) point out to me a reason to use Harris in place of Miller there or B) explain to me why the Cubs can't get a manager who can make simple tactical decisions correctly? Check back for a preview of tomorrow's game and an answer to the question "Don Baylor and Dusty Baker- which one is which again?" : | Wrevenge at Wrigley?The much-anticipated return of the Yankees to Wrigley Field finally comes this afternoon at 2:20 CDT. Before today's game, we are tied with Houston and just a game ahead of the Cardinals. Both of our competitors have to be salivating as they see us taking on the pinstriped dynasty while they face the Devil Rays and the Orioles respectively. Today's game pits 22 year-old righty Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 2.69) against the 40 year-old lefty David Wells (7-2, 3.35). Despite their differences, both have pitched very well this year. Wells has had a pretty severe reverse platoon split this year (.856 OPS allowed versus lefties as opposed to .620 versus righties), but that hasn't been the case in previous years so I wouldn't read too much into it. Wells has owned most of the Cubs he has faced before, with only Alex Gonzalez managing an OPS of more than .700 against him. In particular, I'll be shocked if Dusty let's Bellhorn see Wells given Bellhorn's 0-4 with 4 strikeout career record against him.
: | Thursday, June 05, 2003
Cubs romp, await YankeesDespite using Lenny Harris (no, seriously) as a leadoff hitter, the Cubs rode a strong performance from Matt Clement and a seven-run third inning to an 8-1 win. Clement struck out seven D-Rays while walking only two and even got out with less than 100 pitches in his seven innings. Its been said once or twice before, but this offense stinks. Even with a healthy Sosa, we don't have a pennant winner if we don't get some punch in the lineup. Hendry needs to get busy sooner rather than later. Come back tomorrow morning we'll have a preview of tomorrow afternoon's matchup between David Wells and Carlos Zambrano. : | Wednesday, June 04, 2003
Bloody WednesdayIf you guys are anything like me, you aren't having a very good day. Maybe you got a midnight call on your cellphone from a man with a fake Hispanic accent saying "Cheating has been berry berry good to me!" Perhaps you arrived at work to find three voicemails from people, each of them laughing their asses off and using the term "cork" to excess. Maybe you came back from a lunch meeting to find the exploding bat cartoon on espn.com's front page blown up to a lifesize color poster and taped to your cubicle wall. Or maybe, like me, you got to experience all of the above along with a dissertation comparing and contrasting Pete Rose, Bill Clinton, Adolph Hitler, and Sammy Sosa. Logically, all of this teasing doesn't make much sense. I didn't core out a bat and put cork in it. I didn't take a corked bat out to face Tampa Bay last night, and yet I find myself gritting my teeth, taking the abuse, all with a sick feeling of shame in my stomach. I have chosen my various favorite teams and players over the years for lots of reasons. No matter how I chose them though, any guy I have taken as my own goes out on the field representing me. If he hits a homerun, I feel pride. If he makes an error that costs the team the game, I feel guilty. If we win, I am happy. If we lose, I am sad. I realize in my head that it doesn't make a lot of sense. Still, I choose to let these players and teams represent me because I want to feel something. I want to put part of myself on the line with the Cubs. If one of our guys hits the walkoff homer in the bottom of the ninth in Game Seven that we have each imagined thousands of times, I am going to be the happiest man in the world. The tradeoff is suffering through days like today. Come back strong, Sammy. Show them all. I'll be right there with you. : | Rays uncork wild pitch, umpires uncork SosaThe Cubs snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last night winning 3-2 on a walk off wild pitch - which has to be the second worst walk off event for the defense behind only the walk off balk. Ramon Martinez was batting with men on second and third and one out when the Devil Rays tried to unintentionally, intentionally walk him. Levine either did too good of a job of missing the strike zone or too bad of a job of making it close and threw one to the backstop to plate the winning run. The really eerie thing was that Steve Stone predicted the game might end that way right before it did. He seems really good at predicting things like that - of course my memory only remembers the things he gets right and not the hundreds he probably misses.
: | Tuesday, June 03, 2003
Paging Jason Grimsley...In case you have not heard the story, Jason Grimsley was a fringe pitcher with the Indians a few seasons back. Albert Belle was accused of corking his bat one night at Comisky Park. The umpires stored the bat in their room to send it off to the league office after the game. When the game was over, they found a Paul Sorrento bat instead of the Belle bat. It seems Mr. Grimsley crawled through the ceiling tiles and pulled off the switch during the game. He replaced it with the Sorrento bat instead of another Bell bat because he suspected all of Belle's bats were corked. This story was taken from Baseball, Chicago Style: A Tale of Two Teams, One City by Jerome Holtzman and George Vass.
