Rivals making moves

Since my last post, the Astros have used the money they saved by exporting Billy Wagner to sign Andy Pettitte to a three year deal. Pettitte has been a consistently good if somewhat overrated pitcher throughout his career. His numbers won't be helped by pitching in the erstwhile Enron Field, but he is coming off the best K rate of his career and won't have the ham-handed Yankee defense behind him any longer either. All in all, you figure he is good for 200 IP of baseball with an ERA in the mid to high threes- not necessarily worth $10.5M, but certainly a boon to the Astros chances.

Also on the Astros front, Roger Clemens has been shamelessly teasing the possibility of an unretirement. I suppose he found that eight weeks away from the game was just too much to stand. Either that or he couldn't live without the media fawning over him. At any rate, if he did return I'd expect him to be a fairly useful pitcher for them, so let's hope he takes his schtick and retires for good.

Today the news out of the winter meetings is that the Cards have sent Eli Marerro and J. D. Drew to Atlanta for Ray King, Jason Marquis, and a minor league pitcher. Despite Drew's injury problems, his stick makes him the best player in the deal. Marquis and King are guys who have worn out their welcome here in Atlanta, at least from the fans' perspective. Marquis is a young righty who has been pretty mediocre in parts of four big league seasons. He's never struck out many people and doesn't strike me as a great breakout candidate. King has been a solid reliever for four years running, but some untimely meltdowns in 2003 reduced him to a punchline at Turner Field. He'll certainly be an upgrade over Jeff Fassero as a lefty in the Genius's pen.

The Cardinals needed some pitching depth and this deal certainly helps them there. Personally, I wouldn't give up on a talent like Drew without getting a potential blue-chipper in return, but I can see where they were coming from. Still, this deal can be viewed as a bandage job on the pitching staff and not a big upgrade.

A quick note on college hoops

If you get a chance to watch my alma mater on TV, take it. Paul Hewitt's Yellow Jackets are ranked tenth in the nation and will likely be moving up again when the new poll comes out Monday. Despite having only one awkward Australian checking in at over 6'6", Hewitt's team has managed to run some very good teams right out of the gym. Every time they play you will get to see them play at a frantic pace and usually get two or three Human Highlight Film-esque dunks out of Isma'il Muhammad. Good times will be had by all.
posted by Scott at 3:48 PM : |

 

Cubs sign some mediocrities; let others go

Jim Hendry retained the services of Mark Grudzielanek and Tom Goodwin for the upcoming year. I haven't seen a pricetag for Goodwin but Grudz will make between $2.5M and $3M on a one year deal. Grudz was very good in 2003, but he will be 34 next year and the only other good year of his career was in 1999. I like to fill holes with players who are either very cheap or very likely to be good, and Grudz is neither. I'll reserve judgment on Goodwin until I hear the dollar figure, but for a low price he can certainly be a useful guy to have around. The guys eligible for arbitration who weren't offered it are Alfonseca, Estes, Guthrie, Veres, Glanville, Lofton, O'Leary, Womack, and Karros. I don't see anyone there that would have been worth the money to us, but each had at least one shining moment for us last year so I'll respectfully tip my cap as they go.

College Chaos

How hysterical is it that the BCS has produced a "national championship game" that doesn't involve the #1 team in the country? NCAA Division I college football features 117 teams which for various reasons play only a small fraction of their competitors and even then only on a regionalized basis. Many years, this one included, the regular season comes to a close with several teams playing a reasonably difficult schedule and having lost the same number of games. Choosing between three teams like USC, LSU, and Oklahoma- teams that have never played each other and have only one common opponent between any two of them- in a just manner is impossible.

What irks me even more than the lunacy of the current system for choosing a champ is the fact that I am convinced there is no reason it has to be this way. An eight team tournament to decide college football's title would put seven games on someone's television schedule, each of which would draw huge interest and ratings, culminating in a title game that would be bigger than today's BCS title game and could grow to be the second biggest event on the annual TV schedule. Its amazing to me that they can look this cash cow in the mouth and turn it down.

posted by Scott at 9:56 PM : |

 

Its the Silly Season

That's what they call summer in the news business. Its the time of the year when there's not enough real news so everyone chases silly stories. With no baseball games being played, this is our equivalent so let's go full bore. What I am trying to say is, its time for the Greg Maddux back to the Cubs story!

