Once step forward, one step back

It would be a lot easier to write about the Cubs if they would give us a lengthy streak of some sort. Plot-based writing is supposed to have some kind of narrative flow. Events occur, the plot moves forward, it builds to an exciting climax, and everyone either dies or lives happily ever after. Not so with our team. We just run in place. Unfortunately, our competition isn't bound to be so stagnant.

This is all a way of saying the Giants used a second-inning grand slam off Kerry Wood to lead them to a 6-3 victory in Wrigley yesterday. Kenny Lofton hit his first homer as a Cub to break up Jason Schmidt's no-hitter in the sixth, so at least we were spared that indignity. The Astros and Cardinals both won, taking back the games the Cubs had made up the day before. Sigh.

The trade deadline cometh

Year	Age	EqA	ISOO	ISOS	OPS PLAT
2000	29	.236	.032	.067	+.121
2001	30	.235	.023	.113	+.164
2002	31	.236	.043	.095	+.090
2003	32	.229	.022	.087	+.029

The Cubs made another move yesterday, acquiring Doug Glanville for Lansing Lugnut outfielder Jason Franz and cash. Doug's EqA, isolated OBP, isolated SLG, and platoon differential versus lefties are in the chart on the right. Trenidad Hubbard heads to Iowa to clear a spot for Glanville. As you can see, Glanville offers little power and even less OBP-ness, so his value is mostly in his no-longer impressive batting average. He can hit lefties a little bit, and he is an upgrade over Hubbard at least. We didn't give up much in Franz (a 22-year old single-A outfielder without anything exciting on the stat sheet), so I am fine with the deal I suppose. Still, it shakes out to some small fraction of a win on paper, so I don't think its nearly enough. Jim Hendry still has six hours to the deadline, so perhaps he might have one more deal up his sleeve.

I am Sammy Sosa

I am in my third year on the company softball team, and despite a few decent hitting performances I still have a big fat zero in the home run column. I have vowed to hit one in a game by the end of next year, but I haven't made much progress toward that goal so far. I am limited by the fact that I have no speed and thus can't hit an inside-the-parker. Also, I have no power and thus can't hit an over-the-fencer. I went out and took BP yesterday afternoon, and I hit a few to the base of the outfield fence marked 300 feet. Before long some players showed up for an actual game, so we moved to the tiny field and I did manage to hit one out there. I'll mention it here if I make any progress toward my goal, and rest assured you'll get a banner headline if I ever actually get one out. I'm practicing the hop and the kiss for the camera, so I'll be ready when the moment comes.
posted by Scott at 9:43 AM : |

 

Ups and downs

If you are like me, the Cubs have had you pulling out your hair all season long. As and another thing! was discussing this weekend, it seems like every time we come through with a big win we follow it with a momentum-killing loss. The Zambrano game? Followed by a 3-1 loss. Alex Gonzalez's walkoff infield single against the Cardinals a few weeks ago? Followed by a 4-1 loss. Sosa's ninth inning homer for a 1-0 win in Philly? Followed by a 12-2 loss. Actually, it seems like more often than not, we never seem to get a streak of any kind going.

This being a blog run by a statistician and an engineer, let's take a look at the numbers and find out if we really have been prone to following up wins with losses and vice versa. Keith Karchner had an essay in SABR's "The Best of By the Numbers" that gives a method for determining what the chances of a team with a given winning percentage having a certain number of streaks is (although if you dig it up, be careful because there is an exponent missing in his variance formula.) The Cubs are 52-52. The mean number of streaks (where a streak is a run of wins surrounded by a loss on either end, or vice versa) you would expect for such a team is 53. The Cubs have had 67 such runs.

Chugging through the numbers we find that there is a 0.4% chance that a .500 team playing 104 games would have at least this many streaks by chance alone. This is well under the standard 5% chance commonly used to gauge statisticial significance. That's about one .500 team this incapable of putting a winning (or losing) streak together every 256 seasons. Obviously there are other variables at play (Wood and Prior were pitching back-to-back for a while, playing several consecutive games against the same opponent, etc), but its still interesting to me.

The Cubs get back to it tomorrow evening as Matt Clement (7-9, 4.37) takes on Damian Moss (9-6, 4.75). Moss's numbers don't look particularly good, and that's before you account for the fact that he pitches in the best pitcher's park in baseball. His overriding statistical characteristic is that he strikes out very few batters- only about one every two innings. He has been tougher on righties this year, but last year it was the other way around so it may not mean much. If you are curious, some kid named Barry Bonds has hit Clement better than any other Giant- 6 for 14 with three homers, three walks, a 1.672 OPS and only one strikeout. Of the eight Cubs pitchers who have faced Barry more than once, Kerry Wood has allowed the lowest OPS at .903. Scary.

posted by Scott at 10:26 PM : |

 

Cubs win "must-win" series

I've been kind of comatose all weekend, thus the lack of an update yesterday. I had mono my freshman year of college, so perhaps its a recurrence. Anyway, the Cubs soldiered on in my absence, losing 3-1 yesterday but coming back to win 5-3 today to take the series. The win leaves us 4.5 back of Houston, about the minimum I think most of us would have accepted at the end of this series to still feel like we were in the race.

Kenny Lofton had his best game as a Cub, stealing a base and lacking only a homer for a cycle. He was cut down at the plate in the first inning on a play I'll blame Kim for even though I didn't technically get to see it. Shawn Estes survived five innings (allowing one run on three walks, four hits, and a homer), and for once Dusty lifted him when he had the chance. Since Shawn's dark side didn't come out today, I presume it means six more weeks of Estes. We are off tomorrow before welcoming Barry Bonds and the Giants Tuesday.

Briefly, the US soccer team defeated Costa Rica 3-2 to take third place in the Gold Cup. Defender Carlos Bocanegra (whose incredibly cool Off the Ball columns have propelled him into a dead heat with DaMarcus Beasely as my favorite national team player) scored for the second time in two games, and Bobby Convey tallied his first for his country. Ernie Stewart had a rocket of a volley for a goal as well. The next big event for the US is the U-17 World Cup where a certain 14 year-old makes his debut on the world stage. Our first game is August 14th against South Korea, so you can be pretty sure I won't try to force soccer down your throat for at least the next two weeks.

Finally, I am going to go out on a limb here and say that Lance Armstrong is a good cyclist. He overcame injuries, crashes, and even the oddsmakers to capture his record-tying fifth consecutive Tour de France today, one hundred years after the Tour was first won. Not much new to say about this truest of American athletic heroes, so I'll just leave you with his quote from after yesterday's Tour-clinching time trial: "I'll be back next year, and I'm not coming back to be second."

posted by Scott at 6:51 PM : |

 

PTBNL may be better than we thought

A report in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette indicates that the PTBNL in the Lofton/Ramirez trade will be the Pirates choice from Bobby Hill, Steve Smyth, and Francis Beltran. If true, this would change my opinion of the deal dramatically. What looked like a risk-free move suddenly looks like a lot more of a win-now gamble. Given the team's current roster and place in the standings, win-now gambles don't seem too likely to pay off. Mark me down as "slight thumbs down" instead of "strong thumbs up" if this report turns out to be true.
posted by Scott at 8:41 AM : |

 

Ramirez and Lofton arrive, improved offense misplaced en route

The New Cubs made Randy Wolf look like Cy Young as Kenny and Aramis combined to go 0-8 with an error. Matt Clement was all over the place early but managed to squeeze out a quality start. As much as I like the trade, it still comes with over half the season already in the bank and the Cubs looking at a 4.5 game deficit in the division. Its way too early to be talking about must-wins, but the prognosis is not looking good if we can't put together a win streak at some point.

