Sosa returns; scoring doesn't

Wade Miller mowed down the Cubs last night as the Astros won 9-1 and moved within a game of the Cubs in the Central. In his return to the lineup, Sammy struck out on four pitches in the first, struck out on four pitches in the fourth, struck out on four pitches in the seventh, and fouled out to the catcher to end the game. Not to worry though, June is here tomorrow so I predict twenty homers for the month starting tomorrow.

Roy Oswalt (3-4, 3.68) returns from a stint on the disabled list this afternoon to face Carlos Zambrano (5-4, 3.02) at Wrigley. Oswalt was pitching well but not quite as well as he has in past years when he strained his right groin sliding into second two weeks ago. The Cubs could really use a new win streak, so wear your lucky talismans and for God's sake let's get some runs.

CAPTURED!

On a personal note, I was ecstatic this morning to see that Eric Robert Rudolph has been apprehended by sheriff's deputies in Murphy, NC. I am intensely proud of my hometown, Atlanta, GA, and the best summer of my life was our Olympic summer of 1996. Rudolph tried to ruin that summer by committing an act of terror back before terror was "cool" (that's sarcasm). He failed, thanks to the resilience of Atlantans and our Olympic guests, but he did murder two people and injure many more in the Olympic Park bombing and subsequent attacks in Atlanta and Birmingham. It does my heart good to see trash like him in jail where he belongs. On behalf of Matt Ghaffari, Carl Lewis, Kurt Angle, Amy Van Dyken, Michael Johnson, Tiffeny Milbrett, and all the other heros of the 1996 Olympics (athletes and otherwise), thank you law enforcement. Here's to justice.

posted by Scott at 10:46 AM : |

 
With May ending and the summer kicking off, we figured now was a good time to look over the Cubs roster and see what we could find. We will try to use some less traditional numbers and maybe shed some light on things that you may not have been aware of about the Cubs players. I'll be handling the pitchers, and Dennis will follow in day or so with the batters.I am indexing most of my stats to the National League averages. In other words, 100 means league average while 110 is 10% above league average and 200 is double league average. Here are the numbers I'll be presenting that might not be obvious:

• BF- Batters faced
• Strike%- the percentage of strikes thrown, indexed to league
• G/F- Ground ball to fly ball ratio, indexed to league.
• K%- Strikeouts per batter faced, indexed to league
• BBHB%- Walks and hit batters per batter faced, indexed to league
• HR%- Homers allowed per batter faced, indexed to league

Before we get into it, a word about defense. Current research suggests that the rate a team turns balls in play (basically plate appearances minus BB, HBP, K, and HR) into outs is a pretty good measure of team defense. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs have turned 71.87% of balls in play into outs. That's just a smidge better than the league average of 71.19%. I am sure all the guys I am about to talk about appreciate it. Now let's get on with it.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Antonio Alfonseca	51	4.39	83	90	102	81	91	57	147

After missing April due to a spring training hamstring injury, Alfonseca has returned to pitch very well for the first two weeks of May. He struggled in mid-month, and got hammered his last time out against the Bucs. Overall, he has pitched about like he always does- like an average major league reliever. Of course, that doesn't mean he isn't still campaigning to reclaim his birthright no matter how much better Borowski has been.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Alan Benes	36	2.17	117	88	98	126	145	163	0

Alan Benes pitched well in his three outings for the Cubs, but when Alfonseca came off the DL Jim Hendry elected to send him to Texas to clear a roster spot. The Cubs are scheduled to receive a PTBNL who remains TBNL to this day.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Joe Borowski	92	1.88	62	50	106	66	177	64	41

Other than Eric Gagne, there has been no reliever in baseball tougher on opposing hitters than Joe Borowski. He has only been hit hard in one outing all year, that in an 11-7 win in Colorado. His numbers are strong across the board, with a nasty strikeout rate complementing good control. Although he said today he may change his mind at some point, Dusty deserves credit for sticking with Borowski rather than handing the "experienced closer" the job.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Matt Clement	261	4.99	96	102	101	150	109	108	144

What's wrong with Matt Clement? He hasn't looked like the same guy who had a breakthrough season last year, and instead has fallen to become the least effective Cubs starter. His OBP and SLG rates are about league average, but his strikeout rate has fallen and batters are finding him much easier to take out of the yard than in 2002. A return to form would be a huge boost for the Cubs going forward.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Juan Cruz	107	7.14	104	91	100	95	136	109	105

Juan Cruz, dangled as trade bait much of the year, hasn't taken the step forward many had hoped after last years solid performance. His strikeout rate remains strong, but balls in play have been falling in resulting in too many runs crossing the plate. Despite the ugly ERA, Juan Cruz has faced more hitters than anyone else in the Cub pen.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Shawn Estes	248	4.88	114	97	99	170	75	94	45

Despite not getting much support from the defense behind him (a team high .354 batting average allowed on BIP) Shawn Estes has been a pleasant surprise in the fifth starter slot. He was hit hard in his first start Cincinnati, and then again later in April in Colorado, but for the most part he has kept the Cubs in games which is all we could have expected. He has the highest G/F ratio of his career, so if the defense can pick it up a bit behind him he may well pitch even better from here on out.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Kyle Farnsworth	86	2.49	81	70	100	89	169	114	87

