Rivals making moves

Since my last post, the Astros have used the money they saved by exporting Billy Wagner to sign Andy Pettitte to a three year deal. Pettitte has been a consistently good if somewhat overrated pitcher throughout his career. His numbers won't be helped by pitching in the erstwhile Enron Field, but he is coming off the best K rate of his career and won't have the ham-handed Yankee defense behind him any longer either. All in all, you figure he is good for 200 IP of baseball with an ERA in the mid to high threes- not necessarily worth $10.5M, but certainly a boon to the Astros chances.

Also on the Astros front, Roger Clemens has been shamelessly teasing the possibility of an unretirement. I suppose he found that eight weeks away from the game was just too much to stand. Either that or he couldn't live without the media fawning over him. At any rate, if he did return I'd expect him to be a fairly useful pitcher for them, so let's hope he takes his schtick and retires for good.

Today the news out of the winter meetings is that the Cards have sent Eli Marerro and J. D. Drew to Atlanta for Ray King, Jason Marquis, and a minor league pitcher. Despite Drew's injury problems, his stick makes him the best player in the deal. Marquis and King are guys who have worn out their welcome here in Atlanta, at least from the fans' perspective. Marquis is a young righty who has been pretty mediocre in parts of four big league seasons. He's never struck out many people and doesn't strike me as a great breakout candidate. King has been a solid reliever for four years running, but some untimely meltdowns in 2003 reduced him to a punchline at Turner Field. He'll certainly be an upgrade over Jeff Fassero as a lefty in the Genius's pen.

The Cardinals needed some pitching depth and this deal certainly helps them there. Personally, I wouldn't give up on a talent like Drew without getting a potential blue-chipper in return, but I can see where they were coming from. Still, this deal can be viewed as a bandage job on the pitching staff and not a big upgrade.

A quick note on college hoops

If you get a chance to watch my alma mater on TV, take it. Paul Hewitt's Yellow Jackets are ranked tenth in the nation and will likely be moving up again when the new poll comes out Monday. Despite having only one awkward Australian checking in at over 6'6", Hewitt's team has managed to run some very good teams right out of the gym. Every time they play you will get to see them play at a frantic pace and usually get two or three Human Highlight Film-esque dunks out of Isma'il Muhammad. Good times will be had by all.
posted by Scott at 3:48 PM : |

 

Cubs sign some mediocrities; let others go

Jim Hendry retained the services of Mark Grudzielanek and Tom Goodwin for the upcoming year. I haven't seen a pricetag for Goodwin but Grudz will make between $2.5M and $3M on a one year deal. Grudz was very good in 2003, but he will be 34 next year and the only other good year of his career was in 1999. I like to fill holes with players who are either very cheap or very likely to be good, and Grudz is neither. I'll reserve judgment on Goodwin until I hear the dollar figure, but for a low price he can certainly be a useful guy to have around. The guys eligible for arbitration who weren't offered it are Alfonseca, Estes, Guthrie, Veres, Glanville, Lofton, O'Leary, Womack, and Karros. I don't see anyone there that would have been worth the money to us, but each had at least one shining moment for us last year so I'll respectfully tip my cap as they go.

College Chaos

How hysterical is it that the BCS has produced a "national championship game" that doesn't involve the #1 team in the country? NCAA Division I college football features 117 teams which for various reasons play only a small fraction of their competitors and even then only on a regionalized basis. Many years, this one included, the regular season comes to a close with several teams playing a reasonably difficult schedule and having lost the same number of games. Choosing between three teams like USC, LSU, and Oklahoma- teams that have never played each other and have only one common opponent between any two of them- in a just manner is impossible.

What irks me even more than the lunacy of the current system for choosing a champ is the fact that I am convinced there is no reason it has to be this way. An eight team tournament to decide college football's title would put seven games on someone's television schedule, each of which would draw huge interest and ratings, culminating in a title game that would be bigger than today's BCS title game and could grow to be the second biggest event on the annual TV schedule. Its amazing to me that they can look this cash cow in the mouth and turn it down.

posted by Scott at 9:56 PM : |

 

Its the Silly Season

That's what they call summer in the news business. Its the time of the year when there's not enough real news so everyone chases silly stories. With no baseball games being played, this is our equivalent so let's go full bore. What I am trying to say is, its time for the Greg Maddux back to the Cubs story!

For twelve or so years Maddux was one of the best two or three pitchers in baseball, but those days are gone. His strikeout rate has fallen, he gives up many more homers than he did in his prime, and he rarely pitches past the fifth or sixth inning in part due to increasingly chronic back pain. All that, and yet... I'd take him as a fifth starter. Wouldn't you?

posted by Scott at 3:37 PM : |

 

Cubs sign Hawkins

Jim Hendry has signed LaTroy Hawkins for three years at an average annual value of $3.67M. Reports vary on whether the third year is guaranteed or a team option. I've commented at length on Hawkins the last couple days. I've got my doubts about Hawkins' ability to maintain the level he pitched at the last two years, but there is no denying he will make our pen deeper and more reliable. We also got him for less than he was asking ($5M per). It looks to me like when the Yankees bailed on him, Hendry was able to grab him at a more reasonable rate. All things considered, I am not unhappy with this pickup. Call me Mr. Optimism!

As Ruz points out, there will be an inevitable push from Baker and certain members of the media to have the Experienced Closer take over for Joe Borowski. Joe, having posted an ERA of 2.68 over the last two years and converting 33 of 37 save chances as closer, is of course unable to handle the role. I just hope that no matter what amateur head games Dusty puts them through, they both pitch well in whatever role they find themselves.

posted by Scott at 11:37 PM : |

 

74 Shopping Days Till Pitchers & Catchers

First off, Luis Castillo will stay with the Marlins. The deal is three years for $16M, with a fourth year option that becomes guaranteed if Castillo plays most or all of next season. It seems as though we put in a reasonable bid but didn't want to overpay for Castillo and I am fine with that. The only problem is we are still looking at Miller, Grudz, Gonzalez up the middle and that's a recipe for another season of 1-0 losses.

On the bullpen front, the Sun-Times risked their credibility today by once again printing another Mike Kiley column, but since there's not much news I'll pretend to take it seriously. He reports that Hendry is still working on LaTroy Hawkins and is also pursuing Gabe White, Ricardo Rincon, and Braden Looper. Let's look at some numbers for this quartet of relievers.

Name	T	Age	01	02	03	K/9
LaTroy Hawkins	R	31	76	208	248	7.5
Braden Looper	R	29	119	127	109	6.2
Ricardo Rincon	L	34	160	109	131	7.6
Gabe White	L	32	83	148	107	6.2

The table includes each pitcher's ERA+ (where 115 represents a park-adjusted ERA 15% better than average) for the last three seasons as well as their average K/9IP over those three years. Obviously Hawkins' fat numbers the last two years stand out. Each of the other three has been respectable, with Rincon standing out as a bit better than the other two. None of these guys are young, but none are particularly old either and age is less of a problem for pitchers than hitters.

Disregarding salary, I'd probably rank these guys Hawkins, Rincon, Looper, White. White's low K rate and middling performance scare me, and I expect Looper (because of his stuff and his age) and Hawkins (because of those gaudy ERAs) to command more money than they are worth, so I'll root for Rincon to ply his trade at Wrigley next year. Acquiring him would have the added benefit of giving Dusty a lefty who actually gets lefties out so he won't have to throw righty-killer Remlinger out there against them.

Of course, things may not be the way Kiley portrays them. The New York Times reports that after signing Flash Gordon the Yankees are after White, Felix Heredia, and Paul Quantril. They do not mention Hawkins, and in fact I can't find a mention of Hawkins in the Times since they mentioned him as an alternative to Gordon two weeks ago. If Kiley's got his facts wrong (perish the thought), we may be signing Hawkins any day now due to lack of Yankee interest.

posted by Scott at 8:56 AM : |

 

First base settled, second next?

The current Cubs buzz is that Jim Hendry has thrown a wrench into Florida's efforts to resign Luis Castillo. As discussed elsewhere, the Sun-Sentinel in Miami is reporting that the Cubs joined Florida and the Mets in the bidding with a "very competitive" offer. The Trib says the Cubs are denying having made an offer, but where there is smoke there is something worth writing about so here goes.

Castillo has a lot in common with new Cub Derrek Lee. In 2003 Lee had the sixth best EqA of any first baseman in baseball while Castillo's EqA was eighth best among second baseman. In 2002 they were both tenth at their respective positions. Both are fairly fast for their positions, and both are fairly well regarded defensively. Both will turn 29 next year, Lee on September 6 and Castillo six days later. Lee has been a smidge more consistent and a bit better with the stick relative to his position, so he is probably the more valuable of the two.

Judging from the reports, if we do sign Castillo it will be for maybe 10 or 15 percent less than Lee will cost. Signing Castillo would also cost a first round draft pick, while signing Lee cost Choi and a PTBNL. I think the money for each player is fair. I think Choi and the PTBNL are worth more than our 2004 first round pick and I also think Grudzialanek needs replacing for '04 more than Choi did, so I think signing Castillo would be a better move than trading for Lee was. Of course, I thought trading for Lee was a blunder.

My overriding philosophy when it comes to roster construction is that you should do anything you can to get a few elite players and then spend money judiciously to fill in the gaps with cheap role players. As we stand, Mark Prior is our only elite player. Kerry Wood is close and possibly getting better, while Sammy Sosa is close but probably getting worse. I think the best use of the Tribune's money would be in pursuit of a player who is at or near that elite level- someone like Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Tejeda, or (if we had a position for him) Vladimir Guerrero. There's not necessarily anything wrong with spreading money around to fill holes with B level players like Lee and Castillo, but it doesn't leave you with much flexibility to add new pieces or cope with an unexpected decline in one of those guys skills.

In summary, while Castillo isn't the move I would try to make, its not a bad move and its a significantly better move than trading for Lee. I can say with some certainty that it would make our team better over each of the next three or four years, and that's nothing to turn your nose up at.