I am not in the mood for a lengthy update, so let me skim through my two favorite non-Cubs related topics. Lance Armstrong and Jan Ullrich finished together in the pack as Tyler Hamilton, broken collarbone and all, blew away the field to take the stage all by his lonesome. The injury- which surely would have felled nearly any other human being on the planet- at the very least cost Tyler his shot at winning the whole thing, so its nice to see Lance's fellow teammate take stage glory. Two more flat stages for the sprinters before Lance and Ullrich go head to head in the final time trial to settle things once and for all.

On the soccer front, the US came one minute away from defeating Brazil in Miami tonight before the samba squad tied it at the end of regulation and won it on a sudden-death penalty kick. Carlos Bocanegra buried a marvelous header to give the US the lead midway through the second half, but with several US players seemingly playing hurt the defense just couldn't hold out long enough. Kasey Keller played out of his mind, showing that he wants that starting keeper's job back no matter how much pub Tim Howard and Brad Friedel get.

Finally, we welcome Cubs Pundit to the Cubs blogging party. I can't wait till some other team's bloggers try to start a feud with us, because I am pretty sure we've got them all outnumbered. Dennis may seem like an old softy who sits on the couch watching reality television all the time, but if you push him too far he'll bust out the kung fu. Al Yellon strikes me as a sturdy, no-nonsense type, so we'll let him kneel down behind the other team's bloggers, have Christian and Brian Carstens distract them with discussions of roster manipulations, and finally have Wilkinson push them over. I'll assign Derek to rubber-band shooting, because really, what crack fighting team doesn't have a rubber band shooter? Our Austrian adventurer Chris is in charge of missions to foreign lands in case someone starts an Expos blog, and that guy at Weeghman Park gets a cushy desk job as a reward for calling Farnsie "Sir Tightpants." Ken has the perimeter of Wrigley Field covered so he can be our Homeland Security man. If worst comes to worst Steffens can just sue them all to death.

posted by Scott at 11:36 PM : |

 

Mitre loses in debut, but help is on the way

Walking out of Turner Field tonight I was feeling a bit down. Fortunately, my Pirates friend Robert had left me a message. I called him as I walked to the car, and once he woke up (he is a family man now you see), he asked "did you hear about the trade?" Now I can't explain this, but I immediately started thinking "we got Giles, we got Giles, oh boy we got Giles!" He broke it to me that it was just Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton, so then I didn't know how to feel until I got home to see what we gave up.

The pricetag is as follows: Ramirez, Lofton, and a small amount of cash for Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback, and a PTBNL. Bruback is a 24 year old 6'-7" right hander who had a 3.96 ERA in 19 starts for Iowa this year. Sickels likes his arm, but last year was his only really good year as far as numbers go. Sickels gave him a C+ last year, and I see no reason in his numbers this year to upgrade that. When I analyzed Lofton and Ramirez a couple weeks ago, I said they would both be substantial upgrades and worth getting if we could get them at a reasonable price. Unless the PTBNL is someone substantially better than Bruback, I think this looks like a very reasonable price. Time to get these guys in the lineup and start pecking away at the Astros and Cardinals!

The Mitre clan in full voice- Photo courtesy of me

Anyway, tonight's game wasn't much fun. I have a soft spot for guys making their major league debuts. Its the culmination of every boy's dream and perhaps the beginning of a legendary career. I was even more emotionally invested in Sergio Mitre's debut tonight since I watched the game from behind homeplate with his mom, dad, two sisters, and some miscellaneous family members I never really identified. They were great fun to be around and really giving their all for Sergio. I wish I could say the same for the Cubs defense. Tom Goodwin and Trenidad Hubbard (who stepped in when Goodwin pulled a hammy) each misjudged easy flyballs to center that turned into doubles, and when Garcia induced groundballs (his specialty), nearly every one rolled between two immobile Cub infielders.

At any rate, at least Sergio managed a base hit on the very first pitch he ever saw in the majors, and off future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux no less. The bullpen was strong again, as Guthrie, Alfonseca, and Remlinger combined for 4.1 scoreless and Remlinger managed to strikeout five in two innings. Plus, we may well have seen Lenny Harris's last start for a long time. All in all, today could have been worse. We'll be home tomorrow as Matt Clement faces Randy Wolf and the Lofton/Ramirez era begins.

posted by Scott at 12:11 AM : |

 

Just a routine 15 run outing

We are through the looking glass here, people.

In the least Cubs-like Cubs game of the year, our guys whomped the Braves 15-6. A few parts were predictable- Sammy went yard, Shawn Estes imploded, and JoBo pitched a perfect ninth to nail down the win. Beyond that though, chaos reigned. Consider:

• SAFE!

  The Cubs got a big early lead, blew that lead, then fought back to not only retake the lead but actually blow the other team out
• Tom Goodwin delivered five hits. Five!
• Lenny Harris walked.
• When the Braves loaded the bases with nobody out and threatened to finish the Cubs off early, Dusty pushed the right button. Dave Veres came in and struck out Marcus Giles, got Sheffield to pop up to short, and got Chipper Jones to ground out to first to get out of it unscathed.
• Antonio Alfonseca pitched two innings and allowed nada. When Gonzalez Bucknered an easy grounder, Alfonseca just calmly turned around and got the next guy like there was nothing to it.
• In one sequence, Lenny Harris doubled, stole third on the front end of a double steal, then tagged and scored on a sac fly. Lenny F. Harris! I mean for crying out loud, he's the slowest Lenny since Of Mice and Men!

At any rate, I can't explain what happened tonight but I was sure glad to be there to see it. There wasn't much in the way of entertaining off the field anecdotes to share. Sammy did maul one in BP that landed in the last row of the left field bleachers, kicked forty feet straight up in the air where it landed and stuck on a support beam. There was nearly a riot as people collected under the beam hoping the ball would fall. Tommorrow I'll be in the fourteenth row, one section to the third base side of home plate, so look for the tall guy in the Choi jersey. Although Sergio Mitre's strikeout rates have been low, Sickels doesn't totally hate him so perhaps he'll put a good start together. If not, maybe we can score 15 more runs.

A quick note on the Tour de France- Lance kicked ass. At the moment when all the momentum had turned against him, Lance dug deep and came out like a champion, destroying Jan Ullrich on the final climb of the final mountain stage and opening up a 1"07 lead. Credit Ullrich too- Lance crashed just before making his glorious charge, but Ullrich showed a great deal of class by allowing Lance to remount his bike without pulling away. Of course, he was only returning the favor as Lance had showed him the same courtesy when Ullrich fell two years ago. Anyway, the race is not yet over, but Lance is now back in command. Here's to our man in yellow, Lance Armstrong.

posted by Scott at 12:43 AM : |

 

Cubs take game 16-2, series 2-1

The Cubs finally broke out some lumber, and naturally it was Carlos Zambrano that was the offensive ringleader. Phlorida phenom Dontrelle Willis was the victim of the explosion, getting chased in the third. Zambrano was three for four on the day, or in other words had three times as many hits as Lenny Harris in Lenny's best game of the year. Carlos also pitched well, allowing just one run in six and a third. Sammy also crushed an upper deck homer, forcing the first ever mid-game NOTD update (it was the third stadium he owns the longest homer for this year).