Kyle has pitched very well this year, showing signs of a return to the dominant form of 2001. His strikeout rate is excellent, and with a little better control we could be seeing great things from him again. For a reason I am not aware of, Dusty hasn't been using him much lately as he has only pitched twice since three scoreless innings on May 13th.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Mark Guthrie	49	3.54	86	103	96	151	142	139	230

Before going on the DL with tendonitis a couple weeks ago, Guthrie was playing with fire even if his ERA didn't show it. His walk rate was high and his homer rate higher. He gave up three homers in only twelve innings, including a game-winning shot by the less than Bondsesque Sean Casey, another game-winner for Preston Wilson, and a less meaningful bomb by Richie Sexson. Hopefully the rest will do him some good.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Phillip Norton	14	5.45	108	44	92	114	0	209	0

Norton has filled in respectably since being called up to take Guthrie's left-handed spot in the pen. I presume he'll be headed back to Iowa as soon as Guthrie is ready to return.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Mark Prior	317	2.82	83	76	109	99	152	74	47

Oh, Mark. How do I love thee? Let me count the ways: 1) You've got a homer rate less than half league average. 2) You've got a walk rate less than three-quarters league average. 3) Your strikeout rate is sky-high once again. 4) Neither righties not lefties are managing even a .600 OPS against you. 5) You allowing a lower OPS with runners on than with the bases empty, and lower still with men in scoring position.

I could go on all evening, but there is still a ways to go on this article. Besides, I know everyone feels the same way I do so why belabor the point? Suffice to say I am reconsidering my insistence that Mark Teixera was the right man for that draft pick.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Mike Remlinger	92	2.54	95	75	95	36	164	159	122

Remlinger was brought in to be the ace lefty from the pen and so far he has done the job. He has walked some people and given up three homers in just 24 innings, but he is striking out a ton of guys and thus keeping his overall numbers under control.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Dave Veres	26	7.89	116	120	102	89	89	75	144

Veres got knocked around for the first couple weeks then hit the DL. Reports from rehab say his velocity has been up and down, indicating an ongoing problem.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Todd Wellemeyer	18	0.00	34	27	110	30	291	0	0

Todd Wellemeyer was called up in mid-May, and took to a major league mound like Mike Tyson to an inappropriate comment. He has pitched far too few innings to accurately make a judgement about how he will pitch the rest of the way, but his memorable 17th inning mowing down of the Brewers in his debut will stick with us for a while.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Kerry Wood	305	2.78	94	76	97	78	170	141	74

Every passing year seems to bring Kerry closer to what we all hoped he would be when he burst on the scene in 1998. Heck, he might actually be there now. The only bugaboo boils down to pitch counts. Dusty has worked him awfully hard, but the thing that Dusty and the pitch-counters can agree on is that Kerry would be better off if he could achieve the same results with less pitches per batter (he is fifth highest in the majors at 4.1). Until he gets that figure down, he is not going to be able to develop into the Cy Young pitcher he is capable of being.

---

Name	BF	ERA	OBP	SLG	STRIKE	G/F	K%	BBHB%	HR%
Carlos Zambrano	276	3.01	95	74	98	140	124	113	41

Now that's what I am talking about. On paper, the Cubs looked like a .500 team coming into this season. Those kind of teams can become contenders in a hurry if a couple of guys step up and deliver star turns, and that's exactly what we are getting from Zambrano. His strikeout rate has been very good and he has kept the ball on the ground and in the park. His control could use some improvement, but so far he has been a big reason for our success.

posted by Scott at 11:00 PM : |

 

Pirates abuse Cubs pen in rout

The Pirates exploded for nine runs in the eighth inning as the Cubs were routed on Memorial Day at Wrigley. Kerry Wood was babied to the tune of 109 pitches, and fought Josh Fogg nearly pitch for pitch. Pittsburgh clung to a one-run lead (scored on a bases-loaded wild pitch) until Wood left the game, then lit up Norton, Cruz, and Alfonsca to blow the game open.

Kerry Wood, who had received three runs of support per game in his last six starts, was the victim once again as Tom Goodwin and Lenny Harris led the Cubs offense to a sterling zero-run performance. Don't blame Dusty Baker though- Mark Bellhorn simply isn't outhitting Lenny Harris by enough to justify letting Bellhorn play. There is a reason Lenny has the most pinch-hits in history- he isn't good enough to start. Actually, to be precise, he wasn't good enough to start ten years ago when he was in his prime. Now he isn't good enough to hit fungoes in batting practice.

No bitterness here though. No, I am looking forward to tomorrow when Matt Clement faces Kris Benson in a rematch of last Thursday's 3-2 Cubs win. Do you think we might give Clement a few more runs to play with this time? No, me neither.

posted by Scott at 5:28 PM : |

 

Cubs wrap road trip with win

While I was canoeing up and down the Chattahoochee River yesterday, the Cubs managed their first win by more than one run since the Milwaukee series, 7-3 over the Astros. Moises Alou was 3-4 with three RBIs as the Cubs put another game between them and all three of their closest competitors in the Central.

Today the Cubs return home to face the Pirates. Josh Fogg (1-2, 4.35) will make his first start since suffering a strained oblique muscle against the Cubs in April. He made his second rehab start for the Nashville Sounds on Wednesday, allowing a walk, a homer, and striking out four in six innings. Fogg has always had a large platoon differential, so you can cringe a little less than you normally would when you see Goodwin and Harris take the field. The Cubs answer with Kerry Wood (4-2, 2.94) who is the subject of trade speculation in the Trib today. Clark & Addison shreds the writer's logic so I'll let Jason speak for me on this one.

posted by Scott at 9:25 AM : |

 

Estes has the cure

Corey takes to the air to deny Jeff Bagwell in the sixth.