Bucks for the Bullpen

"Excellent." -- C. Montgomery Steinbrenner

The Trib article referenced above also talks about the Cubs desire to place LaTroy Hawkins in Wrigley Field. Hawkins has come into his own the last two years after indifferent results in his first seven years in Minnesota. He's posted ERAs of 2.13 and 1.86 the last two years, and after mediocre strikeout numbers in the past has begun to whiff some hitters (7.1 and 8.7 K/9IP the last two years after a career 5.1 K/9 through 2001).

While he is no sure thing, he certainly seems likely to provide some good innings out of the pen if the Cubs were to acquire him. One problem- the Trib says Hawkins is looking for $15M over three years. Paying that kind of money for even a dominant reliever would be risky; shelling it out for a guy with a couple of good years and only fair peripherals would be like Russian Roulette. Let's hope Crazy George saves us from ourselves.

There goes the neighborhood

Finally I'd like to welcome a new recruit to the Cub Blog Army: Alex Cieply of ball talk. I'd also like to welcome the until recently AWOL Forklift Cubs Blog. Both have been active the last few weeks, so pop over and see what they have to say. Also, don't forget to write the commisioner in support of my plan to allow the team with the most bloggers a bye into the World Series next year. If we can get him to agree, I like our chances...
posted by Scott at 10:07 PM : |

 

I still don't like it

Both on my mailing list and from people like Ruz at the Cub Reporter, I am reading the argument that Choi for Lee is a good deal if you take in to account the fact that Dusty wasn't going to give Choi a chance anyway. I guess I can see the logic there, and its not like we haven't seen that argument back when Hendry dumped Bellhorn. Ultimately though, the argument holds no water with me. Taken to its logical extreme, it would indicate that trading Babe Ruth for Mike Mordecai was a good move if you had a manager that refused to play Ruth.

Many analyses also seem to ignore the fact that we are trading several years of Choi for one year of Lee. A few mention that we should sign him to a long-term deal, but that is a separate issue. Choi is only netting us one year of Lee; future years could have been acquired on the free agency market without giving up players. Again, Lee is a good player and probably an upgrade for 2004. I just don't see any way that one year of Lee is worth $6M and a PTBNL and several years of Choi.

The Cub Blog Army is continuing to weigh in, as well as the "experts" in the Chicago media. Here is a roundup:

• Let's Play Two (marginal thumbs down)
• The Cub Reporter (thumbs up)
• Clark & Addison Chronicle (thumbs up)
• Cub Fan Nation (thumbs up)
• and another thing! (thumbs in the middle)
• Cubs Transaction Report (Siskel up, Ebert down)
• The View From the Bleachers (thumbs up)
• Mike Kiley (thumbs up his...)
• Jay Mariotti (thumbs up)

I guess the best argument I can make against the trade is that Mariotti and Kiley are united in favor of it. Let's hope time proves me wrong.
posted by Scott at 8:22 AM : |

 

Cubs swap Choi and minor leaguer for Derrek Lee

Chris Yarborough called and woke me up a few minutes ago to tell me that the Cubs have sent Choi and a PTBNL to Florida for Derek Lee. Lee is a decent ballplayer. He turned twenty-eight in September and posted his third OPS in the high .800s in four years. Like Choi, he runs well and has a good glove. He is durable (his 155 games played last year was his lowest since 1999) and probably has several good years left. That's the good news.

Now here's the bad news. First, Lee is right-handed. This gives the Cubs righties starting at seven of eight field positions and that's assuming Patterson is able to come back in center. Second, Lee made $4.25M last year, will likely get a raise for 2004 in arbitration, and will be a free agent after next season. In making this deal, the Cubs have swapped three or four years of a cheap Hee Sop Choi for one year of a moderately expensive Derek Lee.

For 2004, I think this deal is likely to be a small boon to the Cubs. We give up a guy whose 90th percentile performance for '04 was a line of something like .275/.410/.525 and whose 10th percentile was maybe .210/.340/.400, and replace him with a reliable .270/.370/.485. We take on $4-5M, but hey, its not my money. The real problem with the deal is that the Marlins have a cheap Hee Sop Choi for 2005, 2006, etc, while the Cubs have absolutely nothing to show for it after next season. This is a deal that at best will be a small gain for the Cubs, and at worst could be a Lou Brockian disaster.

I don't think my negative reaction is solely a product of the fact that I bought a Choi jersey earlier this year, but just in case I'll be back later tonight or tomorrow with some more fleshed out thoughts on the deal. In the meantime, check out Let's Play Two (marginal thumbs down) and The Cub Reporter (thumbs up), each of whom already have comments up.

posted by Scott at 7:22 PM : |

 

MLS Cup 2003, and a New Hope

The San Jose Earthquakes upset the regular season champion Chicago Fire 4-2 to take the MLS Cup yesterday afternoon. San Jose's Landon Donovan was the MVP, coolly finishing two chances and generally looking dangerous all game long. Chicago was viewed as a fairly heavy favorite coming in, and I felt they controlled most of the game, but they let a number of chances slip through their fingers while San Jose converted the majority of theirs. Chicago's Ante Razov hit the top left corner of the frame with one shot, whiffed on two he could have tapped in on the goal line, and had a penalty kick saved. Damani Ralph, Chicago's rookie of the year forward, looked explosive on a number of occasions but couldn't find the goal mouth either.

I don't really have an MLS team of my own (just waiting for them to put one in Atlanta), so I mostly watch MLS to root for our US national team players. This game featured two of the best in Donovan and DeMarcus Beasley (who scored Chicago's first goal with a rocket over the keeper's shoulder.) As youth players they teamed up to lead the US to a fourth place finish in the U-17 World Cup. Despite not making the final, they impressed observers so much that Donovan was awarded the Golden Ball as best player in the tournament while Beasley received the Silver Ball as the second best. They shined again in last year's World Cup, as Beasley started three games while Donovan started all five and scored twice. I am partial to Beasley since he wore #17 at the World Cup and also because I tend to like underdogs and Donovan seems to have outshined him by just a bit so far in their careers. Still, both will be playing together with the national team for years to come and I can't wait to see it.

Of course, the championship game of the domestic soccer league was the sidebar to the real US Soccer news as Freddy Adu signed with MLS. If you own a TV, you probably saw him as he bounced from Letterman to MTV to CNN last week. Heck, even Grandma (89 this month) saw him on Letterman and told me how impressed she was with his demeanor. Its a huge deal for MLS, as it gives them several years of perhaps the greatest American soccer player we'll ever produce before he (if he lives up to his potential) inevitably moves to Europe.

So for those of you who don't follow soccer, here's the scoop on Freddy. First, some still question whether he is really 14. I guess with the Danny Almonte fiasco in recent memory its understandable to wonder. What we know for sure is that his birth certificate from Ghana says he is 14. If it isn't true, then someone would have had to file false information on that certificate with nothing apparent to gain from it. I guess anything is possible, but with no clear motive for fraud I tend to believe he is 14.

Second, you should know that his talent is most assuredly real. Rumors of his genius bounced around the message boards for the last few years, but we finally got to see him against some real competition in qualifiers for the U-17 World Cup and then the in the U-17 WC itself. Its rare that someone that hyped lives up to it, but he did and then some. He ripped shots into the netting from all angles and slalomed through entire defenses ny himself on at least two goals I saw with my own eyes. He had a hat trick in his first game in the U-17 WC and was easily the most talked about scoring threat in the tournament.

Finally, you should know what his future holds. Of course, its way too early to answer that. I see Freddy as a pair of aces in a game of Texas Hold 'Em. You aren't guaranteed to win the hand, but there is no better place to be after two cards than looking at pocket rockets. Maybe he'll lose his speed as his body matures. Maybe the pressure will be too great and he'll flame out. Maybe he'll tear up a knee and never play again. But the upside is the American Pele, and I'll be more than happy to be along for that ride.

posted by Scott at 11:46 PM : |

 

Back in the saddle

Like General MacArthur before me, I have returned. My computer gave up the ghost about three weeks ago, and I was without a computer at home until my new machine arrived Thursday. Its amazing how hard it is to live without the internet considering its only been around in anything like its current form for ten years or so. At any rate, I am back to blogging, IMing, and playing NHL 2004, Korsun Pocket, and the copy of FIFA 2004 I just bought. I think that should keep me occupied until at least spring training.

In my absence, the world rudely kept spinning on its axis. Baseball handed out its awards, and for once they managed to get most of them right. I don't think the voters are any more competent than they have been in the past, but for various reasons they managed to blunder into some defensible choices this year.

• NL MVP- Barry Bonds While I think Bonds was the right choice, I am a bit surprised by his margin of victory over Albert Pujols. Bonds had a handy edge in rate stats (58 points of EqA, 90 points of OBP, and 82 points of SLG), but missed a lot of time for an MVP. He had just 550 PAs, 147 less than his career high and 135 less than Pujols. The more sophisticated value metrics generally give Barry the edge, and thats how I subjectively see it as well. The only edge Barry had on Pujols from an average sportswriter point of view was the division title the Giants won, and I guess that was enough to convince most of them to vote his way.




• AL MVP- Alex Rodriguez A long overdue MVP for the man who should probably have three or four by now. He seemed to get the same share of the vote he usually gets, but there was no player who met the usual criteria to gather the votes of the hardheaded majority of voters Of his major competitors. Without a 2002 Tejada or 1996 Juan Gonzalez to rally their troops around, they split their votes among such curiosities as David Ortiz (a DH with 509 PAs and a lesser OBP and SLG than ARod) and Shannon Stewart (spare me). Kudos to ARod, and there is even a small opportunity to have him in Cub blue next year lets move heaven and earth to do it.




• NL Cy Young- Eric Gagne Like Bonds in the MVP debate, Gagne owned the rate stats but didn't spend as much time on the field as other contenders. However, while Bonds had about 80% of Pujols' playing time, Gagne pitched just 82.1 innings or less than 40% of the innings thrown by Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt. I figured Schmidt and Prior would split the starter vote and open the door for Gagne, but as it turned out he waltzed to the win. He was dominant, so I can sort of accept it, but he'd have to be nearly perfect to overcome a 130 IP deficit.