Shawn Estes will face Shane Reynolds tomorrow night in Atlanta. Constant checking of the UPS tracking page indicates my road Hee Sop Choi jersey should be arriving courtesy of Wrigleyville Sports just in time for the game, so if you are going to be there look for me. My reward for suffering through an ugly Estes/Reynolds matchup was supposed to be Prior/Maddux on Tuesday, but now Mark Prior has been scratched due to lingering effects of the collision with Marcus Giles. Better to get him healthy than risk anything, but you've still got to fear for the Cubs chances if he misses any significant amount of time.

Effectively wild?

The Cubs have a rotten offense and a great pitching staff. That's the conventional wisdom, and its generally pretty accurate. Of the thirty teams in baseball, we are scoring the 25th most runs per inning with 0.488, and we are allowing the 9th fewest runs per inning with 0.489. Then again, ninth out of thirty doesn't sound that overwhelming after all. If you are counting on your pitching to carry you to becoming one of eight playoff teams, you probably ought to be better than ninth best at it.

Cubs Pitching
Category	Number	Rank
HR/IP	0.103	7th
K/IP	0.956	1st
BB/IP	0.483	27th

Accepting the DIPS conclusion that homers, strikeouts, and walks (I'll include HBP here) are the things that pitchers have the most control over, let's take a look at how the Cubs pitching staff is doing. As you probably know this is a dominating strikeout staff, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning as a team. They are doing a good if not great job at keeping the ball in the park, allowing less than a homer per 9 IP. But then we come to the walks- sad but true, the Cubs are fourth worst control staff in baseball.

Perhaps its just me, but this information came as a bit of a shock. If there is one thing I have retained faith in as I watched LFH flail away, its that at least we could rely on our pitchers. I mean, sure we have our Esteses and our Alfonsecas, but surely Prior, Wood, JoBo, et al make up for them, right?

Name	Control
Veres	188
Borowski	150
Prior	129
Clement	100
Alfonseca	93
Farsworth	90
Guthrie	86
Zambrano	79
Wellemeyer	78
Estes	76
Wood	76
Benes	57
Cruz	56
Remlinger	55
Norton	46

Here are the Cubs pitchers BB and HPB allowed compared to the major league averages for pitchers. A number over 100 represents better control than the major league average. The first thing I notice is that only three of the fifteen pitchers the Cubs have used this year are better than the major league average. Prior and Borowski have been strong across the board all year, and control is no exception. Clement is about average and even the much-maligned Alfonseca is within shouting distance too, but what of the rest of the staff? Control has been the chink in Wood's armor. Estes has been just as bad as Wood (without all those nifty strikeouts to balance it out.) Remlinger's control has been nonexistent. Even reasonably effective guys like Guthrie, (my contract obligates me to use this nickname) Dr. Tightpants, and Zambrano have had shaky control.

I don't know if the Cubs' rampant control problems are symptoms of a flaw in Larry Rothschild's approach, products of some other unknown cause, or simply coincidental. I do know that the wildness is the difference between the Cubs being a slightly above average pitching team and being as dominant as the Dodgers. Considering our offensive struggles, our pitchers will have to start finding the plate if they are going to lead us to a division title.

Anyway, I'll be back tomorrow with an in-person report from Turner Field. Maybe I can even cajole Dennis into writing something for all you Goodieheads out there. Don't forget to check out Lance Armstrong in the morning too; he stayed even with Ullrich today and in the overall standings, but the third place rider made up ground on both of them. Ullrich is likely going to beat Lance in the remaining time trial, so Lance has to find a way to build a cushion before they leave the mountains. Kick some butt, Lance.

posted by Scott at 6:05 PM : |

 

Wood leads Cubs back to .500

"You can watch a good 1-0 soccer game to get you in the right mindset for a typical 1-0 Cubs game shortly thereafter." -- Me, on this blog this morning

Well, I was nearly right. Kerry Wood dominated for his second consecutive complete game, a 1-0 win over the Marlins. Kerry was aided by several defensive gems, including back-to-back caught stealings from Paul Bako immediately after Bako replaced the injured Damian Miller. The lone run of the game came courtesy of a Alex Gonzalez sac fly after Moises had doubled and taken third on an error.

While it was a marvelous performance from Wood, I have to worry about back-to-back 129 and 130 pitch starts with an All-Star relief inning in between. I just don't see the point in risking Wood when you've got a fully rested Joe Borowksi waiting in the pen. How much better odds of pitching a scoreless ninth did Wood really have? Is that small increase (if it was an increase at all) really worth gambling with Wood's health? I really thought the organization had learned its lesson from Wood Surgery I, but its increasingly clear they didn't.

On to the part of my prediction I was slightly less than absolutely accurate about. The US soccer team thrashed Cuba 5-0 in Foxboro today. Landon Donovan tallied four all by himself, ranging from an impossibly easy tap-in off a perfect pass from Brian McBride to a sublime half-volley ripped past the Cuban keeper to the far post. Eddie Lewis continues to cross the ball brilliantly, picking up three assists on the day, and Steve Ralston continued his best run with the national team with an amazingly powerful header right over the keeper's head (yes, the ball in the picture is going so fast the keeper won't be able to move his hands up and block it.) The US will meet the Colombia/Brazil winner in the semifinals.

posted by Scott at 9:29 PM : |

 

Cubs fall below .500

My lead for this post was going to be "If I had a dollar for every time I have heard the phrase '(insert opposing starter here) has pitched an amazing game tonight,' I could buy the Cubs and release Lenny Harris myself." Then I read the AP story on last night's game and saw that Dusty beat me to it with "everybody who pitches against us looks like Cy Young, and that's not the case." I guess its encouraging that he knows Cy Young hasn't been exhumed and traded from team to team to allow him to face us over and over, but it would be nice if he would take the next logical step and realize his lineup stinks.

So anyway, the Florida Marlins defeated the Chicago Cubs last night 6-0. Matt Clement walked none but did hit three batters en route to a three-run, six inning quality start. Kyle Farnsworth gave up two homers in the seventh, but the game had been out of reach of the Cubs offense since the first Marlin run so what did it matter?

Its Kerry Wood's turn to try to win a game with zero runs of support today. It hasn't ever been done in baseball history, but that's no reason not to keep trying. Wood (9-6, 3.19) will face Brad Penny (8-6, 4.55) in a strange 6:05 EDT start. I guess they like to have time to go home and change before heading to South Beach down there. I don't see the game on my Extra Innings schedule, so I suppose Fox's blackout period will save me from the stress watching our hitters flail away seems to cause.

Its becoming increasingly obvious that Lance Armstrong doesn't have it in him to dominate the Tour de France like he has in the past, but in the first Pyrenees stage this morning he managed to tenaciously hang on for another day. Jan Ullrich pulled away from Lance in the final two kilometers, but just when Lance could have cracked and given away the lead, he fought back to finish in fourth and save the yellow jersey by a razor-thin fifteen second margin. By all accounts Lance is a decided underdog now, but if there's anyone we can count on to fight to the last mile its Lance.