Just when it seems like the wheels are going to come off this jalopy, the Cubs pull out another win. Tonight it was six solid innings from Shawn Estes, three shutout innings from the pen, and just enough support from the bats. The Cubs broke open a scoreless game in the sixth with a bunt single and steal from Corey and an RBI double from Alou, then added two more in the seventh on RBI doubles from Gonzalez and Patterson. Houston put two across against Estes in the bottom of the seventh, forcing him out of the game with two on and nobody out. Dusty called on Mike Remlinger to put out the fire and he did, getting three outs while stranding both inherited runners right where they were when he entered the game.

Corey's penchant for first-pitch hitting continued, as he went 2-2 when putting the first pitch in play and 0-3 with a pair of strikeouts when not doing so. Unfortuantely, Mark Bellhorn's bench banishment also continued. As good as our pitching can be, we are going to have to be able to win some games where we allow more than two runs. I don't think we need Mike Lowell when we've got Bellhorn, but if Dusty simply isn't going to use Bellhorn then we'd be a better ballclub if a trade were made.

Tomorrow afternoon the Cubs conclude the road trip as Carlos Zambrano (4-4, 2.88) takes on Wade Miller (2-5, 5.01). Despite the numbers next to his name, Wade Miller hasn't been hit all that hard this year- a .730 OPS allowed compared to a .701 and .705 each of his last two strong years. His major problem has been pitching with men on base- his OPS goes from .641 to .885 when men are on base. Hopefully the Cubs can put some leadoff runners on and spur a big inning or two.

posted by Scott at 12:01 AM : |

 

Big inning fells Cubs

A favorable pitching matchup ended in a dissapointing result for the Cubs tonight as they fell 7-5 in Houston. Mark Prior gave up six runs in an ugly first inning. He pitched very well the rest of the way, and the Cubs offense tried to get back in it led by Ramon Martinez's 4-4 with a walk. It wasn't destined to be enough though, as the Cubs got the winning run to the plate in the ninth but couldn't get that last big hit.

With the Prior start by the boards, the Cubs turn to Shawn Estes (4-3, 5.11) to get a new win streak started. He will face the young Tim Redding (3-3, 3.47), a right-hander in the midst of his best season to date.

posted by Scott at 12:08 AM : |

 

Cubs win on 9th inning homer from Goodwin

Tom Goodwin took Scott Sauerbeck out to right field to give the Cubs a 3-2 win and a split of the abbreviated series in Pittsburgh. Wins are always welcome, but this one particularly so as it breaks a three-game skid and sends the Cubs to 6-4 on the death march. Clement was once again vulnerable to the longball, but he managed to have the bases empty for the two Pirate home runs. Goodwin was the star of the game, with two singles and an additional run scored before his ninth inning heroics.

But you know what? It doesn't change a thing. Tom Goodwin is still a lousy hitter. Lenny Harris is still a truly horrible hitter. At this point in his career, Eric Karros is still a lousy hitter for a first baseman (even if he has a had a decent start.) This team has a good, maybe great pitching staff, but no staff in baseball is good enough to win with a lineup like the one on Dusty's lineup card tonight.

Injuries to players like Sosa and perhaps (as alluded to by Steve Stone tonight) Choi would thin anyone's bench, but injuries are part of the game and you have got to be prepared to deal with them. Jim Hendry needs to give Dusty better outfield options than Troy O'Leary and Tom Goodwin. Dusty needs to take advantage of the good hitters that he has- Bellhorn and Choi in particular. This isn't a team with a huge margin for error. Ten runs in the last five games is enough to make me very worried.

Ah well, I should just shut up and enjoy the win. The trip wraps up with three in the erstwhile Enron Field this weekend. Tomorrow's game will feature our own little Cy Young candidate Mark Prior (5-1, 2.02) against Houston's Scott Linebrink (0-1, 3.71). Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Linebrink has held lefties to a .626 OPS while allowing righties a 1.007 OPS this year. Before this year it was .775 for lefties and .936 for righties, so let's look for a big day from our right-handed bats. Who will all be in the lineup, right Dusty?

posted by Scott at 11:30 PM : |

 

Cubs fall again

Another lackluster hitting day from the offense coupled with a sub-par peformance by Kerry Wood meant the Cubs' fourth loss in five games, this time 5-2 in Pittsburgh. Mark Bellhorn drew the only Cubs walk as D'Amico and company rolled over the Cubs offense. Tom Goodwin struck out in another clutch pinch-hit performance. Call me crazy, but I prefer the standard "pinch-hit for bad hitters with good hitters" approach to Dusty's inverse method.

Clement faces Benson tomorrow. As I wrote about last week, the only problem with Clement statistically this year has been a propensity to cough up the longball, so let's hope he keeps the Bucs in the park tomorrow. Benson has been particularly vulnerable to lefties over the years, so let's look for big games from Choi, Corey, and O'Leary.

posted by Scott at 12:02 AM : |

 

Corey and Kerry, Pirates pray for... rain

Pittsburgh avoided a three game sweep by raining out last night's game. It will be made up as part of a twinbill in September. Dusty says Kerry will pitch tonight and Clement tomorrow. The Pirates say they considered sticking with Benson tonight and pushing D'Amico ahead two days, but instead they announced they will follow the Cubs' plan and push D'Amico to tonight and Benson to tomorrow. This also gives them a convenient way to give Kip Wells time to heal his blister.