• AL Cy Young- Roy Halladay Yet another quantity versus quality argument, as Pedro Martinez managed an ERA a full run lower than Halladay's but in only 186.2 innings compared to Halladay's mammoth 266.0 IP (the highest AL total since Clemens in 1991). Its a very close call that boils down to where you set replacement level for the extra eighty innings, but I think I would have gone with Halladay.




• NL Rookie of the Year- Dontrelle Willis This was the only truly awful decision by the voters. Brandon Webb had an ERA a half point lower in twenty more innings in a tougher park with more strikeouts, a higher strikeout rate, and one less homer allowed. Its an inexcusably lazy decision from an electorate that clearly decided their vote when they saw Dontrelle's funky fresh pitching motion on Sportscenter in May. I'd be outraged if we weren't talking about the same organization that gave a Gold Glove to a DH a few years ago.

Apparently the end of this post got eaten somewhere along the line, so here's the new ending.

posted by Scott at 1:46 PM : |

 

New Computer Arrives in 3... 2... 1...

My new computer shipped yesterday and is on track to arrive tomorrow according to Federal Express. With luck, I'll be up and posting again by the weekend. It will be nice, because I have got a lot of things to get off my chest in regards to the awards voting. The stubborn unwillingness of certain voting members of the BBWA to even try to think rationally makes my blood boil. Also, the hot stove league seems to be heating up with ARod trade rumors flying and word that Matt Morris' favorite team is continuing to work on a major reconfiguration- or "business realignment" if you ask Billy Wagner for a euphemism to describe it.

Back to regular posting in a couple of days. Tell your friends! Tell your family! Tell Jim Hendry he can stop wondering what to do and start reading it right here!

posted by Scott at 8:49 AM : |

 

Scott held hostage, day 9

Nine days and counting since I have had a functioning home computer. You hear people brag about how amazing and wonderful their life is when they give up TV, but I can assure you that the same is not at all true when it comes to a computer. Aside from daily necessities like posting to the blog and paying bills on-line, there is the mind numbing loss of a daily influx of internet information to contend with. Who led the NL in doubles in 1995? I'll never know! (Actually, I do know that one, but you get the idea.)

Anyway, the one piece of good news is that my forced internet abstinence coincides with a slow time in Cubs news. One thing that has passed through my work-accessed webmail inbox is word from Kasey Ignarski that public voting for the Ford Frick award has begun at the Hall of Fame website. You can vote for up to three broadcasters from among anyone with ten years broadcast experience. While this does include the Chipster, it also includes guys I grew up with like Ernie Johnson and Pete Van Wieren as well as Cubs great Vince Lloyd who passed away earlier this year. You can vote once per day, so pop in and cast a few votes for your favorites this month.

As expected, the Cubs exercised their club option on Matt Clement for 2004. This is certainly a good move given his production, the promise of his strikeout rate (although it did fall a bit this year), and the cost of the option. The Cubs website has an article on Corey Patterson's rehab. It doesn't give a prognosis per se, but does say he is walking without a limp and hanging out with his brother across the interstate at my alma mater.

That's all for now. I'll be back on a more regular schedule as soon as Alienware gets my new computer out to me. See you then.

posted by Scott at 10:12 AM : |

 

Billy Wagner bids NL Central adieu

The Astros have traded Billy Wagner and his $8M contract to Philadelphia for Brandon Duckworth and minor leaguers Taylor Bucholz and Ezequiel Astacio. Octavio Dotel certainly looks able to handle closing duties for Houston, but their bullpen as a whole certainly looks much less formidable now. I'll post something on the minor leaguers when I get it, but I do like Duckworth's potential so it may not be a total loss for the Astros. They are getting out from a contract that wasn't outrageously expensive but was probably more than the current market would bear ($8M for '04, club option for $9M for '05 with a $3M buyout). Still, it has to be a postive that one of our two most formidable opponents in the central is shedding payroll and elite talent.
posted by Scott at 1:32 PM : |

 

Miscellaneous Cubs Roundup

I come to you from my 8' x 8' cubicle on the eighteenth floor of the Georgia Power building in beautiful downtown Atlanta, Georgia. I am posting from here on a Sunday afternoon in part because my computer at home is in its death throes. It is taking 15-20 minutes to start up when I turn it on or restart it, and it has somehow removed all my setup network connections and prevents me from creating any new ones. A non-internet-able computer is about as useful as Lenny Harris off a major league bench, so I guess its probably time to buy a new one. I just hope I can find a way to salvage some of the files I have on it.

At any rate, as long as I am here let's run down some Cubs news from recent days. First off, Sosa is not opting-out and will remain a Cub for the next two years. In a market where Manny Ramirez is placed on waivers and claimed by precisely noone, this was a no-brainer for Sammy. Derek of Let's Play Two has already pretty much crystallized my thoughts so read what he has to say. Sosa's still our position player and hating him for his imperfections isn't going to change anything. Try to relax and be glad that we've got Sosa for a #1 stick and not the alternative (Alou? Aramis?).

On the medical front, Ron Santo had his bladder removed and is said to be in good shape after a successful surgery. Although its tough to imagine going through life carrying an artificial urine bag on your person, they say people do it and live relatively normal lives all the time. Goodness knows if anyone has the fortitude and spirit to handle it its Ronnie. He still expects to be in the booth next year, so here's to a World Series win called by the Cub great.

On the free agency front, Eric Karros announced his free agency with a classy ad in the Trib. He joins Grudzielanek, O'Leary, Goodwin, Glanville, Womack, Veres, and Alfonseca as Cubs who have filed so far. I don't consider any of those guys as must-haves, but I could see Grudz, Karros, and Veres fitting in if the price was right.

One last tidbit to check out is the AFL diary of Cubs prospect Brendan Harris. It sounds like he is having fun down there, but I suppose that is to be expected when he is hitting two-out walkoff grand slams. Fellow Cub Jason Dubois picked up player of the week honors last week, and John Webb and Jason Szuminski are also doing fairly well. Sadly, Ben Christensen was Ankiel-wild in his only appearance so far.

That's all for now. Dennis will probably be back to breakdown Hour Two of 24, and I have a pitch count article in the works for later in the week too. Hopefully I can coax my computer into allowing one last post for old times sake before I take it out back and shoot it.

posted by Scott at 4:19 PM : |

 

California Fire

Our colleague Christian at the Cub Reporter has lost his home to the California fires. I can't imagine losing so many posessions with value both monetary and sentimental. Check in at his site and say something nice if you haven't already. We're thinking of you, Christian.
posted by Scott at 3:59 PM : |

 

Sucking my will to live

Well, not to live, but to post anyway. What could it be that is making it so tough on me? Well, its a number of things. First of all, there's the World Series. I couldn't bring myself to watch much of it. It was by all accounts a great series, but with only the evil Yankees and the evil Lorias playing I had nobody to root for. I did settle in and watch some last night, only to see the guy who threw at Sammy and talked all that trash about us emerge the hero. Great.

Then there's the big layoff scheduled for Tuesday at my employer. Rumor is 55 of 183 or so in my group are going to be out the door. I think I can pick out maybe 30% who are sure to stay, so that cuts my odds to 50/50 at best. I wonder what it says about me that getting laid off on my birthday would be the second worst thing that happened to me this month.

Next, there's the refrigirator issue. Namely, each time I open mine, I see this bottle of champagne staring back at me. It doesn't seem right to throw it away. I don't feel right drinking it without possesing the NL pennant it was purchased to celebrate. Heck, drinking a $4 bottle of champagne probably wouldn't be that enjoyable anyway. I read where one Cub fan is sitting on a bottle from 1984 for just this reason. I guess I'll sit on it for now.

Perhaps Jim Hendry will announce the acquisition of Vlad and ARod tomorrow and get me going again. If not, I guess I'll just have to summon some strength and get back in the flow of things by myself.

posted by Scott at 5:36 PM : |

 

The Sosa question

As Bill James observed long ago, a disproportionate share of credit or blame usually falls on a team's biggest star. I was reminded of that yet again when Mike Issacs pointed out this gem from the Daily Herald's Barry Rozner on a Cubs mailing list. Rozner has been making a living attacking Sosa for years now, so perhaps I shouldn't be surprised to read an anonymously sourced story on Sosa that implies the rest of the team backs what Rozner's been saying all along without providing any actual evidence that that is the case. Still, something about that article compels me to provide this quick piece of investigative journalism:

---

We are family? By Scott Lange Barry Rozner trumpets his wondeful family life, but that may not be the whole story. Two separate sources say Rozner and his wife had something of a dust-up last week. Whether Rozner's conduct went beyond words and on to beating her with the heavy metal frying pan he keeps in his kitchen is open to question, and nobody is talking about it which is as you would expect. One source said the confrontation may have had something to do with Rozner having been unable to perform in bed the night before. The couple has not produced a child in some time, and Rosner's impotence would go a long way toward explaining that fact. Contrary to fictional claims made by some, Rozner and his wife don't always get along perfectly so the incident may have blown up over something else. Either way, expect the usual suspects to issue the usual denials.

---

And there you go. Assuming Rozner has a wife and a frying pan, we have an utterly unimpeachable hatchet job with all the credibility of his original piece. Enjoy, Barry.

Anyway, now that I have that off my chest, let's take a look at Sosa's season. I want to look over some or maybe all the Cubs players from this past season, and there's no better place to start than Sosa.

Sosa's 2003 in review

Despite a pair of dramatic NLCS homeruns and a respectable .262/.436/.452 playoff line, Sammy Sosa's 2003 will most likely always be remembered for the corked bat he used in a game on June 3rd. From a performance standpoint though, the more important event was probably the impact of a Salomon Torres fastball hitting Sosa in the earflap of his batting helmet on April 20. Until the beanball, Sosa had been hitting the ball as well as ever and in fact sported a gaudy 1.201 OPS when he left the game that day. Afterwards, he immediately went into a severe slump that continued through a DL trip for a toe injury, through the cork incident, and did not end until he returned from the cork suspension on June 18th.