Don't forget to check out your national soccer team at 3 EDT on Univision (the main Spanish channel) today. Even if you don't speak a word of Spanish, the excitement level their announcers lend will make it worth a few minutes of your time. Plus, you can watch a good 1-0 soccer game to get you in the right mindset for a typical 1-0 Cubs game shortly thereafter.

posted by Scott at 11:16 AM : |

 

Southern Swing

Tonight the Cubs embark on a five game road trip through Florida (3 games over .500) and Atlanta (+30). Then come series against Philadelphia (+13), Houston (+7), San Francisco (+21), and Arizona (+11). The Padres (-27) provide a respite, but then its Los Angeles (+6), Houston again, LA again, Houston again, Arizona again, and last but not least St. Louis (+3). All in all, its sixteen straight and 35 of the next 38 against teams over .500. The reward is a very easy looking September schedule, but unless the Cubs step up their game it likely isn't going to matter.

The trial by fire begins tonight in Miami as Matt Clement (7-7, 4.39) faces Mark Redman (7-4, 3.26). Clement has been a disappointment so far this year as he has failed to followup on last year's breakthrough performance. There have been signs of hope lately though, as he has managed four consecutive respectable starts, going at least six and a third innings each time out and never allowing more than three runs.

From the World Sports category, Lance Armstrong held on to the yellow jersey today despite losing over a minute and a half to his main rival Jan Ullrich. There are rumblings across the Tour that Lance may not have the legs to hold on this year. Tomorrow's stage is in the Pyrenees where Ullrich is likely to try to tear the yellow from Lance's back. On the bright side, the US Men's soccer team has advanced to the quarterfinals in their attempt to repeat as North American champions. We play Cuba tomorrow afternoon at 3pm live on Univision. Hopefully in about 24 hours the Cubs, Lance, and the Nats will all have marched on with flying colors.

posted by Scott at 3:57 PM : |

 

Two birds with one stone?

Rumors are flying concerning a possible deal to bag Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton from the Pirates, thus simultaneously filling third base and centerfield. Clark and Addison has a story from a Pittsburgh paper suggesting the Cubs might offer "youngsters like right-handers Francis Beltran, Juan Cruz and Todd Wellemeyer and outfielder David Kelton." Rumor on Baseball Primer has it that ESPN Radio is reporting a done deal with the Cubs acquiring the pragmatic Pirate pair for Kelton, Cruz, and cash.

Name	Year	Age	PA	OBP	SLG	EQA
Ramirez	2000	22	274	.293	.402	.232
Ramirez	2001	23	655	.350	.536	.290
Ramirez	2002	24	570	.279	.387	.232
Ramirez	2003	25	393	.328	.441	.266
Lofton	2000	33	640	.369	.422	.276
Lofton	2001	34	576	.322	.398	.256
Lofton	2002	35	611	.350	.414	.276
Lofton	2003	36	351	.338	.450	.275

On the face of it, the trade is an obvious upgrade at the Cubs two weakest positions. Lofton provides steady, solid offensive help even at 36 years old. According to the numbers in Baseball Prospectus 2003, he has played above average CF defense in three of the last four years. If not an all-star caliber player anymore, he at least looks like a clear upgrade over Goodwin in center.

Evaluating Ramirez is a little more complicated. He tore the cover off the ball at high-A Lynchburg and AAA Nashville, earning a callup in the second half of 1998. He bounced back and forth from Pittsburgh to Nashville for three years, putting up major league OBPs of .296, .254, and .293. His unrealized potential was making him a target of the boobirds in Pittsburgh, and it was around this time I told my Pirate friend Robert that we would gladly take him in Chicago if they wanted to get rid of him.

In 2001 Ramirez busted out, looking like the hitter he had been in the minors. He hit 34 homers and 40 doubles and looked to be established as a star third baseman for the decade to come. In 2002, the pendulum swung back the other way. He sprained his ankle in an April brawl, and saw his OPS fall from .907 that month to under .600 for each of the next three months. A small late season recovery still left his overall numbers low. His defense remained poor (top ten in the league in errors for the second year in a row without great range to make up for it), and the boo birds returned.

This year started out no better as his OPS dipped to .599 in mid-May. He went 2-4 on May 17th though, and ran off seven more multi-hit games in his next ten to get his OPS back up to .752. Since then he has been neither Jekyll nor Hyde, chugging along with basically average offense and his typically mediocre defense. His EQA currently sits at .266, 11th best among major league third basemen.

So with Lofton we can expect a league-average CF on offense and perhaps a bit better than average defensively. With Ramirez, we will most likely get a league-average third-base stick with a shaky glove, but we may get a very good hitter or we may get a poor one. Ramirez is due $6M next year, while Lofton is signed for just this year for around $1M. A trade for these two would be good in the sense that it improves the team at two positions. It wouldn't be good in the sense that we would be giving up one or more good prospects, taking on a significant financial commitment for next year, and (most likely) not getting a strong long-term player in return. Depending on who we were to give up, I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a deal for Lofton and Ramirez, but I don't think they are enough to put us over the top.

posted by Scott at 8:57 AM : |

 

Cubs fall, head to break at .500

The Cubs were 7-2 losers to Shane Reynolds at Wrigley last night. The Cubs offense performed its usual duty of making the opposing pitcher look like Lefty Grove, and Dusty stayed with Carlos Zambrano one inning too long. On the bright side, Antonio Alfonseca put only two runners on and allowed neither to score, dropping his ERA to 6.09. In a virtuoso performance, Lenny Harris went 1-3 raising his batting average to .171.

We head to the break in a tailspin, losers of 20 of our last 31 games. The offense is putrid, the bullpen is in disarray, the starters are overworked, and Corey Patterson is out for the season. Like many Cubs fans, I am sometimes prone to Chicken Little-esque behavior, but we should all realize that the season isn't quite over yet.

• We are three games out. Three games is a lead that can evaporate in a good weekend.
• We are behind two flawed teams- we aren't talking about having to catch the '27 Yankees here. The Astros have an aging offensive core and real problems at catcher and short. Their hodgepodge pitching staff has been beset by ineffectiveness expected and otherwise, and their best starter has had recurring injury issues. The Cardinals have their problems too, with Tomko and Simontacchi ineffective and even ace Matt Morris struggling lately.
• We have clear problem areas that can be easily upgraded. We are getting absolutely nothing or less than nothing from catcher, third base, and the fifth starter slot. We can substantially upgrade those positions with even a league average player.
• We've got Dusty Baker. For all his tactical failures, Dusty Baker remains a manager that players want to play for. With some judicious help from Jim Hendry removing guys like Lenny Harris from the equation, I think Dusty can get something out of our players. At the very least, I wouldn't expect a collapse out of the Baylor/Riggleman playbook.

So you see, all hope is not lost. Relax, enjoy the All-Star game, try to tune out all the Selig-induced "improvements," and get ready for a second-half run.

From the sports that you are completely uninterested hearing about but I am going to tell you anyway category, USA Soccer and US Postal Cycling strive on today. Landon Donovan and DaMarcus Beasely take on Martinique in another first round Gold Cup game tonight. Martinique doesn't have anywhere near the talent to hang with a team like the US, so it should be a chance to score some goals and get ready for the tougher opponents ahead. On the Tour de France front, USPS is on the road as we speak. It is a fairly mountainous stage which should be fertile ground for Lance. Hopefully the Posties can give it a strong go and build on Lance's lead.

posted by Scott at 8:45 AM : |

 

Clement , Sosa find a way to beat Atlanta

Matt Clement went eight strong innings as the Cubs stemmed the tide and stole a win from the visiting Braves. Sammy Sosa gave the Cubs a 2-1 lead with a leadoff homer in the fourth, and by the time the inning was over his teammates had chased Horatio Ramirez and staked Clement to a 7-1 lead. Sosa joined Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. as sluggers with five homers in their last five games. It must be something in the water...