In other news, Sammy appears unlikely to come off the DL when he is eligible to Sunday. Dusty comments on Sosa but says nothing specific in an article at mlb.com today. The article also discusses Matt Clement's losing streak. Baker and Rothschild say that Clement's problems have been mostly bad luck and a few bad pitches, and that they think the problems are easily remedied. Here's hoping they are right.

I was satisfied with the Buffy finale last night. I wish they hadn't killed Anya, but overall it was a decent episode, if not quite as good as a finale like "The Harvest" or "Graduation Day." I haven't spoken with Dennis, but I suspect he will be by with a 24 recap as soon as he can get a little time away from work today.

posted by Scott at 6:58 AM : |

 

NL Central Death March heads to Pittsburgh

Kerry Wood meets Jeff D'Amico for the first game of a three game set with the Pirates at PNC Park tonight. D'Amico has been effective if not overpowering most of the season. He also has a history of success against the Cubs, going 5-0 with a 1.24 ERA in five career starts. For his part, Kerry is just 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA, sixth lowest in the majors. He is coming off two high pitch count starts, so keep an eye on his mechanics and velocity as the game progresses.

In other news, Pittsburgh's Kip Wells may miss his scheduled start against Mark Prior and the Cubs Thursday. He developed a blister in his last start Friday in Arizona, and says he may get pushed back or may skip a start.

End of an era

On a more personal note, tonight marks the final episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer. With a premise that seems absurd to the uninitiated, Buffy managed to give us characters more real than any cookie-cutter TV doctor or lawyer. It gave us multi-dimensional villains as varied as Principal Snyder and the Mayor. It gave us gut-wrenching anguish like watching Giles walking up his stairs to a room we know holds his murdered lover's body. It gave us more startlingly witty laugh-out-loud moments than I can possibly recount.

The last few seasons haven't been quite as consistently brilliant as the first three, but even in a lesser season Buffy was still smarter and more creative than just about anything else going. I don't have the writing talent to give an appropriate eulogy, or really to do any more than continue to gush, so I'll wrap it up here. Rest in peace, Buffy. You've earned it.

posted by Scott at 6:36 AM : |

 

When you don't score, you aren't going to win

Another day, another Detroit Tigers impression from the Cubs offense as the Cardinals took the game 2-0 and the series 3-1 this afternoon in St. Louis. Carlos Zambrano pitched a hell of a ballgame, but threw away a bunt allowing Mike Matheny to score on a double play grounder from Vina. Farnsworth gave up a second run in relief, but one would have been enough as Matt Morris cruised to a complete game shutout.

There is no way to know if it would have changed the outcome, but I would at least feel better about getting shutout if Dusty would try to put out best players on the field. That's right, Bellhorn rode the pine again today in favor of starting third baseman Lenny Harris (.592 OPS). What's worse, he didn't even get the call when we needed a pinch-hitter because Tom Goodwin (.313 OPS) was deemed to have a better shot at coming through. In other news, Hee Sop Choi struck out in all three plate appearances and will therefore most likely be benched for the next month.

The lone bright spot was WGN's commentary on the strike 'em out throw 'em out DP in the eighth. According to Chris Dial on Baseball Primer, Edmonds cried to the umpire because he pulled up on a hit and run, then was tagged out easily when the appeal of the checked swing earned a strikeout. Chip Caray commented "[Edmonds] is the whiniest guy in the league," and Stoney added "well, maybe not the worst, but he's in the top two." I am going to choose to see that as a shot at LaRussa, but no matter who is #1 in Stone's book I can't argue with #2.

The trip continues tomorrow night in Pittsburgh. There's no better time than the present to start a new win streak.

posted by Scott at 3:40 PM : |

 

Cards 6, Cubs 3

The Cubs clawed their way back into a game they could have been blown out of, but in the end the Cards defense trumped the Cubs this afternoon in St. Louis. Shawn Estes gave up three in the first but bounced back to hold the Cardinals scoreless for the next four innings. The Cubs got one back in the second on a double from Choi, and two more in the seventh with a 6-4-3 DP saving the Cardinals from more damage.

St. Louis came right back in the bottom of the seventh to retake the lead when Alfonseca couldn't get a grip on a Pujols tapper despite having 20% more fingers than the average fellow to do it with. The next batter homered for a 6-3 lead and that was it for the Cubs.

After a strong showing against Milwaukee pitching, the Sosa-less Cubs offense has now managed 13 runs in their last 44 innings of baseball, or about 2.6 runs per nine innings. The team's pitching is good, even very good, but not so good that we are going to maintain a grip on first without scoring some runs. Today's lineup was less impotent than some Dusty has gone with lately, but I was disappointed to see Bellhorn benched for the second consecutive day despite his big homer last night. I also wonder why we are using a pinch-hitter to replace the best hitter on the roster (Choi). We always need our best hitters getting as many at-bats as possible, and its even more important as long as Sosa is out of the lineup.