Sosa was white-hot again for about a month after his return, peaking with a week in mid July in which he hit six homers, had eleven RBIs, and went 15-29. From then on, it was a steady slide down to a dreadful final month six weeks during which Sosa's OBP was well under .300. He did recover some in October, drawing twelve walks in twelve postseason games and managing fifteen total bases and six RBIs in the seven game series with Florida.

Overall, Sosa's OBP and SLG were down this year while his BB rate and K rate both went in the wrong direction. The question is whether this represents the decline phase of a player who turns 35 in November or whether the beanball caused an aberration in his performance that we can expect to not be repeated next year. There's no way to look at the numbers and tell for sure, but experience tells me that we can't expect a guy Sosa's age to maintain his level of performance forever. I think Sosa will remain one of the league's better hitters for at least another couple of years, but I don't expect a return to the days of the 1.000+ OPSs.

Sosa is under contract for two more years for a total of $37.5M but he has the option to opt out and become a free agent. He is reportedly talking to management about an extension. Its an understandable move for someone who has said he wants to retire as a Cub, but the Cubs wisely seem to be ready to let Sosa play out the contract as-is. An extension would come at retail price, and Sosa is much more likely to get worse over the next two years than he is to get better. There is virtually no scenario in which a third or fourth year at $15M-$18M would be a bargain, and a much better chance it would be an anchor around our necks.

Sammy Sosa remains the best offensive player we've got. He's not worth a contract extension, but he is a huge key to our efforts to repeat as division champs and perhaps win an NL pennant.

posted by Scott at 5:21 PM : |

 

Yankees vs Fish

The Red Sox stayed with their ace starter in Game Seven even when it was clear he didn't have anything left, and the result was a blown lead and a World Series berth for the opposing team. Its sort of comforting that we aren't the only group of fans that have to suffer this year. Boston fans may actually have it worse- at least we didn't lose in gutwrenching fashion to the Cardinals.

Despite our season coming to an end, the fan interference story has charged ahead unabated. For me, the issue was over by the time Game Seven started. I still believe it was an idiotic and costly decision, and I still hope MLB prompts teams to start taking the issue seriously, but I have no interest in pursuing the guy any further. With luck, the media will come to the same conclusion within a month or two.

Hot Stove Philosophy

Both the Trib and the Sun-Times touch on Jim Hendry's offseason to-do list this morning. We've got four months to break down every little roster nuance, but for now its comforting to see that both papers think Hendry will look to improve the team rather than sitting still as we have done after other successful years in my lifetime. The Sun-Times specifically says "... Hendry won't stand pat like former GM Ed Lynch, who kept the 1998 playoff team almost intact." Of course, its Mike Kiley, so take it for what its worth.

Of course, there is more to getting better than just making moves. Kiley claims Hendry will be looking for a starting first baseman to replace Choi, but since he also claims that Hendry "can't afford to experiment" with Choi its hard to tell if he is reporting Hendry's desire or his own myopia. I don't want to believe they would be so stupid as to throw away a talent like Choi's, but with they way they have mishandled him so far anything is possible.

posted by Scott at 7:40 AM : |

 

The day after

"I let my teammates down. I let the organization down. I let the city down... You guys have got to understand. About 30 minutes ago, I choked. I choked, that's the bottom line. That's all I've got right now."

So said Kerry Wood, a man who gave every shred of effort someone could possibly give for our team this year. I get so emotional reading something like that. I feel proud of my guy for being such a stand up person. He doesn't alibi about throwing more pitches than anyone else in baseball. He just says he blew it, even though there are many other people to blame, few of whom did anywhere near as much to get us here. It makes me feel horrible too though. How can someone so noble and brave be left feeling the way he must feel? Where's the justice?

Like yesterday morning, the calls, e-mails, and cubicle visits have been frequent. Today people are a little kinder than yesterday. Maybe its because the season is over, or maybe its because there wasn't a crazy play like the foul ball Tuesday for them to laugh about. Maybe they just see the look on my face.

I had a realization during the Braves series. Its really difficult being a sports fan. I've played plenty of sports over the years, and experienced some truly gutwrenching defeats. At least then though, I knew that I had been able to give my best and it just wasn't enough. With the Cubs, I followed them every day of the year. I read the news reports, I poured over the matchups, I wore my lucky clothes and I ate my lucky meals. I traveled with the team when I could and followed them by TV, radio, and the internet when I couldn't. And then we lose. I knew that none of those things made a bit of difference when I was doing them, but I still felt like I should be trying to do my part. We lose, and I am faced with knowing that no matter what I did it was never going to help anything. Its bitter disappointment and its completely beyond my control to prevent.

Of course, from that it follows that no matter how much I write here or how many of my emotions I try to understand, its not going to give us another game to play. As such, I should probably wrap it up. There's an ALCS game tonight, and it looks like a great game. I should try to watch some of it, but right now I am not really in the mood. Maybe I'll cheer up some by gametime.

I am still optimistic about this team. Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Clement, Patterson, Choi, Sosa, Farnsworth, Borowski... all these guys have good years in front of them. If we make smart decisions I think we'll be pouring champagne sooner rather than later. Hang in there, everyone. Go Cubs.

posted by Scott at 10:49 AM : |

 

We'll be back

We came so close we could taste it, and had it slip through our fingers. I don't have it in me to write much about tonight's game. Suffice to say that, much like the rest of the year, this team never laid down. From Kerry's incredible home run to the spectacular at-bat Aramis had in the ninth, the whole team played their hearts out even when the odds were against them.

We have a lot of talent on this team and yet we have plenty of room for improvement. Jim Hendry will have some huge decisions to make in the coming months, and we'll be there to analyze them as best we can. One of us will probably post tomorrow when the disappointment of tonight is a little less intense.

I want to say thank you to all of you who came by this site this year. It meant a lot to me to be able to share my feelings about this team with you. I also want to thank Dennis for starting the blog and coaxing me into it over my lazy objections. Without him and all of you guys, I wouldn't have enjoyed the wonderful moments the Cubs gave us nearly as much. Just wait till next year.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
		-- Rogers Hornsby

posted by Scott at 12:06 AM : |

 

Game Seven

The Cubs lost a difficult (call it a Level 4, 2, and hopefully not 8) game tonight, and will go to a game seven with Florida. The pitching matchup will be Mark Redman against Kerry Wood. Redman has been much better against lefties this year (.582 OPS allowed versus .679), and he will face only one lefty in the Cub lineup. Kerry of course is coming off a dominant eight-inning performance in a decisive game five in Atlanta. I think we are going to win the series.

Thom and Steve annoyed me to no end tonight. I guess with Lyons you expect stupidity, but Thom's comment that if you are a Cub fan you must be wondering if you are cursed was impressively idiotic in its own right. I have to think that here in 2003 there might be at least a few Cub fans in teh world who don't believe in voodoo curses. I wish there was an announcer-free audio feed available on the SAP button.

Also, I was touched by Fox's decision to show Fox's own Bernie Mac sing the stretch tonight. I probably shouldn't be surprised that shamelessly promoting their own show matters while doing a good job covering the game by showing the stretch the rest of the time doesn't. I wonder if they influenced and/or dictated the decision to choose Bernie Mac for the task. Dennis suggested they get Santo on the phone to sing tomorrow night. Its a brilliant idea, but even if they did it we would get a commercial for 24 instead.

Mark Prior was up to the task for seven innings tonight, but our defense had some breakdowns. There was another ball rolling past the catcher, an easy pickup at first that got by Simon, and Alex's miscue in the eighth. We need to not make those mistakes tomorrow. Same goes for the bullpen. We have the advantage of Urbina having thrown two innings today, although we didn't really make him work much. We did have a few good at-bats during the game, notably from Sammy.

The play

I would like to say a word about the play that opened the floodgates in the eighth. The AP story states that he did not reach over the rail, although that's not the way I saw it. It appeared to me both live, in the replays, and in the picture at right that he contacted the ball just to the field side of the rail. Either way, he clearly took the ball away from Alou. I certainly don't advocate any sort of violence. It was after all a mistake, and not one that risked harming anyone else. Furthermore, this gentleman is no more of an idiot than the guy who robbed Bako of a foul pop last week. Nonetheless, when you sit in the first few rows you may find yourself involved in a play, and when that happens you have a couple responsibilities.

First, you have a legal responsibility not to interfere in play. Baseball teams don't take this seriously, and announcers routinely make it out as a big joke when fans lean out of the stands and get involved in play. What they should do is charge each person who reaches onto the field of play with trespassing. Security should come down, perp walk the person up the aisle, and book them on a misdemeanor trespassing charge. If they had been doing that all along, people would know better than to interfere in play.

Secondly, you have a responsibility to your team. The gentleman pictured at right is wearing a Cubs hat. He no doubt is listening to WGN on his little walkman. He has got to put the Cubs winning the pennant ahead of adding an item to his living room mantle on his priority list. Instead, in the heat of the moment he showed his true colors and lunged out after a ball. You ought to be focused on your team's well-being at all times, and all the more so at such a pivotal, potentially historical moment.

The play wasn't the only reason we lost the game, but its darn sure one of them. That said, what matters is that our players put it behind them and play smart tomorrow. We have every opportunity to pull this out. Go Cubs.

posted by Scott at 11:48 PM : |

 

Home

I just flew in from Miami, and boy are my arms tired! Also my legs, back, eyes, and brain. Let's just say that spending the night in a chair in the Miami International Airport isn't the most refreshing thing you can do between midnight and sunup on a Sunday night.

Obviously the outcome wasn't what we were looking for yesterday, but its tough to be upset about taking two of three in Miami and coming home with our two aces on full rest. Actually, Mark Prior will be on five days rest tomorrow or slightly more than full rest. I read somewhere over the weekend that Dusty feels Prior benefits from the extra rest more than others, and since chugging some numbers helps calm my nerves I figured I'd check it out. Prior has had one start on 24 days rest (after the concussion) this year for a 0.00 ERA. He has had one start on six days rest for a 2.25 ERA. He had nineteen starts on regular four days rest and had an ERA of 2.69. Finally, he had eleven starts on five days rest and posted a 2.18 ERA. Its not much of a difference or much of a sample size, but I certainly don't see a reson to challenge Dusty's conclusions. There, see how relaxing some nice stats can be?