Tonight, Carlos Zambrano faces Shayne Reynolds on ESPN as the Cubs try to salvage a split and go to the All-Star Break on an up note. Zambrano (6-7, 3.19) has been a bit of a hard-luck pitcher, but then again is it really hard luck when your team can't score more than three runs per game and your bullpen has a six-fingered villain who pitches and gives up three runs in every one of your games? Reynolds has been Atlanta's worst starter this year, and has been particularly shaky over the last month or so. He has been pretty good at keeping the ball in the park, but has had horrible BB and K numbers (15/23 K/BB ratio over his last eight starts). The Cubs need to show some patience and take advantage of Reynolds' weaknesses.

In other news, the US Soccer team dropped El Salvador 2-0 in the first game of their second major tournament of the summer. This is the Gold Cup, North America's continental championship. We are the defending champions, but after last summer's World Cup thrashing of our arch-rivals, the Mexicans will surely be gunning to knock us off. Last night the goals came from a typical source (the head of Brian McBride) and a less typical source (the right foot of the southhoofed Eddie Lewis. The US has a day off today before facing minnow Martinique Monday night.

Last but not least, Sir Lancealot is where he belongs: in yellow. With the 1.2 mile high L'Alpe d'Huez climb on the itinerary today, the stage was set for Lance to blow the weaker riders right out of contention. Somewhat surprisingly, he didn't dominate quite like he has in past years, but he did enough to take a forty second lead in the overall standings. Tyler Hamilton, the American rider with the broken collarbone, fought tooth and nail to stay with Armstrong despite the excruciating pain and was rewarded with a move to sixth place. Tomorrow is another mountainous stage but not nearly so punishing as today's. Go get 'em Lance.

posted by Scott at 1:06 PM : |

 

Cubs fall 9-5; Prior may be hurt

Mark Prior ran into Marcus Giles between first and second base today, flipping in the air over Giles and landing on his right shoulder. While Giles left the game with a concussion, Prior initially seemed unaffected. As the game wore on though, he was not his normal self lasting only 4 2/3 innings. As for the game, the Cubs tried to fight back several times behind the white-hot Sammy Sosa who was 4-4 with two homers and a walk. They came close in the eighth, bringing the tying run to the plate in the form of Moises Alou, but Alou was victimized on a 3-1 called strike Braves announcers referred to as a "gift" and went on to strike out. The Cubs threatened again in the ninth, so Dusty called on Lenny Harris to pinch-hit. You are never going to believe this, but Lenny didn't come through. Not only that, but he hit into a double play to boot. Wow! What are the odds?

The Cubs try to put the brakes to the nascent losing streak tomorrow afternoon as Matt Clement takes on Braves rookie Horatio Ramierez. A big effort from Clement sets up Zambrano to get us out of the series with a split which would feel like a victory after these first two games.

posted by Scott at 6:50 PM : |

 

Schizophrenic Cubs bounce back for win

Kerry Wood went all the way as the Cubs won their first series since taking two of three from the Orioles on June 10, 11, and 12. Wood allowed just three hits and three walks while striking out twelve Marlins en route to the win. Jose Hernandez hit his first homer since rejoining the Cubs three weeks ago, and Sammy Sosa hit his fifth homer in his last eight games. Dennis says Pavano's attempt to sneak the fastball past Sosa reminded him of the Hank Aaron anecdote about trying to sneak sunrise past a rooster. I can't help but think that a three-month Sosa hot streak sure would make Corey Patterson's absence hurt a little less.

On the Dusty front, Kerry cracked 120 pitches for the seventh time this year. With a four run lead in the ninth, I don't see a good reason to not use Farnsworth or Borowski, neither of whom had pitched in the previous game. Our man Ramon Martinez got the start at third against the right-handed Carl Pavano and contributed a single, a double, and a walk in four plate appearances. Lenny Harris (die, horse, die!) hasn't reached base three times in a game all year. Not once. I am just saying...

Greg Maddux faces Shawn Estes at Wrigley this afternoon in what would be a great pitching matchup if Greg Maddux was a couple years younger and Shawn Estes was Steve Carlton. This of course kicks off the second most important series of the year, behind only the two games the Cubs play in Atlanta in a couple weeks. This of course is because your loyal blogger lives in the capital of the South and is surrounded by mealy-mouthed bandwagon Braves fans. This year's Cubs/Braves games are particularly critical since the dollar I lost in a bet six months ago may be coming home if the Cubs can take at least three of the six.

Finally, mentioning Lance Armstrong and the US Postal team brought luck to the them as well as the Cubs yesterday so I'll do it again. Yesterday was the Team Time Trial, and despite claims from Spanish rivals ONCE that Lance might be strong but his team was weak, the Posties smashed ONCE in their own specialty event. The victory put Lance and his teammates in the top eight spots in the overall standings. Today's stage is the next-to-last one before the riders hit the mountains. Check out The Daily Peloton for live coverage and gems like this: The heat must be getting to some of the riders - not just physically, but mentally. Watching shirtless French men picnicking can't be good for their morale.

posted by Scott at 10:10 AM : |

 

Summer time and the living is hard

When something goes wrong it seems like everything else goes wrong shortly thereafter, and that's what its like for Cubs fans lately. Yesterday it was another gutwrenching one run loss, this time 4-3 to the Marlins. Dontrelle Willis (now 8-1, 1.98 ERA) dominated the Cubs offense after Dusty selected Russ Ortiz (11-4, 3.50 ERA) ahead of Willis for the All-Star Game. The best reporters could get out of Willis afterwards was a "you're going to have to ask him, you know what I mean?", but that didn't stop the Miami paper from playing up the revenge angle. Ivan Rodriguez (All-Star snubee) and Luis Castillo (All-Star wannabee) also chipped in back to back homers in the game.

Its not fair to keep blaming Dusty all the time since he is working with Hendry's roster, but that doesn't mean I am not going to keep doing it. Dusty went to Alfonseca in the clutch again and was rewarded with what would prove to be the tying and winning runs for the Marlins, and an ERA for AA that rose to 6.03. Also, needing a lefty pinch-hitter for Veres in the ninth, he went to Lenny Harris with Hee Sop Choi sitting on the bench. It worked out as Harris managed to draw his sixth unintentional walk of the year, but that's no excuse.

If, like me, you would like you get your mind off this fiasco of a season for a minute, don't forget that Lance Armstrong and the US Postal Team are engaged in the drive for five even as we speak. Through the prologue and first four stages Lance and the Posties are lurking eleven seconds behind the leader, exactly where they want to be leading up to the upcoming mountain stages. Today is the Team Time Trial where the team must work together and all riders take the time of their team's fifth rider across the line. The other big story on the Tour this year is American Tyler Hamilton. Hamilton broke his collarbone in Stage 1 when two riders collided in front of the pack and brought 176 other riders down with them. Hamilton, showing shocking courage and fortitude, has unthinkably continued to race despite the injury. His CSC team is seen as having a shot at the Team Time Trial today which could put amazingly put Hamilton in the yellow jersey. Check out Lance Armstrong's site or The Daily Peloton for updates.