Dennis will be back tomorrow morning with a preview of the final game in the series.

posted by Scott at 5:33 PM : |

 

The Bellhorn Redemption

Tony LaRussa was ejected from today's game for excessive whining.

Tim McCarver might have thought it was "not a good AB," but Mark Bellhorn's 3-2 ninth-inning pinch-hit game-winning homer looked pretty damn good from where I was sitting. Mark Prior kept the Cardinals off the board until Moises Alou was able to give the Cubs the lead with an RBI double in the eighth. Albert Pujols finally got to Prior with a homer in the eighth, but Bellhorn saved the day in the ninth and the Cubs had their fifth win in six games on the road trip.

Despite not getting the win, Prior was the star of the day. He singled in his first two at-bats and doubled and scored the first Cubs run in the seventh. He also got out of a man-on-third with one out situation in the fourth and a bases loaded jam in the sixth.

Tomorrow, Shawn Estes (4-3, 5.08) tries to keep his recent run of success going against Jason Simontacchi (1-3, 7.41). Its a tough matchup for Estes as the Cardinals have destroyed left-handed pitching this year. With Matt Morris looming on Monday, the Cubs could really use a win.

Keep an eye out for our "Number of the Day" on the left hand side of the page. We'll try to highlight some fun Cubs numbers that you might not have been aware of. Suggestions for NOTD's are always welcome too.

posted by Scott at 4:59 PM : |

 

Cubs streak ends; Vina, Drew pace Cards to win

The Cubs suffered their first loss of the road trip tonight, 7-4 at Busch Stadium. The offense managed as well as anyone has against Woody Williams, but hamstrung with a tired pen from yesterday's marathon the Cubs were unable to rein in the Cardinal bats. Matt Clement surrendered seven runs, the fourth consecutive start where he has given up five or more, higlighted (or lowlighted) by a mammoth 514 foot shot from J. D. Drew. Todd Wellemeyer managed two perfect innings in relief.

Mark Prior (5-1, 2.13) takes the mound for the Cubs tomorrow facing Brett Tomko (2-2, 4.25). Tomko was the Cardinals pitcher from the rainout last Sunday, so perhaps the Cubs can repeat some of the pounding they put on him in that non-game.

posted by Scott at 1:31 AM : |

 

Don't change that underwear; Cubs streak reaches five

Corey Patterson took good old Brooks Kieschnick out of Miller Park in the seventeenth inning to end a game that kept office workers like me riveted for four hours and forty-two minutes this afternoon. Kerry Wood was dominant for seven innings, but Alfonseca gave up his first run since returning from injury to tie it in the eighth. The Cubs took the lead again in the tenth, but a small strike zone helped the Brewers tie it off Borowski in the bottom half.

Six scoreless innings followed until Corey's blast put the Cubs up 4-2. Todd Wellemeyer, called up from Iowa when Sosa hit the DL, struck out all three men he faced to close it out and secure the four-game sweep. Those of us at the mercy of the cable company's neutered version of the Extra Innings package didn't get to see it, but Dennis tells me Wellemeyer punctuated the final strikeout with a unmistakable M-F-bomb (of exaltation I presume). I realize it's only May 15th, but would I be wrong to be feeling a bit of excitement?

With all the good feelings winning a game like this brings, I wouldn't be my whiney unlikable self if I didn't have some complaints. First off, after 141 pitches Saturday I think we were all hoping for a 10-0 lead that would let Baker get Kerry out after five innings and maybe 75 pitches. Obviously that didn't happen, but it still would have been nice to see Kerry kept to not much more than 100. Second, parents everywhere were shielding their children's eyes lest they be forced to witness Dusty's lineup today. Today's starters included such luminaries as Troy O'Leary (in for Sosa), Lenny Harris (in for Bellhorn), Ramon Martinez (in for Grudz), Eric Karros (in for Choi despite the righty starter), and leadoff man Tom Goodwin (in for no discernible reason.) I like the fact that Baker mixes in some bench players to keep them in the flow of things, but eliminating so much of your offensive punch in one game is a killer.

The road show arrives at Busch tomorrow night as Clement (2-4, 3.95) takes on Woody Williams (4-0, 1.84.) Let's see if Matt can keep the ball in the yard and keep the good times rolling.

posted by Scott at 10:36 PM : |

 

Cubs plaster Brewers, 11-5

When I used to imagine Brooks Kieschnick hitting homers in Cubs routs, I didn't really picture him doing it as a Milwaukee pitcher. Nonetheless, it was a great start to the Central Division Death March as the team managed to put up eleven runs even without Sosa's presence. Grudzie was on base five times, and Moises chipped in seven total bases to pace to offense.

Mark Prior had his worst start of the year surrendering his first two homers of the season and a season-high in walks (four), but he did strikeout eleven so I am not too worried. I wouldn't have had him running his pitch count up to 124 in a sixth inning where the Cubs already had a 10-4 lead, but in the shadow of Kerry's 141 pitches Saturday its tough to get real worked up about it.