: | The draft continues... The Cubs have selected Michigan catcher Jake Fox (sliding into your screen in a Cape Cod League game on the right) with their third round pick. He's a 5-11, 210 pound junior said to have an average glove but a good deal of pop in his bat. He hit .357 this year with a .696 SLG. He didn't walk much (7.7% of plate appearances) but he didn't strike out much either (9.4% of PAs). This was said to be a draft without much catching talent, but Fox looks to have been one of the better players available so the Cubs may have simultaneously gotten a value and need pick here.
Update- Round 4- The Cubs select Florida State catcher Tony Richie, a 6-1, 215 pound junior. He is said to have a very good arm and was Baseball America's first team All-American catcher as a sophomore. His line was .373/.462/.621 this year, and for comparison to the numbers I gave on Fox above Richie walked in 13.8% of PAs and struck out in 11.1%. Catcher is certainly an organizational need, but two in the first three picks is a bit surprising (to me at least). Update Round 5- The Cubs take one of the much-maligned high school pitching set. This one is Darin Downs, a lefty out of Santa Luces HS listed at 6-3. The scout comments on mlb.com all look good, but who knows if that means anything? Update Round 6- This time its Sean Marshall, a lefty from Virginia Commonwealth University. He struck out a little over a man per inning with a 3/1 K/BB ratio, and allowed only 4 homers in 86 innings. Update Round 7 & 8- Kyle Boyer, a corner outfielder or maybe third baseman from Cal State in round seven. Matthew Lincoln, a lefty from Santa Ana College in the eighth. Boyer hit .338/.406/.511 with 23 steals in 27 tries. Lincoln struck out a little over a man an inning with a K/BB ratio right around 4. : | And the next Cub superstar is...1- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- Delmon Young 2- Milwaukee Brewers- Ricky Weeks 3- Detroit Tigers- Kyle Sleeth 4- San Diego Padres- Tim Stauffer 5- Kansas City Royals- Christopher Lubanski A brief interlude from your hosts: Dennis says: Mike Aubrey, 1B/OF, Tulane University- .505 OBP and .733 SLG. Does not walk as much as the other guys but OBP is good because he has been plunked around 20 times. Steals some bases at a high success rate (19 of 21). If the Kelton experiment in left does not work, we need someone to take Alou's place in a couple of seasons. Scott says: Ryan Harvey, OF, Dunedin HS, FL- Dennis wisely looks askance at drafting high school players, but in this case I am going to make an exception. There probably isn't any high school pitcher that could tempt me into taking him, but high school position players at the top of the draft go on to become top level stars at a very comprable rate to college players. Harvey is a 6-5 CF with speed and power. John Sickels calls him a "tools monster", and the scouts consensus seems to be that he has every physical ability you could ask for. Sickels does question his plate discipline, but he is (obviously) far too young to rule out improvement in that area. Ultimately, when you have one guy left on the board who would have been a plausible #1 overall pick you've got to go for it. Jim Hendy says:
Ryan Harvey, OF, Dunedin HS, FL Before the draft, the word was that the Cubs would go for the best player available. With most of these players at least a couple years away, and a trade always an option in the event of a logjam, that's a strategy that makes sense. This is who Hendry wanted, and this is who he gets. I guess it puts the pressure on me since they took my guy! We'll be back with more when the Cubs pick in the third round (having lost their second round pick to Atlanta for signing Remlinger) and beyond later in the day. Also, more coverage at The Cub Reporter. : | Sandberg comes to WrigleyOK, not that Sandberg, but Ryno's nephew Jared is a member of the Devil Rays. Tampa comes to town for the first time in its team history for a three game interleague series. Former Cub Jemeri Gonzalez makes his return to Wrigley Field to face the struggling Matt Clement (on FoxSports 8:05 in the east). Tampa is 9-18 on the road this season, so hopefully the Cubs can get pull off a little winning streak before the Yankees come calling. The Cubs need some home cooking because they are only 14-13 at home this season. This is over .500 but under average. The cumulative winning percentage for teams at home since 1901 is near 54% with good teams being much better that that. It would serve them well to get to 60% at home since their road record is a very respectible 16-12.