Anyway, I am confident we will end it tomorrow. It would be far better to not go to game seven, both to allow Dusty to set the rotation for the World Series and because a two-game losing streak would bring up all sorts of memories of the past. McKeon has bailed on Brad Penny and will instead be going with Carl Pavano as Dennis discussed earlier today. You may remember Carl Pavano from such performances as the 5-1 loss to the Cubs on July 9, the 6-4 loss to the Cubs on April 10 of last year, and the 5-4 loss to the Cubs on July 12 of last year. I look forward to adding October 14, 2003 to that storied resume.

posted by Scott at 11:18 PM : |

 

On the brink

I had a good feeling going into the game last night. Ever since the Cubs slayed my personal demons (the Braves), my nerves have dropped from "DefCon 8, prepared to upchuck at a moment's noice" to "Terror Warning Raw Umber, a bit queasy but generally optimistic." OIf course, I wasn't the most optimistic person in the group. That honor woul have to go to Chris's friend John. We picked him up from the Ft. Lauderdae Airport and as we headed from their to the game he announced that his pick to click was Aramis Ramirez. I think he was the winner for the night.

Before the game we got to watch Pedro hammer Zim to the ground on a TV in the back of someone's SUV. I have a bit of a bias I suppose, but I thought Zim was the guilty party there. Suspensions all around would be fine though, since we may hgave to face them in a few days. We met up with Al, who was fruitlessly trying to make his money back on a few extra tickets he had. I also played washer toss with some Cub fanswho hgad driven in fronm Illinois. I don't want to brag, but I may be the greaetst washer toss player in washer toss history.,

I won't go into too may gam details since I am sure you probably saw it. We sat in the bleachers just to the fair side of the right field foul pole. Unfortunately, that put us exacty one row in front of Pudge's Posse, probably the rowdiest Marlins fans in the building. They had whistles that they blew at ear-pircing volumes throughout most of the game. They did show a bit of mercy at least- they agreed to warn Chris before blowing when he made that request late in the game. On the brigh side, I have to take issue with reports that ter are't many Cub fans here. Perhaps its just where we are stting, butthe outfield seemed to me to be at least 25% Cub fans and simillary loud as in Atlanta. If the is a difference, it is taht the Florida fans are putting up a bit more resistance than the wee little indians did.

We just realised checkout time is now, so I need to go. Not even any time to clean up the hotel-tv-internet induced typos. We are one gam away from our first NL pennant in more than two of my lifetimes. Bring it home, Cubbies!

posted by Scott at 10:36 AM : |

 

We're in a car, driving down the Florida Turnpike somewhere between Gainsville and Orlando. The atmosphere has grown desperate as the Cubs have let a lead slip away late in thegame. We have a printedlist of every radio affiliate for MLB on ESPN, the Marlins, andthe Cubs (did you know there is one in Valley, AL?), and we are methodically moving between them as atmospheric conditions dictate.

As we move through a particularly underinhabited secton of Florida, we are not finding any local stations and are relying on WGN to carry Pat Huges voice to us from some thousand-odd miles away. We enter a wooded section of highway as Randall Simon steps to the plate, and the trees turn our faint signal into pure staic, leaving us with no discernable signal for thefirst time in the ball game. Seconds pass... ten... twenty... we run through the Florida stations with no luck, and its back to 720. Stll static. Then, through the trees, through the clouds, somehow on word bounces of the aether and finds its way through thestratosphere to the anetenna of our 1996 Nissan Maxima.

... gone...

"GONE!? DID HE SAY GONE?" "I thought I heard 'gone'." "What did he say?" "I don't know!"

Incoming Nextel chirp
"Go Cubs!"

Outgoing chirp
"What happened?"

Incoming chirp
"Home run"

An hour or two later I was sprinting around a rest stop parking lot (the only reststop in Florida with WGN coming in loud and strong), leaping in the air and firing my hat to the sky. It was an ecstatic end to an exhilirating yet incredibly stressful game.

We will be at the erstwhile Joe Robbie tonight. I apologize for the typos, but this hotel web interface is a nightmare. Yarbage will not be updated today because he has witnessed my travails with it and doesn't want to go through it himself. Anyway, time for us to go. Go Clement, and go Cubs!

posted by Scott at 12:25 PM : |

 

Planes, Trains, Autombiles, and Buses

I live in an apartment about two miles from the home venue of our first round victim, the Atlanta Braves. As such, it was very easy for me to make it to see the games in person. When Chris suggested I get in on their Miami getaway plan, I hesitate only a moment before signing on. I knew I had a meeting for work in Panama City, Florida, Friday, so that would just make it easier right?

After several hours of phone calls and internet searches, I now have an itinerary. Let us just say it is slightly more complex than I had expected.

• Thursday, 8:30 a.m. EDT- Board a Greyhoud bus 218 miles to Dothan, AL
• Thursday, 12:30 p.m. CDT- Taxi 3 miles to Dothan Enterprise car rental
• Thursday, 3:30 p.m. - Rental car 85 miles to Panama City, FL
• Friday, 8:00 a.m.- Rental car 5 miles to Gulf Power Plant Smith for meeting
• Friday, 12:00 p.m.- Rental car 85 miles back to Dothan
• Friday, 3:00 p.m.- Picked up in the Yarbagemobile, 618 miles to Miami, FL
• Saturday, 1:00 a.m. EDT- Arrive at hotel to be named later
• Saturday, 7:00 p.m.- Cubs/Marlins, Game Four
• Sunday, 4:00 p.m.- Cubs/Marlins, Game Five
• Sunday, 9:00 p.m.- Dropped off at Miami International Airport
• Monday, 11:00 a.m.- Take off on AirTran 2151, 280 miles to Tampa, FL
• Monday, 1:30 p.m.- Take off on AirTran 584, 457 miles to Atlanta, GA

Five days, four modes of transportation (five if you count MARTAing to the airport), roughly 1800 miles, and certainly worth every minute. Or, it will be if we win anyway. Dennis will have the post-game on this one, and I am sure you can expect something good at Al Yellon's site as he will be at tonight's game.
posted by Scott at 9:57 AM : |

 

Sosa's Heroics Not Enough

The Cubs came as close as you can possibly come to stealing a win in Game One and having a chance to go up 3-0 behind Wood and Prior, but in the end it wasn't to be. After being staked to a four run lead, Carlos was cruising right along until the third when he gave up three homers and the lead in what seemed like seconds. Alex Gonzalez hit another big homer late to tie it, but Joe gave up his first runs of the postseason on three weakly hit ground balls and one legitimate single. Sosa tied it with two down in the ninth, but Mark Guthrie gave up the game-winner to Mike Lowell and that's all she wrote.

Dennis argued that Baker blundered by going to Guthrie in the 11th. He contended that going to a righty would have brought Lenny Harris out instead. He's got a point, especially when you look at Lowell's large platoon split (although that is somewhat mitigated by Guthrie's reverse split). Of course, its all kind of moot, since Baker's intent in bringing in Guthrie in the first place was to avoid facing Lenny Harris! Seriously. I kid you not. Click the link if you don't believe me. ""Yeah, I anticipated they'd bring in Lowell," Baker said. "But in that situation, I was down to three pitchers [actually four: Guthrie, Veres, Juan Cruz, Antonio Alfonseca]. And if I brought in a righty, they had Harris over there... so I took my shot with Lowell."

Is there a manager in the history of baseball with a greater ratio of people smarts to tactical smarts? I think the answer is no.

As nice as it would have been to steal this game, it still wasn't one we could have reasonably expected to win going in. We now have Prior and Wood, in games that are very nearly must-win on paper. Tonight's opponent is Brad Penny, a good right-handed pitcher with no appreciable platoon split. There's no pitcher in baseball I would rather have on the mound than Mark Prior. Let's go Cubs!

posted by Scott at 8:35 AM : |

 

National League Championship Series

Now see, that's not a stupid name at all.

The Florida Marlins will visit Wrigley Field tonight under clear skies with temperatures in the 60s. I am of the opinion that winning the Central division was a great accomplishment, and knocking off the league's best team in the first round was a marvelous feat as well, but I must admit that the folks who point out that we were this close as recently as 1989 do have a point. It would take a pennant for the Cubs do accomplish something that they haven't done before in my lifetime.

For the Atlanta series, I shied away from making an actual prediction but did say that I thought we would get at least three top notch starts and if we could score a few runs and win those games we would take the series. The fact that I was exactly right about that proves the old blind squirrel theory once and for all. I might as well push my luck though, so here's what I think of the NLCS.

The Marlins pitching staff scares me more than the Braves did. Josh Beckett was very good all year long and has peaked in September and October (2.26 ERA since mid-August and averaging over seven innings per start). Brad Penny hasn't been as consistent, but over the last half of the year he was still very good (3.42 ERA since July 1). He was hit hard in Game Two of the NLDS, but came back with 1.2 innings of scoreless relief in Game Four. Phlorida Phenom (and former Boise Hawk) Dontrelle Willis had a lousy August but ranged from very good to dominant the rest of the year. Unlike the Braves, I think one or more of these guys has the stuff to put up a shutout against someone, particularly someone with our offense.

Here's my gut feeling. We get Prior and Wood for four starts. It is possible to sweep those four starts, but more likely the bullpen, the offense, or a control spasm lets one get away. If we can take three of four though, we'll have three chances with Zambrano and Clement and need just one win. I think that is the most likely formula for victory.

There are a lot of series previews around, but the most detailed I have seen is Christian's so you may want to give that a try too.

I know of three Cubs Blog Army members going to Miami so far- Yarbage and myself for Games 4 and 5 and Al Yellon for Games 3 and 4. I expect the Marlins to be very tough, but I can't say the idea of a sweep and getting to see the Cubs take a pennant in person hasn't occurred to me. Considering the opponent I can't say its likely, but you never know.