Shawn Estes faces ex-Cub Ruben Quevedo tonight. Quevedo, who has supposedly lost a lot of weight (I'll believe it when I see it), will be making his second start since getting recalled from AAA Indianapolis last week. He was solid but not overpowering both against the Mets last week and in his five starts for Indianapolis.

posted by Scott at 10:20 AM : |

 

Oh my darling, Matt Clement

As I write the Cubs sit at 20-16 with St. Louis and Houston tied a game and a half back and Cincinnatti sitting two back. Most pre-season observers agreed that whatever playoff aspirations this Cubs team had were rooted in a strong performance from the starting rotation, particularly the big three of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Matt Clement. So far, they have generally produced as hoped. Prior leads the league in ERA, is fourth in batting average allowed, and is third in strikeouts. Wood is eleventh in ERA, eighth in batting average allowed, and second in strikeouts. Clement is 37th in ERA, third in batting average allowed, and 24th in strikeouts.

Generally speaking, the trio's performance looks solid so far. However, yesterday's aborted slugfest gives pause- after all, its not often a healthy, top-flight pitcher gets nuked for eleven earned runs. Borrowing from Voros McCracken's work, let's take a look at Clement's last several seasons focusing on his strikeouts, walks, and homers allowed as percentages of batters faced:

Year	K%	BB%	HR%
1999	16.8	10.7	2.2
2000	18.1	13.3	2.3
2001	17.6	11.2	2.0
99-01 AVG	17.5	11.7	2.2
2002	25.1	9.9	2.1
2003 YTD	19.8	10.2	4.0

Let's also throw in his line from this year if we count the innings from yesterday's game:

Year	K%	BB%	HR%
2003*	19.7	9.9	4.9

Clement's improvement last year was almost entirely a product of his vastly improved strikeout and walk rates. His HR% stayed very steady from 1999 right through last year. 2003 however has been a very different story. While his walk rate has been very similar to 2002's, his strikeout rate has dropped back near the 1999-2001 level. Scariest of all, his homer rate has gone through the roof. That 4.0% (or 4.9% counting yesterday) is huge- National League pitchers as a group are coughing up longballs at a rate of about 2.6% for the year. If he continues at this pace, it is very likely to be reflected in a ballooning ERA and falling win percentage.

I don't have a scout's eye or access to the clubhouse, so its tough to say what is wrong with Clement. It is still fairly early in the season, so there is some chance that his performance to date is just an aberation that will disappear as the sample size grows. Still, I think the most likely explanation is a mental or physical problem of some sort. He did report some back spasms earlier in the year, but the official word was that they had passed. Whatever the reason, Clement's propensity for giving up the longball is something to keep an eye on as we head out on the long road trip and beyond.
posted by Scott at 2:50 PM : |

 

Paging Dr. Andrews to the white courtesy phone

Kerry entered the seventh with 112 pitches today. He hit Fernando Vina with his 136th pitch of the game, and is now facing Orlando Palmeiro. If this were game seven of the World Series, there might be a reason for this, but in early May there is no excuse. Even if we assume he is at no additional risk despite the Tommy John surgery we all remember, he is just 25 years old.

All right, he finally got out of the inning on his 141st pitch. Today, May 10th, 2003, Dusty Baker officially goes on my list.

Oh, and Sosa is on the DL for the next fifteen days. At least. Joy to the world.
posted by Scott at 4:25 PM : |

 

For want of a nail...

If you are watching the game this afternoon, you know Sammy had to have a nail removed on his big toe today. On the pre-game show Dusty told reporters that he has seen guys suffer other more serious injuries as a result of a foot problem so they are glad to be getting it fixed. Right now, they think Sosa will be out for around five days. The Cubs offense is facing a mammoth task to put runs on the board with Sosa out of the lineup. I hope to see Choi in there for as many games as possible with Sosa out, as I believe he is the only other hitter we have who can pose a real problem for opposing pitchers. Troy O'Leary has replaced Sosa both in right and in the #3-hole today.

One encouraging bit of news for our offense is the decision to put Mark Bellhorn at the top of the order today. Dusty said that he went fishing with a friend who alerted him to the fact that Bellhorn hit well in the leadoff slot last year. Checking the numbers, Bellhorn hit .274/.389/.542 in the leadoff slot, not that much different than his overall .258/.374/.512, but who am I to complain? Our other leadoff options this year have been Grudz (27 games), Patterson (5 games), and Goodwin (4 games), and I think Bellhorn is comfortably my choice over any of those three. Bellhorn has already struck out on four pitches in his first at-bat (although he at least took three of those pitches), but I hope Dusty will stick with it at least for the duration of Sosa's absence. It would be nice if he had come to that conclusion on without having to have it pointed out to him by a layman, but whatever works!

posted by Scott at 2:47 PM : |

 

Postcard from first place

There is an article in the Sun-Times this morning about the Choi/Karros platoon. The first base situation has become a bit of a litmus test for Cubs fans as we do our personal evaluations of the new manager. I have heard opinions ranging from "Karros should get 80% of the at-bats until Choi proves something" to "Choi should start every game."

When your team has been saying "wait till next year" for nine-plus decades, it is easy to focus on the future to the exclusion of all else. I know I have spent an awful lot of time looking forward to the Hall of Fame careers of Ty Griffin, Brooks Kieschnick, Mike Harkey, et al, and in retrospect I might have been better off directing that attention elsewhere. That said, I am firmly in the Choi camp. By hitting a homer every 18 minor league at-bats and posting .400+ OBPs at Lansing, West Tennessee, and Iowa, Choi has confirmed that he is likely to be an above-average major league first baseman with a shot at being a perennial All-Star caliber player. The question I like to ask in regards to any player is "what kind of contribution is he likely to make to the next Cubs World Series championship?" I think Choi stands as high in regards to that question as anyone including Sosa, Wood, and Prior.