Draft DayToday at 1:00 PM in the east, the major league first year player draft takes place. Major League Baseball's website will let you listen to the draft as it happens. The Cubs pick 6th and then will not pick again until the third round. The Braves get the Cubs second round pick as compensation for losing Remlinger. They would have lost their first round pick, but it was in the top half of the draft. The Cubs have been one of the teams to take the leap to grabbing college pitchers of late and hopefully that will continue. The draft preview for the Cubs quotes the scouting director saying they will take the best player available at 6 with no regard to filling a need. Everyone knows the Cubs are stocked with arms, so they can either get more and use them as trade bait or switch horses and get some bats especially behind the plate. Scott and I will recap the draft later on in the week. And after alllllll, I read MoneyballlllIf anyone gets that comment, you are either really up on 90s music or really sad like me (or both). Anyways, I finished the book over the weekend. There have been numerous (google Moneyball and it lists 1480 pages) reviews, comments, critiques, and praises for this book, so anything I say will not do it justice. If you are still on the fence though, I say purchase it. You won't be disappointed.
: | Monday, June 02, 2003
Cubs continue to struggle at homeKerry Wood looked as dominant as Nolan Ryan at times and as helpless as Micah Bowie in others as the Astros routed the Cubs 9-3 yesterday to take two of three in their weekend series. Wood struck out 11 Astros and only gave up six hits and 3 walks in his 6 innings. Unfortunately four of the six hits and 2 of the three walks all came in the 4 run Astro 4th.
Weekend MovieFor the first time in a long time, the wife and I took in a movie this weekend. We saw The Italian Job with Marky Mark (come on feel it, feel it!!) Edward Norton and others. Pretty good popcorn flick. Lots of car chases and heist scenes with the required gadgets and cool stuff that criminals can always find. I wish they would sell this stuff at Wal-Mart. Also, I would hate to be an insurance agent for a gangster pulling off "one last job". It is probably easier to get coverage if you are a 300 pound diabetic with a three pack a day habit.
Finally, a personal noteToday is my wedding anniversary. The Cubs were in first place the day I got married which is something a lot of fans cannot claim. It cannot be easy living with a Cub fan given their bi-polar nature during the summer months. Just this weekend I literally jumped for joy when Sammy got his game winning hit on Saturday and then threw the remote and left the room in a tiff after Remlinger blew up Sunday. Through it all, Kara maintains an even keel and has even grown to become a fan of the team. I am a lucky guy. : | Sunday, June 01, 2003
Pitcher's DuelThe Cubs held the Astros scoreless for sixteen innings yesterday, just long enough for Sammy Sosa to punch a single past a drawn-in five-man infield for a 1-0 win. Check out the Cub Reporter for a great recap of the game. Also, can someone explain to me why a guy who has hit 300 homers in the last six seasons with a 1.000+ OPS deserves to be booed for going 0 for his first 10 coming off the DL? What on earth are you people thinking?The Cubs have lost eight of fourteen but continue to cling to a two game lead in the Central. They try to extend that lead to three games today as Kerry Wood (4-3, 2.78) takes on the southpaw rookie Jeriome Robertson (3-3, 6.46). Robertson's overall line is ugly, but he is 2-0 with a 3.06 in his last three starts. The Cubs (with the exception of Paul Bako) have never seen him, so let's hope the advance scounts have given our hitters a good report. Finally, I don't want to be a corporate shill, but do yourself a favor and scroll down for Dennis's review of the Cubs hitters performances this year. The witty putdowns of Tom Goodwin's hitting abilities are just the start! : | Saturday, May 31, 2003
And now, the rest of the storyScott took care of the pitchers earlier this week, so I am here to talk about the bats. Again, I will be looking at some numbers that are not traditional and indexing them to the NL average. My statistics are current as of yesterday's game. I am covering anyone on the team who has more than 10 at bats, so that includes the starters. Here are some of the stats I am using::
Enough with the set-up, lets get this ball rolling starting with the team as whole.
The Cubs have been pretty average in terms of offensive production. Given the pitching staff, average will be enough to win a lot of ballgames. They are 8th in the league in runs scored. The only statistic that is far from the league average is eye meaning that they don't walk as much as they strikeout compaed to the league. If this ratio comes up it not only means that the Cubs are putting the ball in play more which leads to easy RBIs, but they are walking more. Both could turn into more runs.