One final note- Derek of Let's Play Two seems to have received a doubling in readership ever since people started googling for the phrase "Kerry Wood's wife." You see, Derek typed the words "Kerry Wood's wife is hot" in reference to Fox's nonstop camera coverage of her the other day, and ever since horny teenage baseball fans have been flooding his site with traffic. You may think I am only bringing this up for an excuse to get the phrase "Kerry Wood's wife is hot" posted to draw traffic for this blog, but you couldn't be more wrong. If that was my plan, I would be typing things like "Kerry Wood's wife naked" or "Don Zimmer nudes." Um, maybe not that last one actually...

posted by Scott at 8:34 AM : |

 

Cubs Win!

One of our tailgating neighbors pops open his bottle of champagne after the game. We made sure his wife was the one who was planning to drive home.

If you've never stood and watched Joe Borowski stare down a hitter with two out in the bottom of the ninth in the final game of a playoff series, I heartily recommend it. It was the kind of night where you sit around in the parking lot afterwards, take turns remembering events from the game, and marvel at each of them in turn. It was a night of nerves, of exultation, and of a long teary embrace with my dad when Andruw went down swinging. It was a great night to be a Cubs fan.

Let's talk about the game. First of all, Kerry Wood. Every one of you who were slagging him two months ago can write out your apologies in long hand and mail them to Kid K c/o The Cubs (that's a little alliteration for you kids at home.) For the first five innings, the Braves simply couldn't touch him. In the sixth and seventh, the Braves had a few glimmers of hope but each time Kerry bore down to get the big inning ending outs. Heck, in the sixth the umpires actually gave the Braves a pity run and Kerry shrugged and finished the inning like nothing had happened. In the eighth, he was rolling again, pitching around Furcal's bunt single and escaping with no damage done. Just a fantastic pitching performance in one of the biggest games in over a hundred years of Cubs history. I guess he was feeling charitable so he didn't bother shredding Hampton with his bat as well.

Next up, how about the homer from Alex Gonzalez? Just when you think he will never get another hit, he hammers one out to dead center in the biggest game of the year so far. Credit goes to Cub Blog Army Soldier Chris Yarbrough who made Alex his pick to click before the game. He knew before we got to the park that there would be an unlikely hero, but he waited until shortly before entering to identify Alex as the man.

Lighting round time:

• A routine 6-4-3 force at first
• Kenny with the leadoff double
• Aramis with the homer that Lenny Harris never would have hit
• Moises Alou with two more hits to go .500 for the series
• Joe Borowski. Could he be any calmer?
• Dusty lifts Kerry for the pinch-hitter, gets an extra insurance run, and keeps Kerry fresh for the NLCS. Genius!

The scene from section 407 about five seconds after Andruw whiffed. Note Sammy and Kenny about to do the jump-five as Moises awaits his turn. Also, somewhere in there a civilian is cruising towards a security beatdown by second base.

I could go on all night, but I have to work tomorrow so this strikes me as a good time to wrap it up. Everyone who made it down here deserves a lot of credit. Tonight's crowd couldn't quite measure up to Game One's in terms of Cub fan intensity, but any team should be proud to have even tonight's level of support at a road playoff game. It truely was Wrigley Field South. Kudos also to a number of Braves fans who behaved with class such that Robert Fick could never comprehend. Right before Aramis' homer, a drunk who was harassing my father and I was escorted out thanks to a tip from the Braves fans sitting behind us. Also, a number of other Braves fans shook our hands and wished us luck on the way out. I don't know if I would be as gracious in defeat, so I must tip my cap.

Thanks to a little cajoling from Chris, I bought tickets for games 4 and 5 of the NLCS today so I'll be roadtripping to Miami next weekend. I think everyone should get to experience something like this at least once, and if once is good then twice must be better. Eight more wins. Bring on the Fish.

Edited to add

One additional note: I retired the Mark Grace jersey earlier this year. He's been gone for a few years now, and I figured it was time to let go a bit. The Hee Sop Choi jersey stepped in admirably, leading us to the 15 inning win over St. Louis, the six run comeback over St. Louis, and Kerry Wood in Game One over the Braves. Last night though, I decided the occasion called for something special. The Grace jersey came roaring off the hanger and into Turner Field, and when all was said and done we were headed to the NLCS. Thanks one more time, Mark!
posted by Scott at 2:30 AM : |

 

Braves escape

Sammy Sosa came a few feet from tying Game Four in the bottom of the ninth, but instead the team whose style is exemplified by Robert Fick's cowardly cheap shot at Eric Karros lived to play a game five. I will be there, and I have twelve tickets. I plan to sell them at face value to Cubs fans who come by the tailgate, but if you can come email me and I'll hold one for you.

I am not in the mood to write more, but the party is on tomorrow afternoon in the Turner Field parking lot. Be there and see the least deserving fans in baseball go home with broken tomahawks and broken hearts. Email me if you want a ticket.

Edited to add:

Here is the AP story on Mr. Fick: Karros also took a beating. In the eighth inning, he caught a throw to first and still had his arm raised when pinch-hitter Fick came barreling at him and threw a forearm that was worthy of all-star wrestling.

The blow knocked the ball and glove free, nearly injuring Karros.

"It was an interesting running technique, that's a polite way to put it," Karros said. "He's pretty close to clotheslining me, too."

Karros grimaced in pain as plate umpire Larry Young came up the line to call Fick out.

"It's an elimination game and you've got to do what you've got to do," Fick said in a profanity-laced explanation. "I'm not saying I did it on purpose. But it's ... baseball."

All class, Rob, all class.

posted by Scott at 8:34 PM : |

 

The King is Dead, Long Live the King!

Greg Maddux was a great pitcher in his day, but Mark Prior served notice that there is a new best pitcher to have ever worn a Cubs uniform with a masterful 3-1 two-hitter at Wrigley tonight. The Cubs took advantage of a shaky Braves defense that was shaky all night long. Robert Fick opened the door by botching a Grudzialanek bunt in the first, and a wild pitch and a Randall Simon single plated all the runs Mark Prior would need.

We now have two chances to close it out. Bobby Cox looks to be going with his twenty-game winner on short rest in tomorrow's potential elimination game. I think its the right move since the alternative is feeding a lefty to our right-hadned lineup, but if he was going to use Ramirez at any point it strikes me as a panic move to bail on him now. As fun as seeing a game five win in person would be, I would much rather see Clement not take any chances and close it out here. Ortiz didnt have great control this year, and he was all over the place Tuesday so let's take some pitches and jump all over him early.

One game to go...

Updated to add:

Russ Ortiz will go on short rest today. He has done so once before on his career, on April 7 of this year. He pitched well, allowing just three hits and no runs in seven innings, but he did show signs of vulnerability. He walked three batters and was behind hitters all day, throwing just 49 strikes in 90 pitches. Its obviously way too small a sample size to mean much, but its food for thought. Not to be overlooked is the fact that moving Ortiz up also requires moving Mike Hampton to three days rest if a Game Five proves necessary.
posted by Scott at 11:51 PM : |

 

The Big One

Greg Maddux. Mark Prior. The one that got away. The one that hasn't. The recent history and immediate future of this franchise are summed up in a Game Three which shapes up as the biggest of the year so far. My impression is that most Cubs fans don't hold much hatred in their hearts for Maddux. He is no Matt Morris at any rate. Still, there is no better way to put the thought of a Hall of Famer slipping through our fingers behind us than having Mark Prior put a stamp on him and send him off.

Maddux's numbers look pretty average on the surface- 16-11, 3.96 ERA, and 5.1 K/IP. However, there is reason to believe he may be a good bit better than those figures would indicate. He was lousy in March and April (5.13 ERA), marginal in May and June (4.68), and since July 1 he has been pretty darn good (3.00). Furthermore, his peripherals are better than you might expect from the ERA. He was eighth in the league in WHIP and tops on the Atlanta staff in SNWL. If he has a weakness, it may be endurance as he made it into the eighth just three times this year.

Tailgate party pics

Between my lack of photography skill and laziness in taking pictures when I should have been, I didn't get many good pictures taken Tuesday and Wednesday. Heck, I didn't get any pictures of Chris Yarbrough and his Bama posse. The best one I did get is below and shows readers Tom and John shortly after they won an arguement with a drunken sherrif who attempted to coerce them into removing their Kerry K signs. If the Brave somehow manage to steal one of the next two, the party will be on again at Turner Field and I'll make sure to do a better job with the camera.

posted by Scott at 10:49 AM : |

 

Missed opportunity

If I had to choose a word to describe tonight's game, that word would be "less fun." The tailgate was another big success, as I actually arrived in the Tuner Field Blue Lot to find a space reserved for me by several of the guys from yesterday's party. Apparently hungry Cub fans make for loyal friends. With the grilling down to a science, we had brats and burgers dished up in no time.

Earlier in the day, Tom (who drove down from Illinois with his brother John to tailgate with us and see the Cubs) had the brilliant idea to make a ton of Ron Santo signs. All together we maybe made twenty or thirty Santo signs and gave them to Cub fans who happened by. We instructed everyone to save them till the top of seventh ("our" seventh inning stretch) and then display them all at once. We had hopes that Pat might spot them and mention them so Ron could hear they were there back in Chicago. I've got no idea if it worked but it was fun trying.

And then there was the game. We had our chances to steal one, and we really should have finished Hampton off early. I didn't care for the IBB to Furcal at the time, and not just because it turned out badly. Pitching to Furcal, you've got two open bases and two batters you can fool around with before you get to the nightmare Sheffield/loaded situation. By putting Furcal on, you put yourself just one walk from that situation and basically force Veres to throw good pitches to DeRosa. The only way that makes sense is if DeRosa is a much worse hitter than Furcal. Furcal's got him by 100 points of OPS this year, but that isn't nearly enough to sacrifice the runner and the wiggle room.

And yet, we head back to Chicago with a split in Atlanta and home field advantage. We are throwing Prior, Clement, and Wood, and Atlanta has to beat two of the three to knock us out. Anything could happen, but I think we are in great shape.

Thanks to everyone who came to Atlanta to represent Cubdom, and a special thanks to those who made it to our tailgate parties. It was a lot of fun meeting some very cool people. As I told a few of you tonight, I expect my hospitality to be returned when I come up for the World Series in a few weeks.

posted by Scott at 12:32 AM : |

 

Two-way Kid K

I was nervous today. All through work, and all through our tailgate party, I worried. I worried about our offense, I worried about the Braves offense, and I worried about Kerry Wood. Around eight o'clock, we finished packing up the food and I began walking toward a surprisingly loud stadium with my father. As we got closer, I was able to make out the words...