In the Sun-Times article, Karros says Baker has told him "you're going to play against lefties and the righties you do well against." Despite Karros's admittedly strong start, I see very little hope that he will hit at an adequate level going forward. I think our best bet right now at first base on any given day, regardless of the opposing starting pitcher, is Hee Sop Choi. Still, I acknowledge that the benefit Choi gives over Karros when facing a southpaw is probably not very large.

The thing that really worries me is not so much what we get this year, but what we get in the future. Choi has had only twelve plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this year. If he is going to develop into the All-Star level player he can be, he absolutely must get more than two PAs per week against lefties. Regardless of how he hits them now (and he has a double and six walks in his twelve PAs this year), Baker needs to give him every opportunity to gain experience against them. I have visions of the Cubs hampering Choi's development like the Braves did to Ryan Klesko a few years back. I sure hope Choi's first All-Star game is as a Cub and not a Padre.

Cubs vs. Cardinals
The Cards are coming off a rough series in Cincinnati where they fell victim to two walk-off homers and a three-home run game from that noted slugger Aaron Boone in a sweep by the Reds. They send two very strong pitchers to the mound in Matt Morris and Woody Williams Friday and Saturday, and close with the less scary Brett Tomko on get-away day. All three games are in the afternoon and the first two are available on Extra Innings for those of you who like me and not local. Hopefully Sosa will bust out and we can keep the St. Louis tailspin going.

Euro-madness
I heard on the radio this morning that apparently today is "Europe Day," a holiday said to be "very much like the Fourth of July." I suppose they are welcome to their holiday, even if one of those is a holiday recognizing the birth of a nation founded on the idea that human beings have inviolable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness while the other is a holiday recognizing the birth of a bureaucracy to open markets to imports and reduce money spent on customs officers. What gets me though, is what those wacky Europeans are doing with their continental anthem. They have been using the fourth movement of Beethoven's 9th symphony for the last 17 years, but apparently that's not good enough. No, they are holding a contest to write new lyrics for Beethoven's 9th to more properly extol the virtues of Europe.

This never would have happened if Alex was still around. Can you imagine what would happen if we tried to pull of something similar? If we decided the new mascot of the United States was going to be Michelangelo's David, but with a leather jacket and different hair, the Euro-snobs would have a collective tantrum the likes of which has never before been seen on this earth. I mean really, new lyrics for Beethoven's 9th... its just the corniest thing I have ever heard of. I am feeling much better about the chrome pickup trucks we used in the opening ceremonies at the Olympics in 1996.
posted by Scott at 10:27 AM : |

 

My Life in Crime

Like a lot of kids, baseball cards were a big part of my youth. From the time I was six years old up until 1993 or so, the major reason I wanted to go to college and get a good job is so I could somehow manage to scrape together $20 and buy a cardboard box of wax packs of baseball cards. I honestly foresaw a life where I would get my paycheck on Friday, cash it, pay the bills, and take the remainder down to the drugstore to buy packs of baseball cards. Oddly, right around the time I got a job (cashiering at Kroger), the hobby lost a lot of its appeal for me.

I am tempted to take this space to bitch about what happened to the baseball card hobby. I am tempted to take the podium to complain about all the myriad companies that started churning out several sets each every year. I am tempted to complain about how they would put fewer and fewer cards in more and more expensive packs. I am tempted to shake my fist at the sky, but I think I would rather share the story of my first baseball card. I hope you are entertained.


My first baseball card was a 1982 Donruss Fergie Jenkins. I was five years old and with my father at Eckerd's drugstore. I didn't know a lot about baseball, but I did know that my father liked the Cubs and therefore I liked the Cubs. While we waited in line at the checkout I spotted a pack of baseball cards, torn open, and strewn across the shelf. Sitting on top was none other than Fergie Jenkins. I didn't know who he was, but I did know the card said "Cubs" in the bottom left corner.

Having not read a lot of John Locke or Ayn Rand at the time, I had a less than perfect understanding of ethics. I did understand that the card was of a guy on my dad's team and therefore I wanted it. I slipped the card in my pocket and followed my father out of the store.

When we got home, I hopped out of the car and proudly showed my dad the card. He looked at it and asked me where I got it. A bolt of fear shot through my stomach. It suddenly occurred to me that taking the card might not have been the best thing in the world to do. Scrambling for a way out, I told him I had found it on the ground, right there by the car. My father told me that he thought it was a pretty big coincidence that I had found that card on the ground when he had seen one just like it lying on the shelf at the store. Clearly, I wasn't anymore of an expert on lying than I was on ethics.

As was his style, Dad didn't punish me. Rather, he explained that if I had taken the card from the store, he would have been disappointed in me. He told me that he hoped to never find out that I had taken anything that wasn't mine again. Then he let me go.

I couldn't have felt worse than I did holding that card in the front yard. I knew I had to get rid of it to make myself feel better. Looking back, the thing to do might have been to take the card back to the store, but the solution my five-year old mind came up with was to trade the card to another kid. Brilliant! I could both expunge the card from my conscience and still have a collection (such as it was).

I headed over to Ernie's house. Per neighborhood tradition, he looked through his cards until he found an equally valuable player. For hitters, value was determined by batting average (.300 good, less than .300 not good). For pitchers, value was determined by ERA. We went through his cards to find the most similarly valuable pitcher to Fergie. And that's how my shoplifting career ended and how a 1980 Topps Nolan Ryan became the second baseball card I ever owned.