Quietly, Moises Alou is putting up a pretty good season. He is in the top ten of RARP for left fielders, above average in nearly all facets of the game. The most amazing thing is that he has only struck out 20 times compared to 19 walks. Those kind of numbers are not put up too often. The only annoying thing about Alou is the occasional half swing dribbler. He also still has a surprisingly good arm in the field as well.
Offensively he is just barely above replacment level, but his job is not to put up Mike Piazza numbers. His job is to make sure Miller does not wilt in the August heat and not be an automatic out when he bats. Plus, he catches a decent game when he is in there. Walks quite a bit when he plays and gets on base right at the league average. His hit against the Reds was responsible for Griffey missing some time plus he had 6 RBIs that day. Not a bad guy to have on your bench.
Bellhorn, oh Bellhorn you had the chance to keep third base all to yourself and struggled. Now, you are in Dusty's doghouse and I cannot figure out why. He still controls the strikezone and gets on base better than the league average. The only puzzling thing from my standpoint has been the lack of power. Going into the season, his biggest asset was the ability to walk and that has continued as he has walked 18% of the time. He does strike out a bit but this does not make him an invaluable player. He ranks 18th in RARP, imagine what that would be if some balls in play fell for hits. I fear we may never know.
A checklist I would want for a ballpayer: good OBP, good SLG, commands the strikezone, and walks a bunch. For Choi that is check, check, check and check. He is the 10th most productive first sacker in the majors all while seeing a lot of the league for the first time. He still whiffs quite a bit, but I believe that a) this is not the biggest deal in the world and b) he will improve as he ages. He has gotten almost 62% of the PAs in the first base "platoon" although he has sat against some righties. Baker does not seem to like strikeouts, so hopefully this number does not drop because Karros turns into Joe Girardi against righties. Easily a chance to beocme a big time producer in the bigs.
To quote Bill James, "Pass."
Estes is the only Cub starting pitcher to draw a walk this season, so he has that going for him, which is nice.
A player much like Damien Miller in that he is here for his defense and what you get out of the bat is gravy. There is not really a stellar part of his offensive game, but there are no huge weaknesses. Sure some more walks and a better command of the zone would be great, but he is not supposed to be an offensive leader. Known for his clutch hits this season. The funny thing is that his OBP in late and close situations is actually worse that his overall OBP. Of course, he is slugging .645 in those situations.
Let's see, a player who does not make contact as a league average rate, does not get on base enough, does not walk enough and has no command of the strike zone, how about we bat him leadoff once a week. I have lamented on just how bad he is before, so I won't go through all the numbers again here. Suffice to say I think he should be a sunk cost. There are better players for even cheaper than the $635,000 we are paying him. The n/a in the rank column is because he plays more than one defensive spot and I did not want to scroll down the page far enough to find his name.
Mark came into to spring training and stole the job from Bobby Hill. He then proceeded to play his little heart out and put up some decent numbers. His performance this season looks nothing like his previous three. He does not walk much, but the high batting average is keeping his OBP above the league average. I think this is the perfect Dusty Baker player, someone who has a high batting average and puts the ball in play, the anti-Bellhorn. He is also the type of player that scares the death out of me. His performance is built on a foundation of cotton candy and could come crashing down at any moment. You can get lucky and hit to 18 in blackjack a few times in a row and win some money, but I would not bet the mortgage payment on it happening the next time.
Lenny Harris has successfully taken his pinch hitting mentally into his new everyday job. That means he swings early if it is a strike to avoid whiffing thus making his eye percentage great even though he only has seven walks. Nevermind that once he makes contact the ball is hit with the same power as when my sister strikes it. He has a lower OBP, SLG, OPS, and walk % than Bellhorn yet he has started more recently. But he does make contact and maybe that is what Dusty likes. When and if the Cubs go out and get a third basemen, remember it was Baker's insistence to use Harris that forced Hendry's hand and not Bellhorn's play.
Chalk Eric Karros up as my biggest surprise for 2003. I have given Baker some grief in earlier comments, but here I will give him some credit. To me, the most vital part of managing is putting players in a role where they can succeed. For Goodwin it is selling ice, cold Budweiser and for Karros it is hitting lefties. His OPS against southpaws this season is 1.135. I would love to see Choi get 90% of the PAs at first, but I cannot really compain if Karros continues to hit this way. He is doing everything from commanding the strikezone to hitting with power. Ever have a girlfriend that had a pretty cool roommate? While the girlfriend was getting ready it was nice to know you could kill some time talking with the roommate. You never wanted anything much just something to hold your attention until the main attraction was ready. Well consider Karros Choi's roommate.