For twelve or so years Maddux was one of the best two or three pitchers in baseball, but those days are gone. His strikeout rate has fallen, he gives up many more homers than he did in his prime, and he rarely pitches past the fifth or sixth inning in part due to increasingly chronic back pain. All that, and yet... I'd take him as a fifth starter. Wouldn't you?

posted by Scott at 3:37 PM : |

 

Cubs sign Hawkins

Jim Hendry has signed LaTroy Hawkins for three years at an average annual value of $3.67M. Reports vary on whether the third year is guaranteed or a team option. I've commented at length on Hawkins the last couple days. I've got my doubts about Hawkins' ability to maintain the level he pitched at the last two years, but there is no denying he will make our pen deeper and more reliable. We also got him for less than he was asking ($5M per). It looks to me like when the Yankees bailed on him, Hendry was able to grab him at a more reasonable rate. All things considered, I am not unhappy with this pickup. Call me Mr. Optimism!

As Ruz points out, there will be an inevitable push from Baker and certain members of the media to have the Experienced Closer take over for Joe Borowski. Joe, having posted an ERA of 2.68 over the last two years and converting 33 of 37 save chances as closer, is of course unable to handle the role. I just hope that no matter what amateur head games Dusty puts them through, they both pitch well in whatever role they find themselves.

posted by Scott at 11:37 PM : |

 

74 Shopping Days Till Pitchers & Catchers

First off, Luis Castillo will stay with the Marlins. The deal is three years for $16M, with a fourth year option that becomes guaranteed if Castillo plays most or all of next season. It seems as though we put in a reasonable bid but didn't want to overpay for Castillo and I am fine with that. The only problem is we are still looking at Miller, Grudz, Gonzalez up the middle and that's a recipe for another season of 1-0 losses.

On the bullpen front, the Sun-Times risked their credibility today by once again printing another Mike Kiley column, but since there's not much news I'll pretend to take it seriously. He reports that Hendry is still working on LaTroy Hawkins and is also pursuing Gabe White, Ricardo Rincon, and Braden Looper. Let's look at some numbers for this quartet of relievers.

Name	T	Age	01	02	03	K/9
LaTroy Hawkins	R	31	76	208	248	7.5
Braden Looper	R	29	119	127	109	6.2
Ricardo Rincon	L	34	160	109	131	7.6
Gabe White	L	32	83	148	107	6.2

The table includes each pitcher's ERA+ (where 115 represents a park-adjusted ERA 15% better than average) for the last three seasons as well as their average K/9IP over those three years. Obviously Hawkins' fat numbers the last two years stand out. Each of the other three has been respectable, with Rincon standing out as a bit better than the other two. None of these guys are young, but none are particularly old either and age is less of a problem for pitchers than hitters.

Disregarding salary, I'd probably rank these guys Hawkins, Rincon, Looper, White. White's low K rate and middling performance scare me, and I expect Looper (because of his stuff and his age) and Hawkins (because of those gaudy ERAs) to command more money than they are worth, so I'll root for Rincon to ply his trade at Wrigley next year. Acquiring him would have the added benefit of giving Dusty a lefty who actually gets lefties out so he won't have to throw righty-killer Remlinger out there against them.

Of course, things may not be the way Kiley portrays them. The New York Times reports that after signing Flash Gordon the Yankees are after White, Felix Heredia, and Paul Quantril. They do not mention Hawkins, and in fact I can't find a mention of Hawkins in the Times since they mentioned him as an alternative to Gordon two weeks ago. If Kiley's got his facts wrong (perish the thought), we may be signing Hawkins any day now due to lack of Yankee interest.

posted by Scott at 8:56 AM : |