See, aren't you in a better mood now? Anyway, Kerry Wood tries to stop the losing streak before it gets started today as he faces Carl Pavano at 2:20 EDT. We'll be back to blame Dusty for the loss around 5.

posted by Scott at 9:46 AM : |

 

Cubs fight on without Patterson

Tom Goodwin replaced Corey Patterson in center field and as the heart of the Cubs offense tonight as the Cubs tipped the Marlins 6-3. Goodwin was 3-4 with a walk and two steals, and Hee Sop Choi chipped in two hits and a walk. Choi did strike out in the seventh though, so clearly he needs another month on the bench to get his stroke back. Anyway, starter Matt Clement was revisited by the homer bugaboo, but he had the good sense to make sure the two he gave up were both solo shots. Guthrie, Farnsworth, and Borowski (aka "the good relievers") combined for 2.2 perfect innings of relief to close it out.

An interesting breakdown of some options for our outfield is up over at the Cub Reporter. My gut reaction is that we are now two or three major acquisitions away from having the firepower to contend, but as we are all Cub fans we should I suppose try to keep our chins up in the face of adversity.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, Carlos Zambrano will take on Dontrelle Willis. It looks like a great matcup, with Dontrelle getting a chance to show up Dusty for snubbing him. Hopefully our bats can back up Dusty's decision.

posted by Scott at 11:15 PM : |

 

Patterson reportedly out for the year

A brutal blow to the Cubs hopes for this year and perhaps beyond, as Corey Patterson has been diagnosed with a torn ACL and torn meniscus in his left knee. Its hard to see how this offense could survive the loss of their most productive player of the first half of the year. We'll have more on this devastating blow later in the evening.
posted by Scott at 5:28 PM : |

 

Couldn't we all use an (All-Star) Break?

I know I could, after another brutal performance by our offense today. Mark Prior hung a 2-2 curve and Eduardo Perez hit it out for all the runs the Cards would need today. The Cardinals now sit two clear of the Astros and the Cubs, and the way things look right now it wouldn't surprise me if they stay on top the rest of the way.

I think Mike Sciosia, Bud Selig, the players and managers of both leagues, the fans, and our own Dusty Baker could use a break too, after the performance they put on picking the All-Star teams. There is certainly room for different philosophies on these matters (see our takes on the rosters below), but a few of the choices made tonight defy explanation. No Pedro? No Clemens? No Frank Thomas? No Jim Thome? Instead we get Marcus Giles? Ramon Hernandez?? Mike 6.29 ERA Williams??? There's got to be a better way here people...

Last but not least, let's give Dusty a second break, because I think he may be suffering from a bit of heat stroke himself. He apparently presented a rather bizzare theory to a Trib reporter this weekend. I really don't feel like discussing the specifics right now, but I can say that this might have been a good time for Dusty to keep his mouth shut.

Seven games to go before we actually get a break though, so here's to a surprise win streak and a charge back in to contention. Matt Clement versus Josh Beckett at Wrigley tomorrow night.

posted by Scott at 9:17 PM : |

 

All-Stars at Comiskey Park and other ironies of life

Dennis and I have each endeavored to select 32-man All-Star rosters while obeying the player for every team role and staying true to our own philosophies on such matters. As you will see, he relies a bit more on present year performance while I look at past performance a bit more. We didn't worry much about injuries and we chose the starters regardless of what the fans are deciding. Blogger is forcing me to break it up into two posts, so here is the American League, with the National in the post below:

American League
Dennis Speaks	Dennis Picks:	Pos	Scott Picks:	Scott Speaks
Pretty easy one to get started. Posada has a much better OBP so he gets the nod, but I had no clue how good Varitek has been.	Jorge Posada Jason Varitek	C	Jorge Posada Jason Varitek Greg Myers	Varitek gives Posada a run for his money, but Posada has a small edge this year and a larger edge in years past. Myers has outperformed both of them, albeit in a platoon role.
Carlos has a slugging percentage 100 points higher than any other player. Sweeney gets the second nod over Giambi because he has edges in both slugging and OBP.	Carlos Delgado Mike Sweeny Jason Giambi	1B	Carlos Delgado Mike Sweeney Jason Giambi	Delgado has been a monster and is a lock for the starting spot. Sweeney's having a decent year, but there isn't much competition at first this year so he's in. Giambi has been off this year, but his resume is good enough that he slides in.
Soriano will probably win the fan vote, but Boone is getting on base more, slugging more and doing it in a harder park.	Bret Boone Alfonso Soriano	2B	Bret Boone Alfonso Soriano	Boone looked like a latter day Brady Anderson in 2001, but he had a decent followup last year and he is absolutely killing the ball this year. Soriano is a worthy backup.
Again, ARod will be the fan darling because he is more famous, but Nomar is doing everything better. He also has 12 triples so far this season. Yikes!! He is having a Patterson, Furcal, Soriano type season with a chance at 20+ in the counting stats all while batting high.	Nomar Garciaparra Alex Rodriguez	SS	Nomar Garciaparra Alex Rodriguez	If it was anyone else having this season, ARod would take the starting spot based on past performance, but Nomar's got the resume to make this year's edge in performance stand up. Plus, Nomar went to Georgia Tech, always a good tiebreaker. Don't even mention the New York guy.
I will give the nod to Blalock here because he is a fun story and he is practically even with Mueller. Koskie gets the surprise nod as the reserve. I probably should have gone with Mueller, but I am bitter he never hit like this with the Cubs. Plus Koskie is getting on base more.	Hank Blalock Corey Koskie	3B	Corey Koskie Hank Blalock	Blalock has hit a smidge better than Koskie, but Koskie has got the edge in playing time and doesn't have the advantage of playing in the best hitter's park in the AL. Mueller is close, but limited playing time makes him the odd man out.
Mora should probably get the start here, but, come on, it has only been half a baseball season which is still a small sample. I say give the start to Manny due to fame but let Melvin have his due as a deserving all star (plus, it makes the Baltimore selection easy).	Manny Ramirez Melvin Mora Dimitri Young	LF	Manny Ramirez Melvin Mora Dimitri Young	Manny's track record trumps Mora's unbelievable start to this season. Dimitri Young is, needless to say, the token Tiger.
The pain in the butt of picking an actual OF is that you get a couple of lesser knowns for center. Truth be told, Milton Bradley is having a whale of a season. His OBP is .436 and he is slugging over .510. Byrnes gets my nod over Wells due to OBP.	Milton Bradley Eric Byrnes	CF	Milton Bradley Eric Byrnes	Did you know Milton Bradley hit the only 3-2 count, bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, seventh game of the World Series, team down by three home run (Real Audio link) in the history of professional baseball?
Another freaking Red Sox starter, but a .400+ OBP and near 1.000 OPS makes me a believer. Tampa does need a representative, but Huff is having a decent season. A .900 OPS is good for a slot.	Trot Nixon Aubrey Huff	RF	Ichiro Suzuki Aubrey Huff	Ichiro and Huff have each been very nearly as good as Nixon in significantly more playing time. Ichiro gets the starting nod on speed, defense, and resume.
The Big Hurt is getting hot and posting a plus 1.000 OPS season. Edgar continues to be an on base machine and deserves the spot.	Frank Thomas Edgar Martinez	DH	Frank Thomas Edgar Martinez	I give a fairly hefty penalty for not playing a position, but these two have the numbers and the track record to earn their way on the team.
There is no way Mussina will get this start because his hot streak came at the beginning of the season and has-been forgotten, but he has the 8th best opponents OPS and has struck out 106 batters in 109.1 innings. He has only allowed 19 walks all season. A little homer happy, but good enough to be my starter. Hudson has pitched better than his wins and losses seem so he will probably be snubbed.	Mike Mussina Esteban Loaiza Tim Hudson Jamie Moyer David Wells Roy Halladay Mark Mulder	SP	Esteban Loaiza Mark Mulder Barry Zito Tim Hudson Pedro Martinez Roger Clemens	Loiaza's got no track record of all-star performance, but he is head and shoulders above the rest of the league so he gets the starting nod. The Oakland pitching staff is just amazing, as all three of their young guns are deserving of all-star spots. Clemens and Pedro are neck and neck with several other guys this year, but Hall of Fame careers count with me.
Donnelly is there to make sure the world champs have a representative. Middle men are underrepresented at times, but he has a 50/11 K/BB ratio in 42 innings and allowed only 2 ER all season. Hawkins has been pretty dominant as well.	Keith Foulke Eddie Guardado Mariano Rivera LaTroy Hawkins Brendan Donnelly	RP	Brendan Donnelly Shigetoshi Hasegawa Scott Shields LaTroy Hawkins Arthur Rhodes	I didn't pick a single closer here, so I am sure I won't see many of these picks make the actual game. Donnelly is having a freakishly dominant year though, and each of the others has been among the best at what they do this year.