Martinez is a great guy to have on the ballclub. He gets on base, has a little power, walks some, controls the zone, and can play all the infield positions. If Baker has completely given up on Bellhorn, then Martinez should be starting at third. At least he does not have a negative RARP value. He is the guy that comes to your party with a 12 pack, but he won't steal the girl you have your eye on. His rank is n/a since he plays so many positions. Good 25th man.
Miller has slumped of late and seen his batting average get down into the .220s, but his above average walk rate puts his OBP near the league average. I had my reservations about Miller, but I am pleased. He catches a good game, has the pitchers' respect, and does not embarass himself with the stick. I like the fact that he can turn a fastball around every now and then. Along with Gonzalez, he has hit some of the biggest homers of the season thus far. He is the type of guy that will fly under the radar until October and then get a huge hit in the world series. Javier Vazquez would have one more victory if not for a Miller homer earlier in the season.
Another guy that makes contact but nothing else. Noticing a trend yet? O'Leary was basically signed to be a left handed bat off the bench. He was thrust into action with the Sosa injury and basically proved why he was a bench player. Anyone who thinks this team can win without Sosa should look only at the above stats. His rank is n/a for the same reason as Goodwin.
Patterson is hacking his way to a fine season. Some of his balls that were doubles when he was a younger man are finding the seats this season. He still has no concept of the strikezone as shown by pretty terrible walk and eye numbers, but when he makes contact he scorches the ball. Hackers can really only be successful if they have speed to beat out Texas Leaguers and power to make sure the ball is hit hard. Patterson has both so like Soriano of the Yankees he can have some value even as he hacks. If he ever develops some patience and strikezone judgement watch out. Without it he is the 7th best center fielder, with it there is no limit to how good he can be.
Are you kidding me? A freaking pitcher with an above league average slugging percentage. He has more doubles than Lenny Harris, Paul Bako and Tom Goodwin. He has as many homers as Harris and Goodwin and more than Bako. He is not only the best pitcher on the staff, but he is one of the best pinch hitting options off the bench. I don't think Baker would ever use him above the other guys - but he should.
If this is a slump, I feel sorry for pitchers when he gets on track. Sammy is the former holder of the most famous big toenail in all the midwest. A toenail that landed him on the DL. He is now back and it is only a matter of time before he starts crushing the ball. The bar is raised so high for Sammy that these numbers look poor. Don't fall into that trap, his slugging percentage is still high, he is taking more walks, he is controlling the strike zone and now he is healthy. The Cubs offense receives a huge boost with him in the lineup.
Wood would be the best hitting pitcher on most staffs. On the Cubs he is third. Still good for the occasional homer and has surprising power the other way. I like the fact that he is not an automatic out.
The third Cub starter to hit a homer his season. He has also a couple of doubles in his ledger. Reminds me more of a guy that just swings hard in case he makes contact, but he can actually switch hit. It is great that the Cubs have three starters in the top 25 of all pitchers in RARP Well, that is all of the sticks. The Cubs are strongest comapred to other teams at first, the outfield and on the mound. As a team they are average and need to work on their strikezone command and judgement. Mainly, they just need to score a few each night as their pitching will keep them in most games. With Slammin' Sammy back, that should not be difficult. They play the Astros this afternoon at Wrigley on WGN (4:00 EST). Oswalt, in his first start off the DL, will take on Zambrano. : | Sosa returns; scoring doesn'tWade Miller mowed down the Cubs last night as the Astros won 9-1 and moved within a game of the Cubs in the Central. In his return to the lineup, Sammy struck out on four pitches in the first, struck out on four pitches in the fourth, struck out on four pitches in the seventh, and fouled out to the catcher to end the game. Not to worry though, June is here tomorrow so I predict twenty homers for the month starting tomorrow. Roy Oswalt (3-4, 3.68) returns from a stint on the disabled list this afternoon to face Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 3.02) at Wrigley. Oswalt was pitching well but not quite as well as he has in past years when he strained his right groin sliding into second two weeks ago. The Cubs could really use a new win streak, so wear your lucky talismans and for God's sake let's get some runs.
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