Other news
Proving that good news comes in pairs, my high school buddy Robert called me while I was writing this to tell me that he is getting married in June. Fortunately, he was thoughtful enough to schedule it (at his house in Pittsburgh) for a weekend when the Pirates are home, so I'll be checking out PNC Park. And going to the wedding, that too of course. Rob always claimed to hate Atlanta when he lived down here in Clayton County, Georgia, and yet the Pittsburger goes and marries a girl named Tara who has a son named Clayton. I guess some people just can't face their true selves. Congratulations anyway, Rob!

Also, I was delighted to read today that the first two seasons of a little show called Saved by the Bell will be coming out on DVD in September. Sigh. What would a column about my childhood be without a mention of my one and only dream girl, the radiant Kelly Kapowski? With SbtB being released, Homicide:LotS being released shortly, and several seasons of Buffy and Angel already on my shelf, life is looking better every day. If only the powers that be would give me my one little season of Freaks and Geeks I could finally have everything I ever wanted. (Since I am sure the Cubs are going to win a World Series without divine intervention any day now.)

Nice game for the pitching staff today. Estes was living by two true outcomes, walking five and striking out seven. Alfonseca looked good, although it was a little odd to see him pitch on a third consecutive day after an injury. Although all the scoreboard watching is a little premature, I would be lying to say I wasn't looking forward to the Cardinals series this weekend with a little more interest. Let's get a sweep over those bums and open up a bit of a gap.
posted by Scott at 6:44 PM : |

 

Never too early for the All-Star Game

Only in the Seligverse would one ensure that a "Classic" remains just that by making a bunch of changes to it. You have probably heard that the pennant winner from the league that wins the all-star game will receive home field advantage in the World Series, but that is not the only change Bud has on tap. Let's break them down, and give Bud a score from +10 to -10 for the impact each change will have on the game:



Winning league gets homefield advantage in the World Series- This is an immediate reaction to last year's Tiegate in Milwaukee. It seems likely to give a bit of a boost to league identity for players and fans, something baseball sorely misses since the advent of inter-league play. It will presumably encourage everyone to treat the game a bit more seriously as well. Of course, this could have been accomplished much more simply with a directive from Selig to the managers telling them to not substitute quite so wildly and instead have the game run more like All-Star games ran in the 50's or 60's. Furthermore, the World Series is a battle between two teams, not two leagues. Linking the initial conditions for a series between the Yankees and the Cubs (I can dream) to the outcome of a game between the Junior and Senior Circuits is a little nonsensical. Still, I don't see where it will do any real harm so let's say +2 Bud points.



Rosters increase from 30 to 32 players with a minimum of eleven pitchers- A horrible decision, bloating already swollen rosters by an additional two players. This is another reaction to last year's fiasco, but it presumes that the reason the managers ran out of players was because they weren't given enough of them. It is apparent however, that the substitution patterns are actually to blame. If Dusty chooses to use every player he's got on the roster, it won't matter if he has fifteen players or fifty, they are still all going to be gone at the end. Adding two players will do nothing to avoid ties, and will be two more marginal All-Stars wedged into an already over-stuffed game. -4 Bud points



Fans will select the starting position players as in past years, but then the Player's Ballot will determine an additional nine position players in the AL and eight in the NL, and eight pitchers in each league -- five starters, three relievers.- Just so you know, the electorate for the "Player's Ballot" is going to be made up of managers, coaches, and oh yes, players too. Thanks, MiniTrue! Anyway, I have concerns about these voters either playing favorites or simply being too focused on their own team or league to have a thorough knowledge base to base these votes on. However, since I suppose the general public is subject to the same criticisms, I don't think that's a major problem. It may be that this ballot will shed some light on how players are regarded by their peers, and I suppose that might be mildly interesting. Let's give it 1/2 Bud points.



The managers in consultation with the Commissioner's Office will select the final six AL spots (four pitchers and two position players) and eight NL spots (four pitchers and four position players)- The disparity here is a product of the DH (an extra AL player chosen by the fans) and the extra AL position player from the player's ballot. I have absolutely no idea why there was an extra position player for the AL there, but whatever. I don't care for the ominous phrase "in consultation with the Commissioner's Office." I have been upset with some manager's favorite selections in the past, but at least then you had someone accountable for them. When Bob Brenly took Damian Miller over Paul Lo Duca, I knew who to blame. I'll go with -1/2 Bud points to express my dislike for more Selig-control and to get rid of the fraction from the last item.



Well, that adds up to -2 Bud points. That doesn't really square with my generally positive feelings about the prospect of a more competitive All-Star Game, so now is the time on Sprockets when we discard my ad hoc scoring system. What the All-Star Game needs is to be treated as an important game that everyone wants to win. In the propaganda piece announcing the changes, Mike Scioscia said he plans to treat it that way.



"I'm going to manage to win," said Scioscia. "I want the game to get back to the way it was when I was a kid watching it. The pride of each league was at stake. That was what that game was all about."



Scioscia's attitude is exactly what is needed to restore the Mid-Summer Classic's luster. I'll be hoping that happens even if I know it will just result in Bud taking all the credit anyway.
posted by Scott at 2:50 PM : |