posted by Scott at 1:11 PM : |

 

National League
Dennis Speaks	Dennis Picks:	Pos	Scott Picks:	Scott Speaks
Yeah, Lopez should probably start, but call it the Mora theorem of small sample size skepticism. IRod is only 4 runs below him in RARP. Lopez has most of the advantage due to power and that could come down as the season wears on.	Ivan Rodriguez Javy Lopez	C	Ivan Rodriguez Javy Lopez	Javy's power surge nearly earned him the starting nod, but he has been so awful in recent years that Rodriguez's track record keeps him on top. I really wanted to find room for the twice screwed Paul Lo Duca, but it just wasn't there.
Coors field or not, a .400 OBP speaks volumes. He is far and away the best first sacker in the league. Thome's 915 OPS is good enough to put him on the squad.	Todd Helton Jim Thome Ryan Klesko	1B	Jim Thome Todd Helton Ryan Klesko	Thome started slow, but he has been gradually heating up and with help from the Coors penalty on Helton he slips by at the wire. Klesko's your daddy, I mean, the Padre.
Vidro is getting on base and hitting with power. What else could you want? If Kent is injured, I have no problem putting Durham on the team as a replacement.	Jose Vidro Jeff Kent	2B	Jose Vidro Jeff Kent	Vidro is having a great year and remains under appreciated behind Guerrero in Montreal. Kent edges Durham on track record. I love Marcus Giles, but how on earth are voters bypassing these great players and voting for him?
Renteria gets on base more than Gonzalez. Gonzalez over Furcal is probably the hardest decision I had to make. Alex has a little more power, so he gets my vote	Edgar Renteria Alex Gonzalez (FL)	SS	Edgar Renteria Rafael Furcal	Is it really fair that the Cardinals have this much offense? Anyway, Furcal edges Gonzalez on the strength of 70 extra plate appearances.
Pretty easy to pick the players here. I went with Rolen as the starter because he plays better defense and gets on base more.	Scott Rolen Mike Lowell	3B	Mike Lowell Scott Rolen	I'll take Lowell's amazing power streak and solid defense over Rolen's track record and elite defense.
Nothing to say here over what has been said more eloquently by others. Best two hitters around at the moment.	Barry Bonds Albert Pujols Cliff Floyd Brian Giles Geoff Jenkins	LF	Barry Bonds Albert Pujols Brian Giles Cliff Floyd	Barry is king. Pujols gets the start at DH since we are in a lousy American League park. Giles deserves to be here and Floyd is the token Met.
I really don't like Edmonds all that much, but who can argue the glove and the OPS. I had no clue that Finley was having this type of season. What is it with the water out in Arizona that makes 38 year olds play like 27? I would have loved to have put Preston Wilson in here, but even his Coors inflated OPS is lower than these two. Also, even the largest Cubs bias in the world cannot get me to include Patterson here.	Jim Edmonds Steve Finley	CF	Jim Edmonds	I hate Edmonds as much as the next guy, but he's the only center fielder swinging this kind of stick. Andruw gets left off so I can take guys who are just having better years at corner slots or are their team's only reps.
Sheffield is a no doubter with a 1.000+ OPS. I will go with Walker over Hidalgo because he gets on base more and both players play in hitter's paradises.	Gary Sheffield Larry Walker	RF	Sammy Sosa Gary Sheffield	Sammy Sosa has the seventh best outfield EQA in the NL, and he has five straight years with at least a .993 OPS, and he has 300 homers since the start of 1998, and all that doesn't just vanish because of a minor injury and a little cork. Sheffield's been good too.
Schmidt's has a WHIP under one,lowest opponents OPS allowed, more Ks per innings and a 4.35 K/BB ratio. I will take that most every time. Wood and Prior are 6th and 7th in opponent's OPS and have more Ks than innings pitched.	Jason Schmidt Kevin Brown Kerry Wood Mark Prior Woody Williams Randy Wolf	SP	Kevin Brown Brandon Webb Jason Schmidt Hideo Nomo Miguel Batista Dontrelle Willis Mark Prior Kerry Wood	Brown was neck and neck with Schmidt so I took the guy with the track record. Willis earned his way on despite the limited innings, as did the virtually unknown Brandon Webb. Wood and Prior were the last two on, but it wasn't just Cubs bias I swear.
Williamson is there because the Reds need someone and Kearns was the only hitter worth even considering and he has leveled off. Borowski might seem like a homer pick, but he also has more Ks than innings pitched and 3.5 more Ks than BBs.	Octavio Dotel Tim Worrell Scott Williamson Joe Borowski Eric Gagne John Smoltz	RP	John Smoltz Octavio Dotel Eric Gagne Billy Wagner Scott Williamson Leo Estrella	Williamson is the token Red over Jose Guillen and Estrella is the Brewer over Sexson and Jenkins. JoBo would have made the team two weeks ago but he's now on the outside looking in.

posted by Scott at 1:09 PM : |

 

Another day, another way to lose

The Cubs backed ace pitcher Kerry Wood with three homers from Alou, one from Karros, and one from Sammy Sosa, yet fell to the arch-rival Cards 11-8 at Wrigley. On the third base watch, Lenny contributed even less than his usual nothing as he paired two errors to go along with a strikeout and a popout. I know I am beating a dead horse, but I am hoping it will make me feel better somehow. Anyway, the Cubs find themselves at what looks like a turning point in the season. We sit in third place, one behind Houston and two behind St. Louis. A sweep of the remaining two games in this series and we are right back in the mix. A split leaves us in a badly leaking ship but still in striking range. Losing both would put us four back of a more talented Cardinals team, and may well spell the end of the run. Oh, and today we have Shawn Estes facing Matt Morris and a Cardinal lineup that absolutely owns left-handed pitching- their .905 OPS against lefties is 64 points better than the next best non-Coors team in the majors.