Let's Go Cubs! Let's Go Cubs!

As I rode up the escalator towards our seats, the chants rang in my ears and the nerves were suddenly gone. They were replaced with an excited energy. I was in a stadium full of Cub fans and we had come to win.

Early on, both pitchers seemed to be behind every hitter but both were dodging bullets. In the fourth, Alou, Ramirez, and Karros loaded the bases but Gonzalez, Bako, and Wood failed to plate even a single run. In the sixth, Alou and Ramirez reached again. Chris Yarborough declared that if Karros could reach, he wanted to see Randall Simon come out and pinch-hit for Alex Gonzalez. It was a very simillar call to the one Dennis praised Clint Hurdle for a couple weeks ago, and I thought it was a brilliant idea when I heard it. Imagine my shock when Dusty actually did it! Of course, Ortiz managed to get Simon swinging, but I still think it was a great move.

Paul Bako was up next and grounded out but the play allowed the tying run to score and brought Kerry Wood to the plate with two out and two in scoring position. The situation called for some more prognostication, and my dad was up to the challenge. I didn't hear it, but other witnesses swear that he announced Kerry's game-breaking double before he even stepped into the box. Not half bad, Dad.

When JoBo struck out the side to end it, we crossed over a section to walk out with a couple readers who made it to the tailgate party. I've got a picture of the K's they were hanging up, but I seem to have misplaced the transfer cable for my camera so the pictures will have to wait till tomorrow. Anyway, as we worked our way out of the stadium, we were engulfed in raucous Cub fans. People were beating on trashcans to give the crowd a rythym for a "Let's Go Cubbies!" chant. Strangers were high-fiving, hugging, you name it. At one point, a tall gentleman in a Prior jersey turned around and said "this one's for Ronnie Santo!" The whole crowd roared back, "RON-NIE! RON-NIE! RON-NIE!" The goosebumps were promptly out in force.

I know Al Yellon has had some great days at the ballpark lately, but I'll stack my night up with any of his, even the clincher last Saturday. There is just something about a mad celebration in the other team's park with a bunch of crazies half of whom drove 12 hours to be there. You would think with that kind of crowd, we would have gotten some love from the umpires. From where I was sitting (20th row, upper deck), the umpire was squeezing Kerry and they just killed us with the missed DP call at first. Thank goodness our guys are so tough they can do it even with fishy umpiring.

Tomorrow is Carlos Zambrano Day. It looks like a must-win for the Braves, but if Z's back is healthy they may not get it. Kerry had his way with the vaunted Atlanta offense, and I am certainly willing to watch Carlos treat them the same way. Gametime is 7pm, tailgate is at 4. See you there. Cubs win! Cubs WIN!

P.S. I see that Chris has already posted. He drove back to Tuscaloosa after the game, and already posted?? Hide the women and children, the Yarbage-mobile is going 120 down I-85!

posted by Scott at 1:53 AM : |

 

The Eve of Battle

Here we are, just nine hours to gametime. Between some utterly incomprehensible strain gauge data at my job and the impending clash at Turner Field, I am a nervous wreck. You can look around and find oodles of playoff predictions, but in such a short series I don't think it is possible to predict the outcome with a high degree of accuracy. Like everyone, I do have a gut feeling about it though, so that's what I'll share with you.

We were 19-1 when allowing one run, 22-6 when allowing two, and 13-10 when allowing three this year. With the starters we have lined up, I think we are very likely to get three and probably four pitching performances in the zero to two runs allowed range. The key is to convert those into wins. That requires the bullpen (hopefully Farnsworth, Remlinger, and Borowski only) to perform, and it requires the offense to put at least a few runs on the board. If we give away a game where we get an 8 IP, 1 R start, I think we'll lose the series. Otherwise, we have a great shot.

Tailgate Party Update

I still don't have much of an idea how many people to expect, but it looks like we'll have at least five or six and building to 15 or so by time to head into the stadium. Dress a bit warm if you come, because we are getting our first cold snap of the year (in the 50's tonight). I am looking forward to it. Go Cubs!
posted by Scott at 10:57 AM : |

 

NLDS Roster Prediction

Can someone explain to me where they get the acronym NLDS? I mean, NLCS stands for National League Championship Series, which makes sense since it is a series to determine the champion of the National League. By analogy, you might think the NLDSs determines the champion of the National Leauge, um, divisions. Of course, that's not the case at all. The NLDSs determine the champions of nothing and in fact are nothing more than glorified play-in tournaments for the NLCS.

You know, from the stupidly named NLDS to that hairpiece, I think I may hate every single thing Bud Selig has brought to this earth. Oh well, on with the predictions:

Pitching
The scheduled starters for the Cubs are Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, and Matt Clement. Joe Borowski, Kyle Farnsworth, and Mike Remlinger are locks out of the pen. Antonio Alfonseca (5.83 ERA for the year, 8.68 in September, 10.54 since Aug 23) is probably a lock too, sad to say. Judging from Dusty's usage patterns, Guthrie and Veres will likely take two more slots. That's four starters and six relievers, which most likely leaves one long relief slot to be contested by Shawn Estes and Juan Cruz. With Estes pitching better in the last two weeks than Cruz, I think we can be sure that Estes will get the nod.

Catching
Some teams (like Bobby Cox in many past seasons) like to take three catchers to the playoffs, despite the tendency it has to limit your options. As best I can tell Dusty didn't do that last year, so let's figure Damian Miller and Paul Bako will be the only two behind the plate.

Infield
The locks are Eric Karros, Randall Simon, Mark Grudzielanek, Alex Gonzalez, and Aramis Ramirez. Ramon Martinez gives a lot of flexibility and may even be in line for a start at some point, so count him in. Dusty took seven infielders with the Giants last year and Tony Womack had far more September AB's than any other infielder so I have to assume he will be the last infielder.

Outfield
We've got five slots left for outfielders. Sosa, Alou, and Lofton are locks. Tom Goodwin has been the fourth outfielder of choice, and Doug Glanville is the right-handed outfielder off the bench (at least he will be if he hits like he did foue years ago in his only good season).

Summary
So there we have it. As the roster is constructed, there really aren't a lot of alternatives so I'll go out on a limb and guess this is the exact roster Dusty will go with. If it were me, I would have been using Choi for the last two months and he would most likely be on the list in place of Simon. I would take Cruz instead of Estes, and one of the rookies in place of Alfonseca, probably Wellemeyer. Still, given the options, I don't have a huge beef with any of these guys.

posted by Scott at 8:33 PM : |

 

Division Champs

Its the morning after, and I have finally begun to catch my breath. Heading into yesterday, we seemed likely to limp into the playoffs if we made it all. Much like '98, we would have headed to Atlanta with a tired pitching staff and likely would have been easy pickings for the Braves. Instead, thanks to the heroics of Clement, Prior, and our man Wes Obermueller, we will be going with Kerry Wood in game one and everyone will have two full days of rest. The Braves have a good pitching staff and a deadly offense, but with a lineup of Wood, Zambrano, Prior, Clement, and Wood again I think we have a good shot at every game in the series.

Either Dennis or I will be back tomorrow with some analysis on the series with the Braves. In the meantime, I strongly encourage you to hit all the other Cub blogs out there if you haven't already. I find it compounds my joy to read everyone else expressing theirs.

Tailgate Party Tueday in Atlanta

The mlb.com playoff schedule says we will play Tuesday at 8, Wednesday at 7, and Sunday if necessary at a time TBD. Right now I intend to tailgate before all three games, but I will definitely be out there Tuesday no later than five. I would love to meet as many Cub fans as possible, so if you will be in Atlanta, look for me. I will be in a green pickup truck and wearing a road Hee Sop Choi jersey. Chris Yarbrough of the Yarbage Cub Review is bringing a bunch of folks from Tuscalossa, and I hope that some of the rest of you can join us as well. I haven't ever tailgated at Turner Field, but I am told that the best place is next to a walkway that runs NW/SE in the parking lot just north of the stadium. If you look at this photograph, its the light brown walkway running diagonally NW/SE between Turner Field to the south and the painted footprint of the former Atlanta Fulton County Stadium to the north. If I can find anything more specific about where tailgating is allowed, I'll post it here. If you e-mail me, I will give you my cell phone number if you want to try to find me that way. Tickets are available, so ditch your job for a day or two and come on down! I may have a couple extra tickets with our group in the upper deck, so if you want to sit with us let me know about that too.
posted by Scott at 12:38 PM : |

 

AC005895

I am writing this early so if we do clinch tonight I can post it and then run around in front of my apartment screaming my head off. Just a fabulous day to be alive.

I am buying a group of tickets tonight for all three games in Atlanta. I'll be hosting a tailgate party before Game One and possibly before the others although I can't promise anything there yet. If you can make it to Atlanta (tix are available), let me know you are coming and I will buy more food, Cokes, and beer for you. I'll post more when I calm down enough to sit in front of the computer.

CUBS WIN!!!!!
posted by Scott at 7:19 PM : |

 

Rain halts Cubs, Sexson halts Astros

Mother Nature did the Cubs no favors Friday but Richie Sexson made sure to pick up the slack. Sexson, long-time scourge of Cubs pitching, turned his wrath on the Astros bullpen today launching two homers in a 12-5 win. He was aided in his quest by a series of lousy pitchers and fielding miscues from Houston. The loss gives the Cubs a half game edge heading into tomorrow's DH and gives them a chance to clinch the division with a DH sweep and another Houston loss.

According to the Trib, Mark Prior will face Josh Fogg in the first game tomorrow, to be immediately followed by Clement (13-12, 4.22) and Vogelsong (2-1, 4.79) in game two. In Texas, Wes Obermueller (1-5, 5.46) will meet Ron Villone (6-5, 3.92). By 7pm tomorrow, we could be anywhere from needing help to make it to a one-game playoff to being division champs. Here's to the latter.