Now that you are nice and miserable like me, lets try to lighten the mood a bit. Sports Illustrated has a fascinating player survey out in this week's issue. They asked every major leaguer to answer twenty questions and got 550 of them to respond to at least some. I'll comment on a few of the questions, but you should really read the whole thing as nearly every question is intriguing.

1. Who's the greatest living player?
An interesting array of responses favoring some current players, with Barry Bonds beating out Alex Rodriguez for the top spot. The best part though was Babe Ruth garnering 1.5% of the vote. I guess its reassuring that at least some players have heard of Babe Ruth, but he has been dead for half a century! On the other hand, I admit Ruth's corpse would most likely outhit Lenny Harris today so I guess I shouldn't be too harsh.

6. Who gets the least from the most talent?
With nine of the top ten answers to this question non-white players and eight of the ten answers to the inverse question white, its a depressing indication that certain racial stereotypes are alive and well. That said, congratulations to our own Kyle Farnsworth (sorry, can't use the nickname yet) for being the only white player to make the survey in sixth place with 2.8% of the vote. I am aware of some of the stories that have bounced around about Farnsworth's supposedly lackadaisical attitude, but he has an ERA under three this year as well as two years ago. Its not like he has been a Lenny Harrisesque disaster. (OK, I swear that's the last Lenny joke today.) Of course, cross-town slugger Frank Thomas came in third despite having the tenth best OPS of all-time, so it could be worse.

11- Which city has the best/worst fans?
Chicago managed to place fourth in both lists. Whatever could account for this seeming contradiction? The note at the bottom of the second question explains "Chicago finished first among AL players in the worst-city voting (19.0%) but second among NL players in the best-city voting (12.8%)." I am shocked- shocked- that the Wrigley denizens are so heavily favored to the vaunted "serious baseball fans" on the Southside. Perhaps playing in a half-empty tomb isn't all its cracked up to be, eh Sox fans?

12- Which ballpark has the best/worst quality playing field?
Wrigley comes in atop the worst field list despite being third on the favorite park overall list. I suppose that speaks to the love players have for Wrigley aside from the field, but its still no reason the Trib can't get a little better effort out of the grounds crew.

18- Who's the best manager?
Dusty waltzes to the win, beating out Joe Torre 23.6% to 18.7%. As much as we have picked on certain aspects of Dusty's tactics and decision making, the fact remains he does many things well. He is unfailingly loyal to his players, never ripping them in the media for anything that goes wrong like a certain former Cub manager so like to do. He commands respect and admiration from his team, and the surveyed players clearly respond to that. I'll keep pointing out where I think he could do better, but this is a reminder not to forget his strengths.

Anyway, check out the survey for yourself, and cross your fingers for Shawn Estes today. We'll be back with what we hope is a cheerier recap after the game.

posted by Scott at 11:04 AM : |

 

Another frustrating night

Well, another day another miserable performance by the Cubs. Led by a clueless looking Sammy Sosa whiffing three times, the Cubs couldn't score a single run for... wait a second... hold on... STOP THE PRESSES! Get me rewrite! Take two!

Another glorious victory!

Cubs win! Cubs win! Matt Clement was effectively wild, scattering six walks around a lone hit while holding the Phillies scoreless for seven innings. Guthrie and Farnsworth got through the eighth, and when Sammy tagged Turk Wendell for his first homer allowed of the year to leadoff the ninth, JoBo came on to close it out.

Tonight's outcome notwithstanding, the Cubs offense of late hasn't performed quite as well as we would like. Actually, its been awful. Lenny "F" Harris has been the whipping boy for many of our problems, but the ever-reasonable David Geiser posted a comment to the effect that Lenny was probably only costing us a win or two over the course of a full year. He is absolutely right in a general sense- most studies have agreed that even a very extreme player is worth only a handful of wins- but it piqued my curiosity to try to quantify just what the impact of the LFH on the standings has been.

Fortunately, Baseball Prospectus has already done some legwork for me. In their 2003 book and on their website, they calculate a statistic called Marginal Lineup Value rate, or MLVr. It is a park adjusted offensive measure, meant to equal the number of additional runs per game a team of average hitters would score if the player in question replaced one of the average guys in their lineup. For instance, if last year's leader Barry Bonds (.994 MLVr) replaced an average player on an average team, they would score nearly one extra run per game.

Lenny Harris is sporting a -.481 MLVr so far this year, third worst in baseball among players with at least Lenny's PA total, ahead of only Jermaine Dye and Doug Glanville. For some context, let's look at Lenny alongside Ramon Martinez (-.024 MLVr), the best third baseman in baseball this year (Mike Lowell, +.378 MLVr), and the average third baseman (-.038 MLVr).

Assuming 150 games played over a full season, Mike Lowell would be expected to produce about 57 more runs than the average hitter. Ramon Martinez would produce about four runs less than the average hitter, the average third baseman about six runs less, and Lenny Harris about 72 runs less. (Interesting to note that by this measure at least, Lenny is worse than the very best third baseman is good.)

Team	RS	RA	PW	PL
'03 Cubs	720	677	85.7	76.3
Cubs w/ Martinez replacing Harris	788	677	92.7	69.3
Cubs w/ avg 3Bman replacing Harris	786	677	92.5	69.5
Cubs w/ Lowell replacing Harris	849	677	98.1	63.9

Lets pretend Lenny has been the fulltime third baseman for the Cubs. I realize this isn't the case, but it will give us a baseline for comparison. Adding the numbers from the preceding paragraph to the Cubs projected runs scored and allowed numbers for a full season and then applying Bill James's Pythagorean Formula, we can estimate the impact that our various candidates would have on the Cubs if they replaced Lenny fulltime. As you can see, Ramon and an average third baseman would each be worth about seven wins over Lenny over a full season. The best third baseman in the game would be worth an additional six wins. Naturally this assumes everyone were to keep performing the way they have so far.

So over a full season, Ramon's bat is worth seven wins over Lenny's. If we figure a full season to be about 700 PAs, then Lenny has eaten up about a sixth of a season so far. Give that playing time to Ramon, and you get about a full win in the standings, and expect another full win if you give Ramon all that playing time in the second half as well.

All of this basically confirms what David suggested earlier, that Lenny isn't the difference between this team being what they are and being a 110 win juggernaut. However, it doesn't take many wins to be significant. The difference between the average team and a pennant might be 15 games. This isn't the kind of team that has so much talent they can afford to give away any tiny margin they have by playing LFH and his impotent friends. Two games here, two games there, sooner or later you are talking about a 57th straight pennantless year.

posted by Scott at 12:28 AM : |

 

Summer in Cubland- does the fun ever start??

The Cubs shocked their fans tonight as they uncharacteristically fell by a single run scored on an Alfonseca-allowed game winning hit. Meanwhile, indications are that Mike Lowell will not be the solution to the ongoing third base disaster. I swear to you, I am not always a pessimistic crybaby, but we aren't talking about a half-empty glass here. Its more of a bone-dry glass, riddled with bulletholes and sitting in a kiln. Dusty! Hendry! Please, someone, give us something to at least moisten our throats a little.

Matt Clement tries to turn the tide tomorrow as he faces Brandon Duckworth. Early Vegas line favors a 4-3 Cubs loss, marked by poor tactical decision making, a lousy lineup, and myriad Lenny Harris failures. Any takers?

posted by Scott at 10:30 PM : |