A Personal Note

If you haven't heard, Mark Grace announced his retirement today. Mark has been my favorite player since I bought his rookie card at a yard sale for 25 cents before he had ever played a big league game. The position had opened up the previous year when Jody Davis stiffed me for an autograph, and the "Rated Rookie" played my position and that was good enough for me. I think it was a good choice. He not only gave me great moments to remember for a lifetime, but just about every time I heard him speak he gave me a new reason to root him on.

Anyway, you've been there for over half my life Mark, and in all that time you never let me down. Thanks.

posted by Scott at 1:56 AM : |

 

Bitter pill

Well, if it was too easy it wouldn't be any fun, right? The Cubs suffered a 9-7 defeat and unless the Astros blow a late lead will fall into a tie for first with three games to play. Carlos Zambrano had his second consecutive sub-par start, walking five batters and allowing five runs in just five innings. He wasn't helped by Guthrie or Veres, each of whom just added fuel to the Reds fire. The lone bright spot was Sammy Sosa, who finally broke out with two homers but it sadly wasn't enough.

Carlos went nine innings and threw 129 pitches (his high pitch count of the year) on September 14th. Five days later, he allowed 9 runs in 4.2 IP. Today, another ugly start. Has Dusty's predeliction for high pitch counts caught up with the youngest member of the team? Honestly, there is no way to know. Maybe its just chance that Carlos has had two of his worst starts of the year since the 129 pitch outing. Maybe it was a result of nagging injuries not related to pitch counts. I suppose we will never know. The one sure way to know would have been to keep him out of that situation in the first place.

Tomorrow afternoon its Josh Fogg (10-8, 5.23) and Mark Prior (17-6, 2.42). When that one ends, its the lousy Wayne Franklin (10-13, 5.34) against the lousy Jeriome Robertson (15-8, 5.00). On paper, its our best chance to pick up a game between now and the end of the season.

Dennis will be back in the morning with the post mortem on a tough loss. I don't know how you feel right now, but I'm doing my best to keep my head up. We are tied with three games to play. We've got every opportunity to win this thing, and if I didn't quit when we were 5.5 back a couple months ago I am not throwing in the towel now. Go get us a win, Mark. We need it.

posted by Scott at 11:01 PM : |

 

Estes for Cy Young!

Two very resistable offenses met two very moveable starting pitchers in Cincinnati tonight. Fortunately for all of our mental states, it was the Cubs who won the battle on both sides. Shawn Estes was right at home facing the AAA Reds lineup, allowing just four hits and two walks in a complete game shutout. The offense took advantage of two Cincinnati errors and scored four unearned runs off starter and loser Josh Hall. Sammy cracked his 37th homer and drew his second walk in the last fourteen days.

The 8-0 rout came in response to Houston's nailbiting win over San Fran, 2-1 earlier today. Despite starting the scrub lineup, the Giants nearly gave us a huge gift as Sidney Ponson took a 1-0 lead into the seventh before that darned Jose Vizcaino drove in two for the win. Net result for the day is no change in the standings and one less game to play, and on a day when Estes starts that sounds plenty good to me.

Carlos Zambrano (13-10, 2.97) will go for the sweep against none other than Todd Van Poppel (2-1, 5.53) tomorrow night. Van Poppel pitched brilliantly against the contending Phillies last week, so he may not be the pushover Hall was tonight. Doug Davis (7-7, 4.01) will face Tim Redding (9-14, 3.74) in Houston. Davis has actually been quite good since coming over from Toronto, posting a 2.33 ERA over seven starts.

Dennis will return in the morning with another report from Cincinnati's Wrigley South. Just four more games...

posted by Scott at 10:34 PM : |

 

Cubs alone in first

Kerry Wood. What can you say about a guy like Kerry Wood? True, he lost the no-hitter in the seventh, but other than that he did all right tonight. He ran his scoreless inning streak to 17 over three starts, and dropped his ERA since August 27th to 1.04. Meanwhile, our friends from the Left Coast unleashed a ten-run second inning to smack Wade Miller and the Astros back to the stone age 10-3. That's three straight days on the calendar where every Astro and Cub game has broken the right way for us, propelling the Cubs from 1.5 back to one up with five to play.

Tomorrow Houston sends Roy Oswalt (9-5, 3.09) to stop the bleeding, but the Giants counter with late season acquisition Sidney Ponson (17-11, 3.79). In Cincinnati, Shawn Estes (7-11, you don't want to know) will face Josh Hall (0-1, 6.14). Hall has been hammered in every single major league appearance he has ever made unless you count the seven shutout innings he threw at us last week. We all feel the same way about Estes, but he has had ten quality starts this year. If he has one more left somewhere in that arm, there's no time like the present to bust it out.

Dennis, who was in attendance at New Riverfront tonight, will be posting in the morning to relate what its like watching the Cubs surrounded by Cubs fans in a visiting park. For now, I am off to bed with visions of first place dancing in my head.

posted by Scott at 11:48 PM : |

 

All square!

I was settling in for a long night with the Astros and Giants tied 3-3 in the ninth and one of baseball's most dominant pitchers in for Houston, but a funny thing happened on the way to extra innings- namely, Pedro Feliz. The minor league veteran took Billy Wagner out the opposite way, and Ray Durham added another one three pitches later. Tim Worrell closed it out and the Cubs found themselves in first place with just six games to play.

Tomorrow its a battle of aces in Houston as Jason Schmidt (16-5, 2.33) faces Wade Miller (14-12, 3.97). Schmidt pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, but he's been nearly as good on the road (2.24 to 2.43 ERA) so I see no reason to worry. Also tomorrow, Scott Randall (2-3, 6.75) will be making his first career start against Kerry Wood (13-11, 3.31) tomorrow. Randall faces the Cubs in relief on 9/12 and 9/13, and gave up four hits, three walks, and three runs while recording just three outs. Hopefully that bodes well...

posted by Scott at 11:39 PM : |

 

Week of September 15 in review

Cubs 5-2, (31 runs for, 31 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Mark Prior, 3 R and 27 K in 16.1 IP
Hitter of the Week: Aramis Ramirez, .429 OBP and .917 SLG
The Week Ahead: at Cincinnati for 3, vs Pittsburgh for 3

Astros 3-3 (39 runs for, 21 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Roy Oswalt, 7 IP, 1 R
Hitter of the Week: Richard Hidalgo, .467 OBP and .885 SLG
The Week Ahead: vs San Francisco for 3, vs Milwaukee for 4

Cardinals 5-2 (46 runs for, 28 runs against)
Pitcher of the Week: Woody Williams, 7 IP and 0 R
Hitter of the Week: Albert Pujols, .613 OBP and .792 SLG
The Week Ahead: Does it matter?
posted by Scott at 11:22 AM : |

 

Sunday = Funday

Twice the closer put two on with one out in the ninth, twice he got the ground ball twin killing, and twice Cubs fans celebrated. In Pittsburgh it was Joe Borowski coaxing a 6-4-3 to finish a 4-1 win over the Pirates. An hour later in St. Louis it was Jason Isringhausen getting Jeff Kent to hit into the 5-4-3 to wrap up a 6-4 win. The end result, Houston's lead is once again down to a half game and hope is once again on the rise on the Northside.

I paid $150 or so for the Extra Innings package on digital cable this year. (Sattelite isn't an option due to lack of a southwesterly view.) Today, with eight days left in the season, there were four meaningful games in the National League, and EI provided me with coverage of none of them. It made for a nervewracking afternoon of getting text play-by-play from Cubs fans on the internet. I had the good fortune of being in a chat room with a guy named Dan who had the Cardinals game on local TV, as well as with Dennis who was giving updates from the Reds broadcast on The Big One, WLW 700 in Cincinnati. I'd be more upset if we hadn't gotten ideal outcomes from all four games, but goodness I don't want to have to go through that again.

It seems like half our wins this year have followed the script of "great pitching from the starter and great hitting from one position player," and that's what we had again today. Mark Prior was dominant, striking out 14 and not allowing a run until he ran out of gas in the eighth. Dusty ran him up to 131 pitches, and if he God forbid comes out with nothing in the tank later this week it will be awfully hard to stick to my no pitch-count-whining pledge. Aramis Ramirez was the man with the bat, hitting two homers as well as driving in Grudzie with an infield single.

Tomorrow the stress meter drops a bit as the Cubs and Phillies have the day off leaving just two games for us to follow from our cubicles. Here in Atlanta, Mike Hampton (14-7, 3.64) will face Florida's Mark Redman (13-9, 3.70). In Houston, its rookie Jerome Williams (7-4, 3.30) against Ron Villone (6-5, 3.99). Another perfect day like today would put us a single game out of the wildcard and all square with the Astros.

One last note to the Cardinals: You did what I asked. Thanks. Now I hope jet engines crush each of you in your respective beds tonight. (See, that is a Donnie Darko reference.)

posted by Scott at 8:00 PM : |

 

Missed opportunities

Albert Pujols hit a very un-Morris like 13th inning home run to open the door for the Cubs, but Matt Clement went wild in the fourth and the Cubs offense could never close the gap. The net result leaves the Cubs right where they were going into the day but with one fewer game remaining to play.

The primary reason we lost the game was Clement's loss of control, but the fact remains that more often than not you need to score more than two runs to win. Sammy's woeful September continued with four strikeouts in four appearances. We also gave away two runners on the base paths as we have been prone to do all year. I don't really expect any better out of Wendell, but we have to have Sammy hot and right now it isn't happening. Ah well, at least Hee Sop got an AB. Its too bad it was his only his fourth of the month and first in ten days.

Today is a game you figure you can't afford to lose, as Mark Prior goes for the next-to-last time this regular season. His opponent will be Oliver Perez (4-9, 5.40), the southpaw acquired from San Diego in the Brian Giles trade. Perez has been hit hard by lefties and righties alike. We aren't going to have a more favorable pitching matchup the rest of the way, so let's please not let this one get away. Sterling Hitchcock (4-4, 4.77) hosts Jeriome Robertson (15-7, 4.85) in St. Louis.

posted by Scott at 9:31 AM : |